Poll: Obama over 50% in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania
August 1st, 2012
07:37 AM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Obama over 50% in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania

(CNN) - President Barack Obama has a majority of voters backing him in three critical battleground states, according to a survey released Wednesday.

The Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll showed Obama leading his Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Florida 51%-45%, in Ohio 50%-44%, and in Pennsylvania 53%-42%. Florida and Ohio are considered toss-ups in November's general election, while Pennsylvania is rated "lean Obama" on CNN's Electoral Map.

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The poll indicated that only 4% of likely voters in each of the three states had yet to decide on a candidate to support. Among Romney backers, 10% in Florida and Ohio and 9% in Pennsylvania said they could change their mind before November. Eleven percent of Obama's supporters in Florida said they could change their minds, compared to 13% in Ohio and 15% in Pennsylvania.

"If today were November 6, President Barack Obama would sweep the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and – if history is any guide – into a second term in the Oval Office," Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, wrote in a statement accompanying the poll's release.

Brown cited better-than-average unemployment rates in Ohio and Florida as possible factors in Obama's lead there, writing that "The president is running better in the key swing states than he is nationally."

Among self-identified independents, Obama edges Romney in Florida 47%-46%, and Ohio 47%-44%. The president's lead among independents in Pennsylvania is more robust, 58%-36%.

A gender gap persists in all three states, where women are more likely to back Obama and men go stronger for Romney.

In all three battlegrounds, an enthusiasm gap persists between the two candidates. Sixty five percent of Obama supporters in Florida say they strongly favor the president, compared to 49% of Romney's backers who say they strongly favor the Republican candidate.

In Ohio, 60% were "strongly supporting" Obama, compared to 42% who said the same for Romney. And in Pennsylvania, 59% were strong supporters of Obama and 41% were strongly supporting Romney.

On the economy, voters are split between Obama and Romney. Forty seven percent of Floridians said Romney would do a better job handing economic issues, compared to 45% who named Obama.

In Ohio, 46% of voters said Obama would better handle to economy, and 45% picked Romney. Pennsylvanians gave Obama higher marks on the economy, with 48% naming the president as better on the economy and 44% naming Romney.

"All this matters because half of all likely voters say the economy is the most important issue to their vote, far ahead of any other issue. The saving grace for Gov. Mitt Romney is that he roughly breaks even with the president on who is best on the economy," Brown said.

The Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll was conducted by telephone July 24-30. In Florida, 1,177 likely voters were polled and the sampling error was plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. In Ohio, 1,193 likely voters were called with a sampling error of 2.8 percentage points. And in Pennsylvania, 1,168 likely voters were polled with a sampling error of 2.9 percentage points.

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Filed under: Florida • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Pennsylvania • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (166 Responses)
  1. BHPT

    Looks like Romney can't run on his Bain record OR his Massachusetts record OR his tax record -

    August 1, 2012 09:47 am at 9:47 am |
  2. kevin

    I remember a week before the election between President Carter and president Reagan the polls had Carter up by 8 points and we know what happen there. To me in order for a poll to be truely valid the sample has to be more than just a 1000 likely voters. It should be closer to 10,000 people who are definitely voting. Plus a pollester can pharse a question as to get a desired result instead of a true read. Polls are useful to an extend but I don't count on them. All I know is a lot of friends who voted for Obama aren't going to this time and they are all dems.

    August 1, 2012 09:47 am at 9:47 am |
  3. jag

    Good. Romney says one thing one minute and when he realizes it is a gaffe he takes another stand. Totally insincere and I believe he wants the presidency because he has everything else and this would be the last notch to inflate his head even more. These are the worst reasons to be head of a major industry like the U.S.A. Although, not impossible, but hard to relate to or have empathy for the average person when you have been handed so much.

    August 1, 2012 09:48 am at 9:48 am |
  4. Hey, Mittens got anymore of those 100K jobs at Bain for doing nothing? 'Call Me, Maybe?'

    And I thought the way to the WH for Team Robme was through Ohio and Florida? Nate still shows FL pale pink but that may not include this, yes, FOX trolls we know, "liberul lamestream media" poll.

    Maybe Mitt the Twit should have done a "stay and listen" tour to Ohio and Florida?

    Sorry, there is no "ballerina pony prancing" in the cornfields of Ohio, my bad,

    August 1, 2012 09:48 am at 9:48 am |
  5. Mini ME

    Poor Mexican DUDE!

    August 1, 2012 09:49 am at 9:49 am |
  6. Dawn

    Keep putting lies out there! You aren't fooling anyone by posting Nobama is ahead thinking people will believe it. Only the uninformed believe anything CNN says politically. NBC got popped for their political bias, CNN should too!

    August 1, 2012 09:49 am at 9:49 am |
  7. Larry Trickel

    This is the same poll that in 2010 said that the Republicans would pick up 7 to 10 seats in the House and 3 or 4 Senate seats. And how did that work out? If you look at the "sample group" stacked with twice as many democrats as republicans, now that should give you accurate results? Only CNN or CBS would report this crap!

    August 1, 2012 09:49 am at 9:49 am |
  8. insight iowa

    I'm praying Iowa wakes up soon... This Republican will be voting a straight Democratic Ticket. I don't vote on party alone. I vote on who is going to do the best job for all of America. God be with him.

    August 1, 2012 09:49 am at 9:49 am |
  9. Todd

    Either you like Obama or not, you have to admit, he has really perfected running a nearly flawless political race.
    Romney is putting his foot into his mouth much too often much like Kerry Did back in 2004.

    If you are on the fence, in a swing state, the one who stays cool and seems presidential will win.

    August 1, 2012 09:50 am at 9:50 am |
  10. Jim

    Romney is such an empty suit he ought to be hanging on the discount rack at Walmart.

    August 1, 2012 09:51 am at 9:51 am |
  11. Fair is Fair

    Hey Rudy... you don't really grasp the concept of sarcasm, do you?

    August 1, 2012 09:51 am at 9:51 am |
  12. Blah blah the wheel's off your trailer

    I believe someone just asked the simple question...how can these poll be accurate and did they take into consideration the disfranchised voters? Well, the poll is accurate because the majority of people in those states who were targeted by the teapublican voter suppression laws have now gotten the required ID's! Game over! he he he! Obama/Biden/Roberts 2012!

    August 1, 2012 09:52 am at 9:52 am |
  13. Steve

    They do not tell you the demographic used in the poll, the poll, like many others is skewed to advantage one candidate or the other. The only thing that counts is the tally on election day!

    August 1, 2012 09:52 am at 9:52 am |
  14. milan milenkovic

    My support to Pr. Obama re-election is my investment: what kind of FUTURE I want for this Country: I am fighting to have a strong middle class, health care reform, investment for clean energy… better education/ infrastructures / transportation…, the best innovation in the world , investment in R&D, to eliminate $ 15,6 trillion of US national debt … I have NO doubt that Pr. Obama will be re-elected this year ( Mr. Romney can get maximum 40-45% votes in November election)…

    August 1, 2012 09:53 am at 9:53 am |
  15. richwood7

    This is good news for America, the poor, the lwer class and the middle class. With the latest filibuster (this time over a judical nomine this time) the GOB has filibustered almost 100 times in four years. This has created a grid lock that helps them acheive their long standing goal, the complete destruction of the usa. We, the people (at least the 90% that are not the aristocracy) need to get the Senate filibuster proof by getting the Democrats back up to and hopefully over 60 and in the House a majority. That way the GOP fifth column will not be able to destroy the USA. Don't think I am gung-ho on everything the Dems do, their position on many Union issues is deploerable. Particulkar elimination the private ballot which is a disgace to everything America stands for. However, if you watch the movie "Soylant Green" which is the GOP which is a mecca and a GOP dream world the Dems are so far more pro USA than ANYTHING the GOP believes in.

    August 1, 2012 09:53 am at 9:53 am |
  16. allison

    "You didn't build that"; I'll have the most transparent administration..." "ATM's are taking your jobs" "Robotics are the future...they can mow your lawn, scrape old paint". Soylandra execs taking 50k bonuses before declaring bankruptcy, then taking the 5th when questioned. Most "green energy" firms going bankrupt after receiving stimulus funds. US treasury sells Chrysler stock at a loss of 1.3 billion to taxpayers. Executive privilege on Fast and Furious...gov't raiding Gibson Guitar, leaving Fender alone.....Napolitano admitting that terrorists do cross the border into the US......

    August 1, 2012 09:53 am at 9:53 am |
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