CNN/Time Polls: Close contests in Florida and North Carolina
August 27th, 2012
02:00 PM ET
2 years ago

CNN/Time Polls: Close contests in Florida and North Carolina

Tampa, Florida (CNN) – As the Republican convention gets underway, a new survey indicates the battle for this crucial battleground state's 29 electoral votes is extremely close.

And, according to a CNN/Time Magazine/ORC poll in North Carolina, the swing state where the Democratic convention kicks off next week, the race for the White House is a dead heat.

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Both polls were released Monday.

The Florida survey indicates that 50% of likely Sunshine State voters are backing President Barack Obama, with 46% supporting Republican challenger Mitt Romney. The president's four point advantage is within the survey's sampling error. According to the poll, independent voters in Florida are divided.

"President Obama has a huge lead in the Democratic strongholds near Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and Palm Beach. Mitt Romney has almost as big a lead in the northern part of the state. The two men are currently battling to a draw in the I-4 corridor where most Florida elections are won or lost," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

Eighty-five percent of likely voters said their minds were made up, with 13% saying they could still change their minds.

Then-Senator Obama won Florida by three points over Sen. John McCain in the 2008 presidential election.

In North Carolina, the CNN/Time Magazine/ORC poll indicates a dead heat, with 48% of likely voters supporting Romney and 47% backing Obama. Among independent voters, Romney has a 13 point lead.

"In North Carolina, it's an east-west split, rather than the north-south division we see in Florida," Holland notes. "Obama's strength east of I-95 and in the Research Triangle area roughly matches the advantage Romney has in the central and western parts of the state."
Just over eight in ten likely voters said their minds were made up, with 16% saying they could still change their minds.

Obama narrowly won North Carolina four years ago, the first Democrat to carry the state in a presidential election since 1976. Fifteen electoral votes are up for grabs in the state.

Age also plays a factor in both states, particularly in Florida. But there is no indication that the debate over Medicare in the wake of Romney's selection of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan as his running mate has moved the needle among senior citizens. Obama won 45% of the vote among Florida voters over the age of 65 in 2008 and is getting 45% among that group now. His share of the senior vote in North Carolina is also virtually the same as it was four years ago.

The CNN/Time poll was conducted by ORC International, with 1,020 Florida adults, including 895 registered voters and 776 likely voters, questioned by telephone. In North Carolina, 1,019 adults, including 905 registered voters and 766 likely voters, questioned by phone. The sampling error in both surveys for likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

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soundoff (71 Responses)
  1. gt

    how is your home value..opps..sucks..ok vote obama out...

    August 27, 2012 02:41 pm at 2:41 pm |
  2. indenpendent FL

    Romney is very out of touch, and seniors know how bad Ryan plans is, those hillbillies from the panhandle don't consider themselves as floridians, but as georgians or alabamians, and they milk on the taxes that comes from the south.

    August 27, 2012 02:42 pm at 2:42 pm |
  3. Dumbpolitics

    Whatever the Koch bros want and pay for that's the way for the GOP. Let's see if they can buy all of us voters.

    August 27, 2012 02:42 pm at 2:42 pm |
  4. Trickle down doesn't work

    Romney is a total dud as a leader. He's not decisive(unless it's about not releasing his tax returns) and doesn't instill confidence. I can picture him on the car lot selling used BMW's

    August 27, 2012 02:42 pm at 2:42 pm |
  5. trex

    .......Just wait till the debates.............OBAMA IS GOING TO CRUSH Romney..................

    August 27, 2012 02:43 pm at 2:43 pm |
  6. bluedogboy

    Obama won't with NC this time around. The Democrats have taken a beating there due in large part to the governor.

    Florida will slide to Obama.

    August 27, 2012 02:43 pm at 2:43 pm |
  7. freelance

    – Obama's strength east of I-95 and in the Research Triangle area roughly matches the advantage Romney has in the lesser educated western parts of the state. - – So What does that tell you?

    August 27, 2012 02:46 pm at 2:46 pm |
  8. NFL

    How can anyone expect Obama to clean up an 8 year mess + 2 unfunded wars + Medicare Part D in 3 years?? Oh, and with a Congress who only knows how to say NO. He's tried hard to compromise but the Republicans only want to oust Obama, not truly work to help America!

    August 27, 2012 02:49 pm at 2:49 pm |
  9. judith

    Romney can't win without Florida. North Carolina won't matter. I think it's too close to call in Ohio, but Obama will likely win there as well. But to restate my original point, without Florida, Romney will lose.

    August 27, 2012 02:49 pm at 2:49 pm |
  10. Rick Lawson

    Ok I can understand rich white guys voting for Romney but if you are a woman or a minority and you vote Republican then you are really voting for the people who want to oppress you! I don't get it???

    August 27, 2012 02:50 pm at 2:50 pm |
  11. Joel

    People forget history. No president ever has won re-election without gaining MORE VOTES in his second run than he got the first time. EVER. Also in everr race where there is a challenger vs an incumbent, people who claim to be independent up until election day vote overwhelmingly for the challenger.

    These poll results are being manipulated to make you think Obama is ahead, when in reality, he is behind.

    August 27, 2012 02:51 pm at 2:51 pm |
  12. Jerry

    Folks the truth is the president is in real trouble for the election. If the American people were pretty satisfied, the president would be 10 points ahead. Its a dead heat before the debates and conventions. Like it or not Romney is holding his own.

    August 27, 2012 02:52 pm at 2:52 pm |
  13. Claudia, Houston, Tx

    The Romneys "protect" their money in Swiss, Cayman Island and Bermuda accounts and taxpayers pay for the Secret Service to "protect" them. How stupid can Americans be. Shameful.

    August 27, 2012 02:53 pm at 2:53 pm |
  14. IndeePendant

    Jeb Bush says that Obama had 3 years to show his mettle and shouldn't talk about George Bush any more. He is conveniently forgetting that his brother brought the country down in his 8 years of rule and left the country losing 800000 jobs per month to Obama, while Obama came in and turned around the economy by brining it to produce at least 150000 jobs per month within just 3 years. So, George Bush should still be blamed for taking a well-running country in 2000 from Clinton and muddling up our country and leaving it bleeding to Obama.

    August 27, 2012 02:53 pm at 2:53 pm |
  15. george of the jungle

    amazing that people are still trying to use unions to s are people into voteing for the repos. Dispite the moving districts around and trying to surpress voter rights the president is the better choice and the majority of people see that. democrates are just better informed no matter where we live. WE may not be rich but as aparty we are smarter and better organized . WE have plenty to loose if the repos get in . Our health care and social security or voteing rights our reproductive rights Our education rights. Any chance of developing alternitive energy. The planet will warm faster and out air will get worse and worse. Now thats a real legacy for our kids. Vote all repos out.

    August 27, 2012 02:54 pm at 2:54 pm |
  16. Proud Former AZ Republican

    @ Guest

    I find your comment insulting. Freeloaders? Really? I work hard for what I have. I receive nothing from the government. I happen to live in a part of AZ that is very Republican, and guess what? There are a lot of lazy ones here who live OFF of the government. They have for years. Long before President Obama had even been heard of. I'm voting for President Obama.

    August 27, 2012 02:57 pm at 2:57 pm |
  17. Pete

    Yah,if the public only knew of Romney and his secret Mormon agenda,he is the chosen one Ann exclaims..He'll be so secretive he'll drive people crazy.What about Romney excommunicating a pregnant woman from their church then explaining that after the child is born the man of the house and his new mate will raise the infant because Romney as bishop said so..Or how John Huntsmans daughter was dating and a bishop from her church told her to quit being involved if he's not Mormon,it might end up she being excommunicated but she eventually married the gentleman anyway and she voluntarily quit the church before her churches bishop excommunicated them both.Can republicans say with any honesty, intelligence if they know anything of Mormons if Romney could hold his hand on the bible and swear to uphold the office of presidency when he only believes in the words and followings of their secret Mormon agendas of John Smith,the creator.Can you honestly vote for a man who hasn't been transparent,his wife Ann proclaims they deserve the executive position and tell me sincerely if he could send your kids to war when he himself is a draftdodger hiding in France as a missionary trying to teach Mormonism to French Catholics because his religion protects them from enlisting in any military service,peaceful or not,is that patriotism,not in my book...You tell me if "YOU" as republicans,independents,democrates know anything at all about Romney,his background ,his secret religious agendas.They don't believe in blacks,gays,lesbians,they don't respect minorities and they most certainly don't respect women,people of lower economic classes,meaning us,so think well voters you've got extremist republican governors in states you know and look how its going,not well,do ya want the whole country run that way as well,empty promises are all you'll get from Romney,ask the citizens of Massachusetts,they're still suffering for his debacles,just ask some of them was he worth it,I dare ya!!

    August 27, 2012 02:59 pm at 2:59 pm |
  18. rrd

    Even Carter had a bigger lead over Regan at this point.

    August 27, 2012 03:00 pm at 3:00 pm |
  19. Joanne Williams

    Give me a break; look at how many people they polled? I live in North Carolina, and yeah, I am one of the smart ones that say President Obama will win North Carolina and a second term if it’s up to me and the rest of the intelligent people here in North Carolina. The people that back Romney would vote for a cow if he or she was running and that's sad because Romney is not a smart person and cannot communicate on the level that a president should be able to, he would be an embarrassment to send to another country to speak to other leaders, Romney IQ and communication level might be worse than George Bush.

    August 27, 2012 03:00 pm at 3:00 pm |
  20. AL in West Palm Beach, FL

    So if you're educated, can think for yourself and working....

    OBAMA IS YOUR MAN

    I didn't say it, this did –>

    "Obama's strength east of I-95 and in the Research Triangle area roughly matches the advantage Romney has in the central and western parts of the state."

    August 27, 2012 03:00 pm at 3:00 pm |
  21. SB

    This poll is disingenuous. It reads

    "The Florida survey indicates that 50% of likely Sunshine State voters are backing President Barack Obama, with 46% supporting Republican challenger Mitt Romney. The president's four point advantage is within the survey's sampling error. According to the poll, independent voters in Florida are divided."

    ..OF LIKELY VOTERS

    However when you read the bottom it then says:

    "The CNN/Time poll was conducted by ORC International, with 1,020 Florida adults, including 895 registered voters and 776 likely voters, questioned by telephone. In North Carolina, 1,019 adults, including 905 registered voters and 766 likely voters, questioned by phone. The sampling error in both surveys for likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."

    So the poll is not of "likely voters" in fact they only make up a percentage of those polled! This is how the liberal media attempts to keep Obama's head above water. In reality, Mitt Romney polls much better among "likely voters" to combat this, CNN presents a poll of "likely voters" that shows Romney losing, when in fact the poll is not actually as advertised. Until we see solid polls of ONLY likely voters, we are wasting our time considering anything else.

    August 27, 2012 03:03 pm at 3:03 pm |
  22. NC

    I have lived here my entire 60+ years. I hate to say it but those of you who think President Obama will win the areas of the state where people are educated are correct. You can travel 30 miles from any of our areas where people are educated and it is like traveling back in time. My family and I left a rural area almost 40 years ago for a better life. When we return to visit relatives not much has changed.

    August 27, 2012 03:03 pm at 3:03 pm |
  23. Justin

    If blacks would vote based on issues instead of voting for Obama just because hes black, would be a different story.

    August 27, 2012 03:04 pm at 3:04 pm |
  24. Freespirit

    Bluedogboy- that is exactly the way I think it will go too. I am surprised he won NC in 2008. As long as he wins Florida and Ohio!

    August 27, 2012 03:06 pm at 3:06 pm |
  25. Rudy NYC

    rrd wrote:

    What i find amazing is Carter held about a 9 point lead over Regan about this time. Also "despite a less than best economic and unemployment figures".
    ----------------------–
    No, he did not. Carter dropped like a rock following the failed operation to rescue the hostages in Tehran, which occured on April 24, 1980. Carter was down by double digits in less than a month's time.

    "Nice try, but we gotcha."

    August 27, 2012 03:09 pm at 3:09 pm |
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