North Carolina moves in CNN Electoral Map
August 27th, 2012
06:28 PM ET
2 years ago

North Carolina moves in CNN Electoral Map

(CNN) – CNN Monday turned the important battleground state of North Carolina from "lean Romney" to true "toss up" on its Electoral Map, following the release of a new CNN/Time Magazine/ORC International poll that indicated the race for the state's 15 electoral votes was a dead heat.

The move by CNN comes one week before the Democratic convention kicks off in Charlotte, North Carolina.

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The poll, released earlier on Monday, indicates it's all knotted up in the Tar Heel state, with 48% of likely voters supporting Republican challenger Mitt Romney and 47% backing President Barack Obama.

Other polls from other organizations conducted earlier this summer also indicated a close contest in North Carolina.

"It's hard to imagine the perfect storm that helped then Sen. Obama narrowly carry the state in 2008. But at the moment the polling shows a tossup, and both campaigns say their numbers are in the same ballpark as our survey," says CNN Chief National Correspondent John King. "That, plus all the attention Democrats are about to give the state, gives us ample reason to move North Carolina to tossup."

"It's a must win for Romney, and even top Obama aides privately say it is a lot harder to see it going blue this time. But Romney can't take it for granted and the poll backs up what we see in the recent ad wars in North Carolina: It's a tight battleground," adds King.

Obama was the first Democrat to carry the state in a presidential election since 1976.

North Carolina now becomes the ninth state CNN considers a true toss up, joining Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. CNN considers Michigan, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania as states that lean towards Obama, with Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri as states that lean towards Romney.

With North Carolina's move to true "toss up," the CNN Electoral Map now suggests Obama leading in states with a combined 237 electoral votes, Romney ahead in states with a combined 191 electoral votes, and states with 110 electoral votes are up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed with win the White House.

– CNN's Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.

soundoff (445 Responses)
  1. nolimits3333

    Romney is a draft dodging tax evader.

    August 27, 2012 08:02 pm at 8:02 pm |
  2. smallmouth6

    Easy win in 2012 for Obama.

    August 27, 2012 08:02 pm at 8:02 pm |
  3. Chris

    This country and it's economy cannot take another term from Obama, the TAX MAN!

    August 27, 2012 08:03 pm at 8:03 pm |
  4. Doc

    The only hope is Romney/Ryan. In case anyone hadn't noticed, how many socialistic societies are economic powers. How many countries have imploded during communism and socialism. Read "The Animal Farm". If you want to end up living where all pigs are equal but some are more equal, just vote democratic and you'll get your wish......and your nightmare too.

    August 27, 2012 08:03 pm at 8:03 pm |
  5. CedarRapids

    Hey Randy, maybe you missed the bit in the article that said

    'Although the model devised by Prof Berry and Prof Bickers has predicted the correct results of eight consecutive presidential elections, the data used for analysis was collected in June.
    An update with figures from September is due next month which the team said could have a completely different outcome'

    August 27, 2012 08:03 pm at 8:03 pm |
  6. Gurgyl

    Any one with Brain will vote for OBAMA. Not for Koch, nor for Adelson idiot.

    August 27, 2012 08:04 pm at 8:04 pm |
  7. The Lord of Excess

    Wow the media is trying so hard to paint this as such a close race ... every Presidential election the media sets new records for hot air and hype.

    August 27, 2012 08:04 pm at 8:04 pm |
  8. DEMSMUSTGO

    hit the post button. since we elected a republican gov. the state has had a good turn around. next is the worthless senator that always looks drunk. (red eyes and slurring). we had a democrat gov for 8 years, and run this state to the ground. more government and less jobs!! sounds like obamas message

    August 27, 2012 08:05 pm at 8:05 pm |
  9. AmericanWaxwing

    CANNOT WAIT for a jobs-friendly president who has experience fixing tough financial situations. Not ashamed to be voting for Romney & Ryan.

    August 27, 2012 08:05 pm at 8:05 pm |
  10. snoozie

    @ Randy, read your article. I think you need to read the whole thing.

    August 27, 2012 08:05 pm at 8:05 pm |
  11. David

    The first vote has yet to be cast and CNN is already predicting the outcome. Who are these people that are polled? I've never been polled and I don't know anyone that's been included in a poll. How many people don't vote because they think the outcome is already decided? Why do we even care who CNN thinks is winning? What does it have to do with anything?

    August 27, 2012 08:06 pm at 8:06 pm |
  12. Carol

    Yep, Randy, as I suspected it is a black thing. People still resent a black man in the "white" house. Obama is one black man that puts a lot of white men to shame. Thank you for calling me a liberal socialist, guess you would say the same thing about Jesus!

    August 27, 2012 08:06 pm at 8:06 pm |
  13. Jay

    Romney will "do a job on medicare" alright...by ending it...if he is given the chance...which he won't be. Obma will be re-elected.

    August 27, 2012 08:06 pm at 8:06 pm |
  14. Tr1Xen

    Romney will take North Carolina.

    August 27, 2012 08:07 pm at 8:07 pm |
  15. Joe citizen abroad

    Ever wonder why every election these days always seems "too close to call"? Here's the math. Close election = high ratings/readership/click-throughs for the media = more advertising revenue. No contest = no audience = no money. Take the hype with a large grain of salt. Vote your heart.

    August 27, 2012 08:07 pm at 8:07 pm |
  16. mochica

    Republicans can only criticize Obama, but when they hint at how they might improve the state of the nation, no one believes them. Go Obama!

    August 27, 2012 08:07 pm at 8:07 pm |
  17. Libkiller

    The libs are going bonkers!! LOL

    August 27, 2012 08:10 pm at 8:10 pm |
  18. cvf

    lotta red, lots...

    August 27, 2012 08:12 pm at 8:12 pm |
  19. Itaintover

    This is the most exciting presidential election in my 37 years of voting! So proud to be an independent ...!

    August 27, 2012 08:14 pm at 8:14 pm |
  20. Sara

    this is actually the first year I'm going to be voting at 26, I am in full support of Romney/Ryan.. Obama made promises all this time and hasn't followed through with any of the things he is supposed to, all of his speaches are full of promises again. If people actually looked at the defict we have gone more into debt with Obama leading this country. the sad part is you can't promise what you can do for this country at this point, but what you can do is make a plan that actually makes sense.

    August 27, 2012 08:15 pm at 8:15 pm |
  21. mainAH

    Well, there's plenty of states and electoral votes available.

    August 27, 2012 08:15 pm at 8:15 pm |
  22. Facepalm28

    Demsmustgo, if you think Michigan is voting Republican (for the guy who said "let Detroit go bankrupt", no less), you're on drugs.

    Wisconsin is not going to go red either; for all the Paul Ryan hype, Wisc. will be back in the blue column by October. Personally, I think the Republicans will ultimately hold on to NC, but they'll have to work for it. Meanwhile, Ohio and Florida (where Romney hasn't led in months) will go blue and deliver 4 more years. Probably Virginia will ultimately tip blue as well, and hopefully so, considering VA has a key senate race, even if it doesn't end up being key to the presidency.

    August 27, 2012 08:15 pm at 8:15 pm |
  23. HomeBoy

    How could anyone still support Obama in 2012? Oh, yeah, the hand out society loves him. Don't take my benefits away! I want more handouts, I'm a government employee that is a waste of tax dollars. Don't take my job away. I'm a multi generational welfare moocher. Don't take my food stamps away. Of course, if you did all that, I guess I would have to really get off my fast food butt and get a job and support myself. Oh no. The humanity!

    August 27, 2012 08:15 pm at 8:15 pm |
  24. C

    CN3, you are not going to win the election for Obama no matter how hard you try to skew numbers. The real working class is feed up and that includes democrates.

    August 27, 2012 08:16 pm at 8:16 pm |
  25. FORWARD

    Minute by minute coverage thanks to CNN and it's not even November yet! Wow, what a dedicated news organization!!

    August 27, 2012 08:16 pm at 8:16 pm |
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