Poll: All tied up in Wisconsin
August 22nd, 2012
04:19 PM ET
2 years ago

Poll: All tied up in Wisconsin

(CNN) – A new poll is offering more evidence that the battle for Wisconsin and its 10 electoral votes is up in the air.

According to a new Marquette Law School survey released Wednesday, 49% of likely voters in the Badger State say they'll vote for President Barack Obama, with 46% backing Republican challenger Mitt Romney. The survey's three point edge for Obama is within the poll's sampling error.

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The survey was conducted August 16-19, entirely after Romney announced House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan as his running mate on the GOP ticket. Ryan is a seven-term congressman from Wisconsin. In Marquette's previous poll, conducted in early August before the Ryan announcement, Obama held a 50%-45% advantage.

"The two-point shift in Romney's direction is within the margin of error for the poll but suggests Ryan's addition to the ticket may have slightly increased Romney's chances in Wisconsin," said Professor Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll.

According to a CNN/ORC International survey, which was released last week and which was also conducted entirely after Romney added Ryan to the GOP ticket, Obama held a 49%-45% advantage over Romney. The president's four point margin over the presumptive Republican presidential nominee was within the survey's sampling error.

Last Thursday CNN turned Wisconsin from "lean Obama" to true "toss up" on its electoral map.

Obama won Wisconsin by 14 points over Sen. John McCain in the 2008 presidential election.

In the race to succeed retiring four-term Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl, the poll indicates the Republicans currently have the edge. According to the survey, former Gov. Tommy Thompson holds a 50%-41% lead over Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin. Thompson won the state's August 14 GOP Senate primary.

The Marquette Law School poll questioned 706 registered voters, including 576 likely voters, by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, with a sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for likely voters.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama • Wisconsin
soundoff (26 Responses)
  1. Pete

    If Wisconsinites don't go for Pres.Obama they deserve Walker and all his destructiveness that goes with it and ya voted Ryan to the congress 7 times,real idiots!!

    August 22, 2012 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  2. WILLARD MILTON ROMNEY IS A COWARD & TAX EVADER

    Willard Capone didn't get a big bump since announcing Paul "Throw Momma From The Train" Ryan. You would have thought Willard Capone would have a huge lead in Wisconsin. Apparently not. Team Obama, time to release some ads of Paul "Throw Momma From The Train" Ryan saying stimulus doesn't work, but then in asking for money in secrecy. Better yet, release the footage of him in 2002 saying stimulus works. So the question is, stimulus works under Bush but not under Obama?

    August 22, 2012 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  3. 8.3% unemployment - Over 8% 42 Straight months and the Obama Jobs DEPRESSION continues unabated

    YIKES!! Obama wins by 14% in 2008 and now Wisconsin is a statistical TIE?!! Obama is in REAL TROUBLE and he and the Democrats know it. Romney has just barely started to campaign and Obama has been at it for over a year now.

    Looks like the American people HAVE been paying attention and know a loser like Obama when they see one. Four more years of Obama cluelessness is even too much for many Democrats!

    August 22, 2012 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  4. THE truth

    Keep dreaming lib media complex. Hell will freeze over before a democrat wins WI. Have you forgotten what dems just put WI though with that BS recall? Wasted millions, vandalized the capital, then tried to steal the election.

    August 22, 2012 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  5. American People

    The GOP plan for the American People: Turn all the Old, Sick, Poor, Female, Non-white, Non-christian, Unemployed and Gay people into slaves. Then whip them until they are Young, Healthy, Rich, Male, White, Christian, Employed, and Straight. Or until they are dead. Then turn them into Soylent Green to feed the military.

    August 22, 2012 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  6. Mr. Moderate

    So naming someone from Wisconsin as his running made did not have a statistically meaningful impact? That's not good for Romney.

    August 22, 2012 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  7. Joe from CT, not Lieberman

    Didja ever think the bump may be because the people there are tired of Ryan representing them and want the rest of the Country to know what a mook he is?

    August 22, 2012 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  8. 1twinsfan

    That's not much of a bump.

    August 22, 2012 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  9. Marie MD

    Ouch! Didn't the bully animal abuser bishop pick the worst candidate (not that any of the others were gems) so he could bring Wisconsin into the fold?
    From what I have read in newspapers people in WI, except for the boy toy district, don't like him that much.

    August 22, 2012 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  10. Iamnotfooled

    "Life is like a box of chocolates , you never know what you are going to get", Come on Wisconsin --Ryan said : "We will not duct the tough issues , we will lead". Well he has flip-flopped on many issues already. These guys just put President Obama down but don't have any REAL PLAN.

    August 22, 2012 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  11. Gurgyl

    Obama12. Period.

    August 22, 2012 04:54 pm at 4:54 pm |
  12. rrd

    Well before Ryan's announcement the RCP had Obama +3.5, last week it was Obama +2.5, today it's Obama +1.5.

    August 22, 2012 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  13. BlkPwr817

    Voter suppression by the GOP will fix that. Or will it? Funny how many Wisconsin citizens don't care for Ryan either...

    August 22, 2012 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  14. Lisa P

    You know things are starting to look a little desperate for the GOP in Wisconsin because our Republican Attorney General is trying to revive the Republican voter suppression law that has already been shot down twice in state court (two Federal cases pending). And sadly, with a thin State Supreme Court majority that has finally revealed itself to be both partisan (R, of course) and shameless, AG Van Hollen and his political masters might just get their wish. Then all they'll need to do is to get the support of a majority of those they *permit* to vote; elections are soooo much easier that way.

    August 22, 2012 05:14 pm at 5:14 pm |
  15. 1twinswin

    Guess Romney should have gone with Portman.

    August 22, 2012 05:23 pm at 5:23 pm |
  16. SOUTHERN HOTTIE

    Aren't Wisconsinites also known as cheese heads?

    August 22, 2012 05:24 pm at 5:24 pm |
  17. KM

    I have learned a lot about the electoral system and how candidates win elections over the last decade. Get to 270 and win the election. Right now the President has supposedly 237 electoral votes that is solidly Democrat. Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Mexico is leaning Democrat and they total 41 electoral votes. President Obama can lose all the others and still win the Presidency. Governor Romney would need to have those same states to lean Republican in order for him to have a chance, if not, nothing else matters and President Obama gets reelected.

    August 22, 2012 05:25 pm at 5:25 pm |
  18. Anonymous

    All tied up in Wisconsin, CNN? That pig ain't gonna fly ... the internals within the polls suggest otherwise. Obama will win. But thanks for pushing the GOP talking points. It's always refreshing to read biased reporting day after day. We Americans expect nothing less from our media.

    August 22, 2012 05:30 pm at 5:30 pm |
  19. just sayin

    an incumbent president, four years of failure, polling way below 50%, unemployment heading up, economy heading down....
    obama's new campaign song is now slip slid'n away.... start packing obama. the charade is over.

    August 22, 2012 05:48 pm at 5:48 pm |
  20. rrd

    KM

    I have learned a lot about the electoral system and how candidates win elections over the last decade. Get to 270 and win the election. Right now the President has supposedly 237 electoral votes that is solidly Democrat. Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Mexico is leaning Democrat and they total 41 electoral votes. President Obama can lose all the others and still win the Presidency. Governor Romney would need to have those same states to lean Republican in order for him to have a chance, if not, nothing else matters and President Obama gets reelected.
    -----------------------------

    As of today:
    Obama has 221 (solid and likely)
    Romney has 191 (solid and likely)
    The big thing here is there are 126 that are a toss up. That could make or break either candidate.

    August 22, 2012 05:58 pm at 5:58 pm |
  21. T'sah From Virginia

    Obama will win Wisconsin and RomRyanHOOD will be insulted when it happens! The American people are not going to allow this election to be bought!!!

    Obama 2012 – The Only Trusted Way Forward!!!

    August 22, 2012 06:16 pm at 6:16 pm |
  22. scott

    Not looking good for Obummie. I guess people are tired of his do nothing politics, spending tax payers dollars on failed stimulus, raiding medicare for his own health plan, arming the drug cartels, giving money away and outsourcing jobs. OBama a real loser, vote Romney/Ryan for a better and happier America.

    August 22, 2012 08:30 pm at 8:30 pm |
  23. scott

    KM

    I have learned a lot about the electoral system and how candidates win elections over the last decade. Get to 270 and win the election. Right now the President has supposedly 237 electoral votes that is solidly Democrat. Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Mexico is leaning Democrat and they total 41 electoral votes. President Obama can lose all the others and still win the Presidency. Governor Romney would need to have those same states to lean Republican in order for him to have a chance, if not, nothing else matters and President Obama gets reelected.
    _______________________________________________________________________
    Wishful thinking, al lRomney needs is Fla and Ohio and he will reach the delegate count. You better go back and study and rethink you point. Virginia and NC will also go for Romney, the military vote in Hampton road will give him the state, I live down here, most of the military cannot stand OBama.

    August 22, 2012 08:34 pm at 8:34 pm |
  24. Jane

    Hope the Rombot's enjoying the "bump", nationally and in Ryan's home state, that he got when he picked Ryan....oh wait. Heh.

    August 22, 2012 08:50 pm at 8:50 pm |
  25. S.B. Stein E.B. NJ

    This might be the Ryan bump that Romney was looking for. I don't think it will last because there has been a push by the Obama campaign to get people out to vote.

    August 22, 2012 09:29 pm at 9:29 pm |
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