August 24th, 2012
05:04 PM ET
2 years ago

John King's CNN/ORC Poll Cheat Sheet

Washington (CNN) - Tied in the horserace.

Tied among voters who call themselves independents.

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– Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

And tied in the suburbs, where close presidential elections get decided.

Seventy-four days to go and our new CNN/ORC poll shows a presidential race that is as close as can be.

Some highlights:

*Among likely voters, 49 percent say they plan to vote for the Obama-Biden ticket; 47 percent choose Romney-Ryan.

*87 percent of likely voters say their minds are made up; 11 percent say they could change.

*52 percent of likely voters view President Obama favorably; 47 percent have an unfavorable view.

*50 percent view Governor Romney favorably; 46 percent unfavorably.

So does that 49 percent to 47 percent national horserace tell us anything about how this race will end?

History suggests: NO.

After all, the Obama-McCain race was tied four years ago just before the nominating conventions kicked off. It was not a close race in the end.

In 1992, President George H. W. Bush held a small lead over Ross Perot and Bill Clinton as the conventions got under way. Yes, Clinton was running third then, but he ultimately won that topsy-turvy race.

And in 1988, Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis was running ahead (+8) of then Vice President Bush heading into convention season. Dukakis ended up losing 40 states.

That horserace history is why heading into the GOP convention, team Romney is far more interested in improving their candidate's "image" rankings – meaning how he fares when people are asked if he is likeable, or if he shares their values.

soundoff (28 Responses)
  1. Name Tiesha...for the RECORD

    I support ROMNEY at least he not looking to keep me in CHAINS in da hood with 2-bit welfare handout.

    August 24, 2012 10:41 pm at 10:41 pm |
  2. difoderit

    AP Exclusive: Romney uses secretive data-mining

    Building upon its fundraising prowess, Mitt Romney's campaign began a secretive data-mining project this summer to trove through Americans' personal information – including their purchasing history and church attendance – to identify new and likely wealthy donors, The Associated Press has learned.

    For Romney's data-mining project, which began as early as June, the Republican candidate quietly turned to a little-known but successful analytics firm that previously performed marketing work for a colleague tied to Bain & Co., the management-consulting firm that Romney once led

    The effort by Romney appears to be the first example of a political campaign using such extensive data analysis.

    August 25, 2012 02:24 am at 2:24 am |
  3. Scott

    Sniffit
    Where's the polls showing how many people are likely to be disenfranchised by GOP/Teatrolls voter suppression legislation? I mean, everyone knows that the GOPers/Teatrolls read the polls as follows: "Obama has a 2% lead? Cool...cuz we probably killed 5% of his votes."
    ____________________________________________
    Nice try Sniffit, however reports have showing Democratic supporters, trying to register, dogs, dead people, illegals. We Tea partiers are merely making sure the voting is on a level playing field. Unlike you raidcal Liberals that will do anything dishonest to win an election.

    August 25, 2012 08:13 am at 8:13 am |
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