CNN Poll: Obama 49%-Romney 47% among likely voters
August 24th, 2012
04:00 PM ET
2 years ago

CNN Poll: Obama 49%-Romney 47% among likely voters

Washington (CNN) - With three days to go until the start of the Republican convention, President Barack Obama and GOP challenger Mitt Romney remain deadlocked in the race for the White House, according to a new national survey.

A CNN/ORC International poll released Friday also indicates Romney's favorable rating among those likely to vote in the presidential election is in the same ballpark as the president's, and the survey also points to a slightly higher level of enthusiasm for Republicans than Democrats.

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According to the poll, 49% of likely voters say they're backing Obama, with 47% supporting Romney. The two point margin is within the survey's sampling error, meaning the race is a statistical tie.

Among the larger pool of registered voters, some of whom will stay at home on Election Day, the survey indicates the president holds a 52%-43% lead. That number is little changed from CNN's previous poll, conducted in early August, before Romney named House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan as his running mate.

"Likely voters have traditionally been a more Republican group in past elections because they tend to turn out in higher numbers than Democrats, and 2012 looks like it is no exception. This explains why the margin between President Obama and Mitt Romney is smaller among likely voters," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "But it is a mistake to say that the race has tightened in the past few weeks, given the lack of movement in the results for registered voters."

In an election, it all comes down to turnout, and that's what a likely voter model is all about. The more enthusiastic you are about voting, the likelier you are to actually vote in November. According to the poll, 35% of registered Republicans questioned say they are extremely enthusiastic about voting, six points higher than the 29% of Democrats who feel the same way.

Four years ago, two-thirds of Democrats said they were extremely or very enthusiastic about voting, giving them an 18-point lead over Republicans that helped Obama overcome the fact that turnout has historically been higher among Republicans. Now the two parties are evenly divided.

"Enthusiasm is down among key elements of the Obama coalition from the last presidential election, indicating that some of his supporters are not likely to vote unless something changes. The challenge for the president in his convention is to fire up his base and to turn those potential stay-at-homes into likely voters. If he can do so, the likely voter model may not work as much in Romney's favor in September as it does in August," adds Holland.

In the horserace, 48% of likely voters who are independents say they support Romney, with 45% backing Obama. The gender gap and generational divides seen in polling so far this cycle continue, with the president holding a 54%-42% lead among female likely votes and Romney holding a 53%-43% lead among male likely voters. Obama has a 55%-43% advantage among those under 50, with Romney holding a 50%-45% margin among likely voters 50 and older.

"The two candidates are in a dead heat in the national horserace, tied among likely voters who call themselves independents and tied in the suburbs," says Chief National Correspondent John King.

"Which means the conventions are their best chance to nudge the numbers a bit before we get to what is likely to be a decisive series of debates. The race could break near the end, but heading into the conventions it is as close as can be."

Eighty-seven percent of likely voters say they're minds are made up, with just over one in ten saying they could change their minds on which candidate they'll back in the presidential contest.

The challenge for Romney at his convention, which starts Monday in Tampa, Florida, is to boost his favorable ratings and re-establish the Republican brand nationwide.

According to the poll, 50% of likely voters see Romney in a favorable way, with 46% saying they see him in an unfavorable light. Fifty-two percent say they have a favorable opinion of the president, with 47% saying the see him in an unfavorable way.

While there's not much daylight between the two candidates in this poll when it comes to their favorable/unfavorable ratings, there's more of a disparity between the two political parties in the minds of likely voters.

The poll indicates likely voters are evenly split 47%-47% on how the view the Democratic party. But the GOP has a 43%-51% favorable/unfavorable rating.

As for the running mates, likely voters are divided on Vice President Biden (46%-47%), with a plurality having a favorable opinion of Ryan, the seven-term congressman from Wisconsin (45%-39%).

As for Romney's choice of Ryan as his running mate, 51% of registered voters rate Ryan as an excellent or good pick. And 52% believe he is qualified to be president if necessary.

"From a historical perspective, Ryan ranks in the middle of the pack among recent vice presidential nominees," says Holland. "He's not as well-received as Joe Biden or Dick Cheney initially were, but he's definitely not another Dan Quayle. Joe Lieberman is the running mate who put up numbers most like the ones Ryan now gets."

The survey also indicates the president's approval rating at 50%, unchanged from early August.

According to the poll, two-thirds of likely voters say if elected, Romney will work hard to implement GOP polices on the economy, and six in ten say he would make a real effort to enact Republican proposals on health care. But only 43% feel he will work hard to implement the Republican party's position on abortion.

The social issue has dominated news coverage this week, following controversial comments from Rep. Todd Akin, the Republican Senate nominee in Missouri. The six-term congressman, who has deep ties to Christian conservatives, came under fire following comments in a TV interview Sunday when he said that a woman's body is capable of preventing pregnancy in cases of "legitimate rape" while explaining his stance that there should be no abortion exemption for rape or incest.

The survey indicates that 83% of Americans say that abortion should be legal in cases of rape or incest, with similar numbers believing abortion should be legal when the life or health of the mother is endangered.

"Those aren't topics that Americans like to think about, but the recent controversy over Akin's remarks may have provided a stark reminder to many Americans that there are at least a few circumstances under which they support legal abortion," says Holland.

As a result, the number who believe that abortion should be illegal in all circumstances has dropped from 21% last year to 15% now. Surprisingly, the debate also appears to have boosted the number of Americans who say that abortion should be legal under any circumstances - from 25% a year ago to 35% now, the highest level of support for unrestricted abortion since mid-1990s.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International Wednesday and Thursday (August 22-23), with 1,055 adult Americans, including 924 registered voters and 719 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points, with a sampling error of plus or minus 3.5% points for likely voters.

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Filed under: 2012 • CNN/ORC poll • Mitt Romney • President Obama
soundoff (221 Responses)
  1. Pete

    Hey republicans the MSM is doing this poll thing just to make it interesting,it isn't as close as you think..Real checks show the president well ahead of this used car salesman.Now he made snide remarks of not being questioned about where he was born in Michigan and not showing his birth certificate,so you hypocritices think its cute,not I ,but I'm intelligent and not a republican,thank God!!Let's see if these nitwits come up with some tax papers or he's toast during the debates,hey Romney put up or shut up ya mormon leper!!!

    August 24, 2012 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  2. stallion

    for all that is wrong with the economy,and obama still holds a slight lead.mitt romney will never be president.

    August 24, 2012 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  3. OCCUPY WALLSTREET FOR CONGRESS

    I'll vote for Romney because I want him to attack Iran so my military stock portfolio skyrockets and I can join the ranks of the top 10% of americans in cheating the rest of the 90%!!!

    August 24, 2012 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  4. CT

    Based on the last 4 years NOBODY should support Obama!

    August 24, 2012 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  5. disgustedvet

    Wonder what that percentage is in "real time " ?

    August 24, 2012 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  6. Lenny Pincus

    52-43 among RV. Near 50 among LV. Leading in 10 of the 12 battleground states. That's a pretty odd statistical tie.

    August 24, 2012 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  7. rosaadriana

    What is wrong with eveyone! Get out and vote, it matters! 52- 43 among total but only 49 – 47 among likely voters is messed up! Dont you care about your future? Are willing to take a chance on Romney and Ryan actually doing what they say they will do? Do you really think it wont affect you? Cutting taxes on the wealthy is only going to increase the debt and increases taxes on you! Laying off government workers is only going to increase unemployment and have collateral damage on the economy. Dont you want investment in education, new technologies and infrastructure or do you want to live in a country that is falling apart where everyone works at McDonalds for minimum wage. Wake up and get out there and vote!

    August 24, 2012 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  8. Greg Morgan

    It's a sad commentary on the American electorate that so many people are still willing to support a team that has performed as poorly as Romney's.

    August 24, 2012 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  9. Charles

    I think this writer should have used the word horserace a few more times, I didn't quite get the message.

    A horserace the MSM want and a horserace they shall have! 3 weeks before the election we will start getting real poll numbers in order for the polling outfits to protect their reputations. They will claim just as they did in 2008: "We were pretty accurate in our general election polling." Leaving out that they had been way off for six months.

    Polls that are release now are to set a narrative that the MSM wants to present.

    August 24, 2012 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  10. Iamnotfooled

    "I don't want to get wonky on you, but we haven't run the numbers on that yet", - Paul Ryan on balancing the budget.
    Brit Hume asked him this on FOX News.

    August 24, 2012 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  11. AmericanWaxwing

    NO MO BO. I'm voting Romney & Ryan in November. No shame. Time for new, jobs-friendly leadership in Washington.

    August 24, 2012 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  12. Charles

    A 2 point Obama lead is a tie.

    A 2 point Romney lead is a 2 point Romney lead.

    August 24, 2012 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  13. 1nsite

    How can anyone take Romney seruously? He's the epitome of a waffler. And Ryan is kidding himself with this transparency nonsense about Romney. The man can't even follow the lead of his own father. Where are those tax returns?

    August 24, 2012 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  14. Jesus Christ Superstar

    AL in West Palm Beach, FL
    I am a Democrat, I was not even registered to vote in 2008 and I can't wait to cast my ballot for Obama....I am under 30.

    Does this poll take my friends and I into consideration? NOPE!!!

    I agree with you Al. They don't seem to realize here in South Florida (Broward) we really don't care for the Mormon & Senior Killer.

    August 24, 2012 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  15. allenwoll

    A vote for Ro-Money \ Ryaynd is a vote FOR PLUTOCRACY, the END of the United States as we know it. . There will soon after be mandatory lessons given on how to genuflect before your betters.

    Vote for these two creatures and you may as well then start selecting your "stylish Serfware" and pick out your new one room hovel on the nearest, lowest floodplain ! ! ! . Learn to walk to your place of slavery.

    For the illiterate - "Plutocracy" means "The rule of a nation exclusively by the Wealthy". . We are frighteningly close to that now and these two will seal the job forever ! ! !

    August 24, 2012 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  16. Scott

    Do people not realize how easy it is to get polls to say anything you want? Just take an intro to statistics class in college. Media is going to try to make this sound like a real race for ratings,when it's obvious Romney doesn't stand a chance.

    August 24, 2012 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  17. KEL

    People always seem to forget that its the electoral votes that count. If you dont win in Iowa, wisconson, florida, michigan or Ohio, then your vote pretty much doesnt count. Unless Romney wins all five of these state Obama will win the 270 votes he needs in a landslide. Its already decided.

    August 24, 2012 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  18. rmarcb

    yes the country will be in great shape after obama wins and we are 10000000000000000000000 dollars in debt that is owed to china. i think i will max out my credit cards and hope that I can pay it tomorrow..... lots of luck

    August 24, 2012 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  19. Charles

    "JC in Western U.S.

    The first two weeks of September, 2008, John McCain led Barack Obama. Same thing, different year."

    -

    No, JC, the pollsters told us Mccain was leading.

    That's called creating a horserace.

    August 24, 2012 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  20. Concerned Ma, Resident

    If Romney wins we are in BIGGER Trouble than we are now. I have no idea who they are polling..

    August 24, 2012 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  21. SugarKube

    WOW. Obama down from a double digit lead just 6 months ago. America is waking up.

    August 24, 2012 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  22. The GOP Voucher Plan will include a "Legalize Euthanasia" clause and a free gun to commit suicide

    The seniors will need it when they run out of money for health care.

    August 24, 2012 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  23. Skyler

    Nothing a DNC convention and a few debates won't cure.

    August 24, 2012 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  24. bspurloc

    Obama’s Kansas grandfather fought in WWII. Romney’s grandfather was hiding out in Mexico with his wives.
    mittens has no chance. the christian taliban war on women will never let up. FORWARDS we go not backwards.

    August 24, 2012 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  25. Nick San Diego

    Every week these polls go in every which direction.
    Just kick back ,relax and watch Obama finish cleaning up the mess Bush left him.

    August 24, 2012 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
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