CNN/Time Polls: Close contests in Florida and North Carolina
August 27th, 2012
02:00 PM ET
2 years ago

CNN/Time Polls: Close contests in Florida and North Carolina

Tampa, Florida (CNN) – As the Republican convention gets underway, a new survey indicates the battle for this crucial battleground state's 29 electoral votes is extremely close.

And, according to a CNN/Time Magazine/ORC poll in North Carolina, the swing state where the Democratic convention kicks off next week, the race for the White House is a dead heat.

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Both polls were released Monday.

The Florida survey indicates that 50% of likely Sunshine State voters are backing President Barack Obama, with 46% supporting Republican challenger Mitt Romney. The president's four point advantage is within the survey's sampling error. According to the poll, independent voters in Florida are divided.

"President Obama has a huge lead in the Democratic strongholds near Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and Palm Beach. Mitt Romney has almost as big a lead in the northern part of the state. The two men are currently battling to a draw in the I-4 corridor where most Florida elections are won or lost," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

Eighty-five percent of likely voters said their minds were made up, with 13% saying they could still change their minds.

Then-Senator Obama won Florida by three points over Sen. John McCain in the 2008 presidential election.

In North Carolina, the CNN/Time Magazine/ORC poll indicates a dead heat, with 48% of likely voters supporting Romney and 47% backing Obama. Among independent voters, Romney has a 13 point lead.

"In North Carolina, it's an east-west split, rather than the north-south division we see in Florida," Holland notes. "Obama's strength east of I-95 and in the Research Triangle area roughly matches the advantage Romney has in the central and western parts of the state."
Just over eight in ten likely voters said their minds were made up, with 16% saying they could still change their minds.

Obama narrowly won North Carolina four years ago, the first Democrat to carry the state in a presidential election since 1976. Fifteen electoral votes are up for grabs in the state.

Age also plays a factor in both states, particularly in Florida. But there is no indication that the debate over Medicare in the wake of Romney's selection of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan as his running mate has moved the needle among senior citizens. Obama won 45% of the vote among Florida voters over the age of 65 in 2008 and is getting 45% among that group now. His share of the senior vote in North Carolina is also virtually the same as it was four years ago.

The CNN/Time poll was conducted by ORC International, with 1,020 Florida adults, including 895 registered voters and 776 likely voters, questioned by telephone. In North Carolina, 1,019 adults, including 905 registered voters and 766 likely voters, questioned by phone. The sampling error in both surveys for likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

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soundoff (71 Responses)
  1. Rudy NYC

    What is so galling to the hard right wing is that despite a less than best economic and unemployment figures, Pres. Obama is still holding a small edge over Mitt Romney, AND they cannot understand why this is so. The right wing, is classic right wing fashion, still thinks that it has a messaging problem. They believe that when people disagree with their message, then that means that people are simply *not* listening to the right wing message message. It never seems to occur to conservatives that people just simply disagree with the right wing.

    August 27, 2012 02:07 pm at 2:07 pm |
  2. Terry

    Sorry, Obama already lost NC, this time around will not win

    August 27, 2012 02:15 pm at 2:15 pm |
  3. Rudy NYC

    from the article:

    .... "Obama's strength east of I-95 and in the Research Triangle area roughly matches the advantage Romney has in the central and western parts of the state."
    -----------------------
    Gee, it looks like the educated people and the military families along the coast favor Obama in North Carolina.

    August 27, 2012 02:17 pm at 2:17 pm |
  4. Lenny Pincus

    NC. Split between the folks with a good education in the east and the mountain folks in the west.

    FLA. Spit between the cities of the south and the panhandlers of the north.

    Anyone see a trend??

    August 27, 2012 02:18 pm at 2:18 pm |
  5. bencoates57

    These things will swing back and forth a couple times more before the election. Look for Romney to pull ahead after his convention bump and the question will be how big of a bump and will Obama's convention bump overtake it?

    August 27, 2012 02:19 pm at 2:19 pm |
  6. Al-NY,NY

    Terry

    Sorry, Obama already lost NC, this time around will not win
    ---------------------------–

    if he takes Ohio and Florida, he won't need NC. Obama is much less dependant on these swing states than the less-than-dynamic-duo

    August 27, 2012 02:22 pm at 2:22 pm |
  7. Guest

    I live in NC and I can tell you RomneyRyan landslide. Fool me once, but not again.

    August 27, 2012 02:23 pm at 2:23 pm |
  8. Bubba from Tennessee

    Obama is not only a legitimate President, but he is well on his way to becoming a legitimate Two Term President.

    August 27, 2012 02:24 pm at 2:24 pm |
  9. Anonymous

    Not true

    August 27, 2012 02:25 pm at 2:25 pm |
  10. truth hurts

    Pretty unheard of that an incumbent President polls at a statistical tie with a challenger after spending $100 million on negative advertising! Obama has fired everything he has and still hasn't sealed the deal. Once Romney Ryan put their money to work on ads, Obama will start falling like the hollow tree he is.

    August 27, 2012 02:25 pm at 2:25 pm |
  11. DRAKE MALLARD

    Our country needs a Statesman! Not a Corporate Executive opportunist
    turned liberal politician turned moderate turned conservative turned pro
    life.Mitt Romney’s not running a cautious campaign; he’s running from tough questions. Running from his record of flip-flops and avoiding controversial stands doesn't amount to presidential leadership.Mitt Romney loves to throw people off his path. Now he believes in this, now he doesn't. The world may never know.He will have to check with his corporate sponsors for the appropriate response, then cross check with polling of his base, and then confirm the best way to word the answer with his team of corporate marketing experts.In many circles he is a good business man, in others he is a man who broke other men down by closing their companies, these men lost their insurance, lost their pensions and lost their income, to top it off the govt. had to step in with millions to save their retirement income they worked for so many years to save. He's a flat out liar, never have I heard or seen so many flip-flops

    August 27, 2012 02:26 pm at 2:26 pm |
  12. Chris

    Not true about NC. President Obama wins NC again this time around

    August 27, 2012 02:27 pm at 2:27 pm |
  13. Aaron

    yeah i live in n.c, and the smarter people do live in the east near the college cities, unc chapel hill, nc state, duke. i live in western nc though, and we have a lot of ignorant people here. but i will be voting democratic =)

    August 27, 2012 02:31 pm at 2:31 pm |
  14. Guest

    Obama hasn't been worth a flip on jobs. The only people who will support him are the freeloaders. Too bad, Obama could have saved the econoomy. instead, he sold out to the unions.

    August 27, 2012 02:31 pm at 2:31 pm |
  15. RealityBites

    So the CNN/Time Magazine/ORC poll is now finally showing viewers here that Romney is closing in on Obama.
    Of course the rest of us knew this last month from the more scientific and less polling group tested Rasmussen poll.

    August 27, 2012 02:31 pm at 2:31 pm |
  16. Trickle down doesn't work

    The Republicans aren't offering anything new, just the same old failed policies of Bush & Cheney.

    August 27, 2012 02:32 pm at 2:32 pm |
  17. NC

    Romney will probably win the rural less populated areas in NC as Senator McCain did in 2008. President Obama will win the larger cities and suburbs as he did in 2008. We had people wait for hours in Charlotte this past Saturday-Sunday for a DNC Credential for the President and Vice President acceptance speeches next week. The people waiting were from all age groups, races, incomes and professions. So many people arrived that they ran out of credentials and are on a waiting list. Last week 6000 volunteers in Charlotte received their Credentials first. If some of you doubters don't believe me check The Charlotte Observer or any Charlotte tv station.

    August 27, 2012 02:33 pm at 2:33 pm |
  18. Kimberly

    Its cute that republicans think Obama is going to lose... Even with the voter supression laws, we will beat romney. How any self respecting woman, or man for that matter could vote for romney is beyond me! BUT if you look at the areas in NC and Florida that romney is winning, its the uneducated areas. Obama is leading in cities, educated areas and the military areas...Romney is a JOKE!

    August 27, 2012 02:34 pm at 2:34 pm |
  19. GOP Word Association

    WORD = GOP Association
    Old People = Glob of cells that we don't care about. Let them die.
    Sick People = Glob of cells that we don't care about. Let them die.
    Poor People = Glob of cells that we don't care about. Let them die.
    Female People = Glob of cells that we don't care about. Let them die.
    Non-white People = Glob of cells that we don't care about. Let them die.
    Non-christian People = Glob of cells that we don't care about. Let them die.
    Unemployed People = Glob of cells that we don't care about. Let them die.
    Gay People = Glob of cells that we don't care about. Let them die.
    Glob of cells in a womb = Something we PRETEND to care about just to get votes.

    August 27, 2012 02:34 pm at 2:34 pm |
  20. rrd

    Rudy NYC

    What is so galling to the hard right wing is that despite a less than best economic and unemployment figures, Pres. Obama is still holding a small edge over Mitt Romney, AND they cannot understand why this is so. The right wing, is classic right wing fashion, still thinks that it has a messaging problem. They believe that when people disagree with their message, then that means that people are simply *not* listening to the right wing message message. It never seems to occur to conservatives that people just simply disagree with the right wing.
    ----------------------------------------

    What i find amazing is Carter held about a 9 point lead over Regan about this time. Also "despite a less than best economic and unemployment figures".

    August 27, 2012 02:34 pm at 2:34 pm |
  21. Kimberly

    OH WOW!!! Reality Bites called rasmussen scientific. Yes, they had mccain/palin winning last time!

    August 27, 2012 02:35 pm at 2:35 pm |
  22. Dee

    Aaron you said it best I live in NC and no one asked me who I was voting for there are a lot of young college students and they love President Obama.

    August 27, 2012 02:38 pm at 2:38 pm |
  23. Willard Romney

    A recent FCF [Fundamentalist Christian Poll] released this afternoon shows that out of all people who suggest that they will vote, hope to vote or are praying to vote are supporting Willard 99% and Obama by 1%.

    Now lets put all the $$$ going into this divisive farce, including polls, back into the economy and create some JOBS!

    August 27, 2012 02:39 pm at 2:39 pm |
  24. rrd

    Kimberly

    OH WOW!!! Reality Bites called rasmussen scientific. Yes, they had mccain/palin winning last time!
    --------------------------------------------–

    And they have Obama +3 on 8/26. Imagine that.

    August 27, 2012 02:41 pm at 2:41 pm |
  25. Rudy NYC

    truth hurts

    Pretty unheard of that an incumbent President polls at a statistical tie with a challenger after spending $100 million on negative advertising! Obama has fired everything he has and still hasn't sealed the deal. Once Romney Ryan put their money to work on ads, Obama will start falling like the hollow tree he is.
    -------------------------
    I will mostly agree with the first part of that. It speaks volumes about just how weak a candidate Mitt Romney actually is. Pres. Obama should be down by double digits if you look at strictly economic numbers. But, that is also all that Romeny knows how to do. There is more to being POTUS than the balance sheet, you know. The balance is mostly controlled by the Congress, anyway. Being a businessman is not neccessarily mean you would make a good POTUS. The record shows it has been the people who came from business backgrounds who have been among the worst US presidents ever.

    August 27, 2012 02:41 pm at 2:41 pm |
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