Washington (CNN) - Tied in the horserace.
Tied among voters who call themselves independents.
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And tied in the suburbs, where close presidential elections get decided.
Seventy-four days to go and our new CNN/ORC poll shows a presidential race that is as close as can be.
*Among likely voters, 49 percent say they plan to vote for the Obama-Biden ticket; 47 percent choose Romney-Ryan.
*87 percent of likely voters say their minds are made up; 11 percent say they could change.
*52 percent of likely voters view President Obama favorably; 47 percent have an unfavorable view.
*50 percent view Governor Romney favorably; 46 percent unfavorably.
So does that 49 percent to 47 percent national horserace tell us anything about how this race will end?
History suggests: NO.
After all, the Obama-McCain race was tied four years ago just before the nominating conventions kicked off. It was not a close race in the end.
In 1992, President George H. W. Bush held a small lead over Ross Perot and Bill Clinton as the conventions got under way. Yes, Clinton was running third then, but he ultimately won that topsy-turvy race.
And in 1988, Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis was running ahead (+8) of then Vice President Bush heading into convention season. Dukakis ended up losing 40 states.
That horserace history is why heading into the GOP convention, team Romney is far more interested in improving their candidate's "image" rankings – meaning how he fares when people are asked if he is likeable, or if he shares their values.