August 24th, 2012
05:04 PM ET
2 years ago

John King's CNN/ORC Poll Cheat Sheet

Washington (CNN) - Tied in the horserace.

Tied among voters who call themselves independents.

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– Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

And tied in the suburbs, where close presidential elections get decided.

Seventy-four days to go and our new CNN/ORC poll shows a presidential race that is as close as can be.

Some highlights:

*Among likely voters, 49 percent say they plan to vote for the Obama-Biden ticket; 47 percent choose Romney-Ryan.

*87 percent of likely voters say their minds are made up; 11 percent say they could change.

*52 percent of likely voters view President Obama favorably; 47 percent have an unfavorable view.

*50 percent view Governor Romney favorably; 46 percent unfavorably.

So does that 49 percent to 47 percent national horserace tell us anything about how this race will end?

History suggests: NO.

After all, the Obama-McCain race was tied four years ago just before the nominating conventions kicked off. It was not a close race in the end.

In 1992, President George H. W. Bush held a small lead over Ross Perot and Bill Clinton as the conventions got under way. Yes, Clinton was running third then, but he ultimately won that topsy-turvy race.

And in 1988, Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis was running ahead (+8) of then Vice President Bush heading into convention season. Dukakis ended up losing 40 states.

That horserace history is why heading into the GOP convention, team Romney is far more interested in improving their candidate's "image" rankings – meaning how he fares when people are asked if he is likeable, or if he shares their values.

soundoff (28 Responses)
  1. SOUTHERN SNOTTIE

    >Dukakis ended up losing 40 states.

    Obama will pull another Dukakis on the Democrat Party. You heard it here first.

    August 24, 2012 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  2. Mor Man NO!

    Hey Mitt, your not a CHRISTIAN, Mormans do not beleive that Jesus Christ is the Son of God. John 3:16

    Don't trust Mormans, a true Christian from the South

    August 24, 2012 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  3. Sniffit

    Where's the polls showing how many people are likely to be disenfranchised by GOP/Teatrolls voter suppression legislation?

    August 24, 2012 05:17 pm at 5:17 pm |
  4. Sniffit

    Where's the polls showing how many people are likely to be disenfranchised by GOP/Teatrolls voter suppression legislation? I mean, everyone knows that the GOPers/Teatrolls read the polls as follows: "Obama has a 2% lead? Cool...cuz we probably killed 5% of his votes."

    August 24, 2012 05:19 pm at 5:19 pm |
  5. John

    It is truly astounding. Romney's tax plan would increase taxes on nearly everyone but himself (the 1%) and only to cut his own taxes further, and yet nearly half the nation would let him do it to them. Bend over, boys, you KNOW he's gonna shaft you.

    August 24, 2012 05:27 pm at 5:27 pm |
  6. kayla

    you guys could kick rocks, say what you want , the repugs are trying everything to win this election, they will fail, because we the people will vote for president obama, not the 1% billionaires , you heard it from me
    si se puede.

    August 24, 2012 05:32 pm at 5:32 pm |
  7. noteaparty4me

    Romney went there because he is there...RACIST!

    August 24, 2012 05:36 pm at 5:36 pm |
  8. SOUTHERN SNOTTIE

    Sniffit
    Where's the polls showing how many people are likely to be disenfranchised by GOP/Teatrolls voter suppression legislation? I mean, everyone knows that the GOPers/Teatrolls read the polls as follows: "Obama has a 2% lead? Cool...cuz we probably killed 5% of his votes."
    ============================================================================================
    Technically you can't kill dead people, a large Democrat voting block. But you sure can keep them from voting.

    August 24, 2012 05:37 pm at 5:37 pm |
  9. Travis

    "Tied in the horserace."

    More like tired of the horserace.

    August 24, 2012 05:39 pm at 5:39 pm |
  10. GI Joe

    They're complaining that the major news channels won't show Queen Ann, but they bad mouth them when they don't want to use them for their propaganda.

    Look at me, I've been sick, blah blah blah - lots of women get sick with no health care - they lose their jobs and go on welfare to feed their kids and are called bad names by the likes of the RMoneys. YUCK. I'd rather watch Golden Girls re-runs than ever see that snooty woman again in my lifetime.

    August 24, 2012 05:42 pm at 5:42 pm |
  11. Sniffit

    "“The state is going to hell,” Rogers, who is a member of the GOP executive committee and is currently in Tampa for the RNC convention, wrote in a June 8 email released by Progress Now New Mexico. Former Republican gubernatorial candidate Col. Allen Weh “would not have dishonored Col Custer in this manner,” he wrote."

    And do you know what Gov. Martinez was going to do that set this racist Teatroll bigot off like that? Simply meeting with Native American tribal leaders.

    August 24, 2012 05:43 pm at 5:43 pm |
  12. Sniffit

    "Technically you can't kill dead people, a large Democrat voting block. But you sure can keep them from voting."

    ZERO EVIDENCE. Nice try though. Is Von Spakovsky sitting in your lap?

    Next.

    August 24, 2012 05:45 pm at 5:45 pm |
  13. Lizzie

    Mor Man NO, so you don't believe Harry Reid either, how about the 2 Muslims in the House of Representatives. Or is it because he is a republican.

    August 24, 2012 05:57 pm at 5:57 pm |
  14. Lizzie

    GI Joe, when was the last time a liberal or a democrat done anything good with HIS OWN money for a needy person. It has been shown that republicans give MORE money to the needy then all of the dem/lib. Combined.

    August 24, 2012 06:01 pm at 6:01 pm |
  15. SOUTHERN SNOTTIE

    Sniffit
    "Technically you can't kill dead people, a large Democrat voting block. But you sure can keep them from voting."
    ZERO EVIDENCE.
    ================================================================================
    Well of course. Nobody could ever ask them for an ID! Nice try though.

    Now that IDs can be asked for, legitimate voters can vote and know their vote will count and that they will not be disenfranchised. Democrats are going to have to find other ways to steal elections. I'm sure they are already working on it.

    August 24, 2012 06:02 pm at 6:02 pm |
  16. ron

    Since a good number of republicans left the party to become "independents" I can understand the numbers. We'll see if republican women vote the way they "say" they will when their male, republican counterpart is around OR if they vote their own interests. Should be a really interesting stat on election night! (But, don't expect them to say they voted for Obama on exit polls. Their "old man" would knock them upside the head!)

    August 24, 2012 06:27 pm at 6:27 pm |
  17. Indy

    Sniffit said in last post
    "Mr. Plastic Fantastic has no emotions. And who ever heard of horseback riding as a form of MS therapy before this?"

    I dunno...I've heard that straddling a $77K annual tax return is pretty relaxing.
    Don't roofrack me bro, but your response is just downright funny !! LMAO,best laugh of the day

    August 24, 2012 06:37 pm at 6:37 pm |
  18. rob

    @GI Joe
    Get used to seeing her Joey, she will be the next FLOTUS.

    August 24, 2012 06:45 pm at 6:45 pm |
  19. barry

    Oh they forgot to mention that Jimmy Carter had a 10 point lead at this time. I guess they just overlooked that.

    August 24, 2012 06:55 pm at 6:55 pm |
  20. Independent Voter

    Romney will not win. Him and his VP pick have and continue to be revealed. Hey, where are the tax return?

    August 24, 2012 07:07 pm at 7:07 pm |
  21. Elizabeth

    I'm voting for Obama.

    August 24, 2012 08:44 pm at 8:44 pm |
  22. GI Joe

    I won't go back to Florida ever - partly because of all the ignorance I've heard from some of them lately, and mostly because of their murder laws allowing people to walk.

    Not one more vacation there ever.

    August 24, 2012 08:52 pm at 8:52 pm |
  23. T'sah From Virginia

    ►*52 percent of likely voters view President Obama favorably; 47 percent have an unfavorable view.◄
    ►*50 percent view Governor Romney favorably; 46 percent unfavorably.◄
    ?
    Looks like fuzzy math to me!!

    Obama 2012 – The Only Trusted Way Forward!

    August 24, 2012 09:20 pm at 9:20 pm |
  24. Marie MD

    Just finished watching rock center/brian williams piece on the mormon church and I got through it without throwing up.
    All these people need is to move to South America and for somebody to pass around the Kool Aid. If they are not a cult they could have fooled me. Huntsman daughter, who was called in by a bishop (not the flip flopper I take it) was told that she couldn't date or marry outside her religion or she would be excommunicated. She chose her life over the cultand she said they think it's their time. So did hitler and the nazis!
    They do wear thin undergarments (magic underwear) to keep them safe against fire. They "baptized" Jewish victims of the holocaust. They have food warehouse that it's just for them. If you are an "outsider" in need a bishop has to give permission for you not to starve. They are very klanish. Women are not allowed to take sacrament and women are not allowed leadership positions. The flip flopper's wife's parents couldn't attend their wedding because they were not mormons and not allowed in their temple.
    They might give you a hand out but it comes down to if you are not one of them don't come knocking on their door!

    August 24, 2012 09:34 pm at 9:34 pm |
  25. ColoradoJoe

    Question on the voucher: does this mean you no longer have to look for a doctor that will except medicare? They can charge what they want? Cost increase here we come. This is not going to lower health costs. The voucher is to help pay for private health insurance. As we all know the premiums for reasonable insurance is high. Also insurances WILL NOT cover pre-existing conditions... therefore the vouchers are useless... especially for the elderly that usually have pre-existing conditions.

    August 24, 2012 09:58 pm at 9:58 pm |
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