Poll: No instant impact from Ryan on horserace
August 15th, 2012
03:35 PM ET
2 years ago

Poll: No instant impact from Ryan on horserace

(CNN) - A new national poll indicates that Mitt Romney's announcement of House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan as his running mate has not made an immediate impact on the race for the White House.

According to Gallup, 47% of registered voters supported Romney and 45% supported President Barack Obama in the four days of their daily tracking poll following Romney's Saturday morning announcement that the seven-term congressman from Wisconsin would be his running mate on the Republican ticket.

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That's little changed from the four days before the August 11 announcement, when numbers from the Gallup Daily Tracking poll indicated 46% of registered voters saying they would back Romney and 45% saying they supported the president. The slight change is well within the survey's sampling error.

Will the Republican ticket enjoy a delayed bounce?

"While the initial indication is no increase in Romney's support after naming Ryan, the data suggest the possibility that Romney may get a delayed bounce, as he fared slightly better in Aug. 13-14 Gallup tracking than in Aug. 11-12 tracking," says the release from Gallup.

Neither Gallup polling or CNN/ORC polling found any real change in the race for the White House immediately after the naming of Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as the running mates in the 2008 campaign. But polling did indicate that the vice presidential choices had a bigger impact in the 1996, 2000 and 2004 elections.

The Gallup Daily Tracking Poll was conducted August 7-14, with 1,863 registered voters questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

– CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report


Filed under: 2012 • Paul Ryan
soundoff (32 Responses)
  1. Fair is Fair

    Gallup has Romney ahead, eh? You'd never know it from the commenters on his site.

    August 15, 2012 03:43 pm at 3:43 pm |
  2. T. A. Martin

    I wish these articles could find better images for their lead-in.

    It looks like Ryan is grimacing in this photo.

    August 15, 2012 03:51 pm at 3:51 pm |
  3. TheIndependent

    Romney + Ryan = You pay much less taxes and become richer if you are super rich. You pay a lot more taxes to support the super rich's tax cuts, pay more for your kids' education because of substantial cuts in student financial assistance, lose your current job to outsourcing and get less unemployment benefits than are available today, support your parents because they won't have any more or as much medicare or medicaid to support themselves, support your college educated kids because their jobs have gone overseas, etc. etc.

    August 15, 2012 03:56 pm at 3:56 pm |
  4. TheIndependent

    Romney + Ryan = You pay much less taxes and become richer if you are super rich. But if you are NOT super rich, then you pay a lot more taxes to support the super rich's tax cuts, pay more for your kids' education because of substantial cuts in student financial assistance, lose your current job to outsourcing and get less unemployment benefits than are available today, support your parents because they won't have any more or as much medicare or medicaid to support themselves, support your college educated kids because their jobs have gone overseas, etc. etc.

    August 15, 2012 03:58 pm at 3:58 pm |
  5. IF YOU SIGNED GROVER'S PLEDGE, YOU ARE A TRAITOR TO THE U.S.

    This is bad new for Willard. Sarah Palin gave a bigger bump to McCain's campaign after her selection, albeit she was a complete imbicil.

    August 15, 2012 03:58 pm at 3:58 pm |
  6. Jon

    No liberals trying to put down this poll that shows Romney ahead by 2% ... interesting

    August 15, 2012 03:59 pm at 3:59 pm |
  7. Rudy NYC

    Paul Ryan appears to be a little out of his element when he is confronted with a crowd that is not 100% behind him. He is going to need to climb the learning curve fast. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney is still climbing his. Mitt's modus operandi is deny/delay, deny/delay.

    August 15, 2012 03:59 pm at 3:59 pm |
  8. Sniffit

    Actually, Nate Silver has already explained that statistically speaking, all that is showing for the announcement of Ryan so far is a statistically below-average bounce. Cherry-picking Gallup doesn't count, CNN.

    August 15, 2012 04:00 pm at 4:00 pm |
  9. Reggiedw

    Well Romney has gone ahead of Obama now so it did make a difference. It will get a higher bounce so it is going to be goodbye to Obama. See you in Chicago!!!!!!! But I suppose if it was Obama who had gone ahead it would definitely be headlines news for CNN.

    August 15, 2012 04:06 pm at 4:06 pm |
  10. Desmond, a Canadian

    So, the 47% of this poll have shown that their brains are not functioning right. Tends to happen when some new spanner is thrown into the works.

    August 15, 2012 04:07 pm at 4:07 pm |
  11. truth hurts

    >Sniffit – Actually, Nate Silver has already explained that statistically speaking, all that is showing for the announcement of >Ryan so far is a statistically below-average bounce.

    not surprising as not all that many people know who paul ryan is which is why obama and the left is in a spint to smear him before the american people get to see, hear and know him.

    >Cherry-picking Gallup doesn't count, CNN.

    polls that have numbers you don't like never seem to count.

    August 15, 2012 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  12. Joy

    This article is so UNTRUE. Go to Real Clear Politics and check out numbers from last week to this week. It is unbelievable how biased CNN has become. I was a long time viewer not any more. I wold bet money they only call Democrats and Independents for their poll.ing Please people check out other polls to get accurate information.

    August 15, 2012 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  13. Hillcrester

    Gallup has had Obama and Romney neck-and-neck, with the small difference within the margin of error, for several weeks. Nothing has changed. Expect to see a Romney bump during/following his convention, and the same for Obama when the Dems convene.

    What is more meaningful is the polling in the 10 "battleground" states that are not pretty much committed to either candidate yet. You can find those data, not easy to locate, on the RCP web site.

    August 15, 2012 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  14. Sniffit

    "not surprising as not all that many people know who paul ryan is which is"

    First, I don't believe that for a second. Yes, he's less well known. However, he made tons of headlines a few years ago with the SS privatization plan that even Bush called "irresponsible" and his Pathology of Plutocracy budget has been the subject of debate for 2 or so years now...nto to mention that the CouponCare Crapshoot has caused all sorts of problems for him and the GOP/Teatrolls in polls and gotten tons of coverage in the media and even cost them an election or two, particularly one in upstate NY. Second, even if you were correct to characterize it as not many people knowing him, then that would be an admission that he's either a stupid pick and/or that it's just Mittens trying to be even more secretive with his campaign and what his plans might be if elected.

    August 15, 2012 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  15. Mitt the Twit and his side kick

    it reallly doesn't matter about the polls.. the person that wins gets the most electoral votes... 2 point gap does not say alot... cause based on all the maps I have seen.. Obama has a path to victory.. Mitt the Twit is behind

    August 15, 2012 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  16. Rudy NYC

    Joy ranted:

    This article is so UNTRUE. Go to Real Clear Politics and check out numbers from last week to this week. It is unbelievable how biased CNN has become. I was a long time viewer not any more. I wold bet money they only call Democrats and Independents for their poll.ing Please people check out other polls to get accurate information.
    -------------
    Fox News has Obama up by 9 points in their latest poll.

    August 15, 2012 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  17. Sniffit

    "polls that have numbers you don't like never seem to count."

    That's untrue on its face. I frequently post all the polls I can find in response to you and others claiming that Mittens is ahead, both ones showing Mittens ahead and ones showing Obama ahead...both the mean and median, so far, have consistently proven you wrong when you assert that Mittens is ahead. The point is to look at the global picture, not just an isolated event.

    August 15, 2012 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  18. CanadaONE

    HI HITLER! – nice piture – YES IT IS A REAL IMPACT

    if you put a little mustache under Romney's nose IT WILL SCARE THE HECK OUT OF YOU

    Ryan looks like he has a learning disorder – has he gotten treatment yet ? Obama Care covers it!

    August 15, 2012 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  19. Expat American

    Ryan will have an ‘energy shot’ effect. A quick burst of speed immediately you injest it; but in a few hours, you feel really tired….of Romney.

    August 15, 2012 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  20. Randy, San Francisco

    Flip flopping Romney is already distancing himself from Ryan's Budget and Medicare Plans. Buyer's remorse?

    August 15, 2012 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  21. Expat American

    The significant 'bump' that followed Palin was due much in part to her unabashed bigoted and racist ramblings which served as an energizing call to arms for the red state trailer park cross burners and inbreeds.

    Ryan, while I disagree with much of his platform, is an intelligent man and thank god he isn’t Palin.

    August 15, 2012 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  22. Sniffit

    "Flip flopping Romney is already distancing himself from Ryan's Budget and Medicare Plans. Buyer's remorse?"

    Nah, not buyer's remorse really. What he's trying to do is go on offense first so that when Obama's team and his supporters come back pointing out the flaws with Ryan's plan, which Mittens said he would sign and was voted for twice by the GOP en massse, Mittens' campaign will do a couple things: claim that it's just Obama and the Dems/liberals attacking back because he attacked first (when in reality we've been attacking Ryan's budget mercilessly for a while now), feign outrage about the negativity, pretend that Ryan's budget isn't what they're running on and is therefore irrelevant and generally try to make a much of the Medicare issue in hopes voters say "meh, both sides are out to lunch here so it's a wash." He CAN'T win on Medicare...even prominent conservatives are saying this....so he's trying to create a plausible scecnario for making it a non-issue later.

    August 15, 2012 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  23. Sniffit

    sorry, that shoud've said "generally try to make a MESS of the Medicare issue in hopes voters say "meh, both sides are out to lunch here so it's a wash." "

    August 15, 2012 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  24. John Hix

    If the government wants to get people to vote then give them a tax deduction for voting or a 20 when they leave the polls or a couple of lottery tickets or food stamps.

    August 15, 2012 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  25. BLKMANinAmerica

    LMBAO and there wont be any either, it seems the only stupid people here are repuks for believing another LIE and trying to make it REALITY.

    August 15, 2012 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
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