CNN Poll: Did Romney get a convention bounce?
September 4th, 2012
04:00 PM ET
2 years ago

CNN Poll: Did Romney get a convention bounce?

Charlotte, North Carolina (CNN) - It's the question everyone's asking: Did Mitt Romney get a bounce out of last week's Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida?

According to a new national poll released Tuesday, just before the start of the Democratic convention, the GOP presidential nominee appears to have received a one-point convention bounce, normal for the modern political era.

Full results (pdf)

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A CNN/ORC International survey also indicates that less than four in ten registered voters said the Republican convention made them more likely to vote for Romney, but the former Massachusetts governor got a slight bump in his favorable rating, and on being in touch with the middle class and women, although he still trails President Barack Obama on those two questions.

CNN's previous poll, released as the Republican convention got underway, indicated 49% of likely voters backing Obama, with 47% supporting Romney, a virtual tie. In the new survey, which was conducted Friday through Monday, entirely after the GOP convention, both the president and Romney are at 48%.

"The Republican convention had at best a mild effect on the presidential race, and from a statistical viewpoint, no effect at all," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Demographically, Romney's overall one-point bounce masks some movement among subgroups and suggests that Romney's pitch to some groups may have worked but at the expense of turning off another group of voters."

According to the survey, Romney gained seven points among higher-income Americans, but he lost four points among lower-income voters, among whom Obama now has a 15-point lead. That income difference may explain why Romney gained ground among urban and suburban voters, but lost support among voters in rural areas.

The poll indicates Romney may have picked up support among men, but there was no change at all among women, keeping in place a double-digit gender gap. And there's an interesting movement among age groups. Romney gained a bit among younger voters and among senior citizens, but Obama was the big winner among voters between 50 and 64 years old.

"It's possible that senior citizens who are already on Medicare have accepted the GOP assurances that their benefits will not be affected, but the group of Americans who are approaching retirement - who will be the first ones affected by the GOP-proposed changes in the Medicare system - are getting worried about what's in store for them," added Holland.

Romney gained among independent voters, with a three point 48%-45% margin last week expanding to 52%-42% advantage now.

So how does Romney's one-point bounce measure up in the history books?

"It's pretty standard for all conventions conducted since 2000. Twice during that period, candidates got a two-point bounce; twice in that same time, candidates got no bounce at all. So Romney's one-point bounce is right in the middle of the range that political junkies have come to expect in the 21st century," said Holland.

"Way back in the 20th century, candidates routinely got bounces of five to seven points, and double-digit bounces were often measured. But those days may be past us now - the combination of late-summer conventions, a compressed convention schedule, the increasing reliance on mid-summer advertising blitzes and an increasingly polarized electorate seems to have joined forces to dampen the effect of political conventions."

The convention did affect how voters view Romney. He went from a 46%-49% deficit on being a strong and decisive leader to a 48%-43% advantage. On the question of having a vision for the country's future, he went from a three-point deficit to a four-point edge.

And the GOP nominee gained about four to five points on questions about being in touch with the middle class and women, but Romney still trails Obama when voters are asked which candidate is more in touch with those two key groups.

Romney slightly closed the gap on which candidate would do a better job handling foreign policy, and he maintained an advantage over Obama on the economy, although the convention barely moved the needle on that measure despite a laser-like focus on economic issues in Tampa.

One thing that may have blunted the Republican convention's message is the perception by a majority in the poll that the GOP spent too much time criticizing the Democrats, leading only 36% of registered voters to say that the convention made them more likely to vote for Romney - a historically low number. Forty-six percent said what they saw or heard from the convention made the less likely to vote for Romney, with 13% saying it made no difference to their vote.

Romney's favorable rating appears to be on the rise, from 50% last week to 53% now, and his favorables have effectively matched Obama's rating among likely voters. But the president still maintains an edge on favorability among registered voters.

Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan's favorable/unfavorable ratings among likely voters went from 45%-39% last week to 49%-38% now.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International August 31-September 3, with 1,005 adults nationwide, including 877 registered voters and 735 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points, with a sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for registered and likely voter questions.

soundoff (346 Responses)
  1. JohnnyInSNJ

    One point, huh? So how much is he down by now?

    September 4, 2012 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  2. FlotsamJetsam

    A 1 point bounce is not surprising considering Mitt got upstaged by an empty chair.

    Mitt's speech was devoid of any mention about policies about taxes, or plans for the economy. and certainly no mention of the troops back from the war or still over in Afghanistan. Absolutely NO content.

    September 4, 2012 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  3. Kevin

    That's NOT breaking news. That's called adjustable error.

    September 4, 2012 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  4. John

    Well that just about seals it. 1,005 adults polled. That means 0.000001% of the population thinks Romney is a good choice. What if they only happened to call rich people that are in line for the tax breaks.

    September 4, 2012 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  5. Billy, NYC

    Since RNC last week, Clint Eastwood has a double digits favorable rating over Romney. Hey, Romney, go get an empty chair and play improvisation in the campaign trails. That's the new trend.

    September 4, 2012 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  6. Dion

    "normal" for the modern era?????????????????

    MCAIN GOT AN 11 PT BOUNCE.......ROMNEY IS IN TROUBLE AND THE MEDIA DOESN'T WANT TO ADMIT IT.

    September 4, 2012 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  7. caliz

    “In fact, every time I see Mitt Romney, I think about that little rover Curiosity on Mars". Talk about being robotic.

    September 4, 2012 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  8. Hitman

    No more years! No more years!!

    September 4, 2012 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  9. ron

    please cnn, the media just wants us to watch for the ratings. Landslide come November. Obama wins by over 100 electorial votes easily. Romney/Ryan never stood a chance. too bad they dont poll beyond the 10% base of the repubican voters!

    September 4, 2012 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  10. TheZel

    WOW, 1 point, game over. wouldn't call it a bump, more like a zit.

    September 4, 2012 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  11. Lenny Pincus

    There probably is no thing called a convention bounce anymore.

    September 4, 2012 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  12. bee

    HAHAHAHAHA. Can not wait to see the smack down during the debates. Obama/Biden2012

    September 4, 2012 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  13. bhartman36

    One point may not seem like a lot. (In fact, I'm sure it's *not* a lot), but with the polls as tight as they are, one point might make a difference.

    I suspect the 1-point bounce will be erased after the Democratic convention, though.

    September 4, 2012 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  14. lynnmarie2u

    Breaking News? For a minute I thought something earth shattering had happened.

    September 4, 2012 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  15. John

    Plus or minus 3.5%. So I assume that means Obama could have a 7 point lead.

    September 4, 2012 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  16. Go USA

    It is official! Obama spends and the debt hits $16 TRILLION ... as the convention begins...perfect timing you morons!! Bye bye in Nov!

    September 4, 2012 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  17. bkp1761

    NO! "You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time." – PT Barnum

    September 4, 2012 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  18. lynnmarie2u

    Breaking News? LOL-About as interesting as a Lohan story

    September 4, 2012 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  19. Woman In California

    If by using the word "bounce" you mean bounced off the minds of American voters by a 80+ year old man talking to a chair, then its true he was bounced.

    September 4, 2012 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  20. C

    The national debt just hit 16 Trillion today, that will help too. Obama was laughing about it on cn3, and he said that the economy is recovering nicely while handing out free beer made in the White House.

    September 4, 2012 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  21. suzibee

    Lets get pumped up everyone!!!!!!!
    The time is now!!!!!!
    We need all that 2008 energy to re-elect this wonderful President!!!!!
    Let's get rolling!!!!
    OBAMA 2012!!!!!

    September 4, 2012 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  22. rositaCA

    1 POINT = 1%
    that means they have to dig for more lies to come up with!!

    September 4, 2012 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  23. jinx88

    I still want to know how Mittens plans to create 12 million jobs in his first 4 years using the same BS Bush used or did that tank the economy.

    September 4, 2012 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  24. carly

    typical post convention bounce is 7 points. After the Dem convention the clown team of pandering and lying Romney/Ryan will probably be down 10 points.

    September 4, 2012 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  25. ohreally

    And I have seen another poll, which showed Romney losing a point. The bottom line, The GOP spent a lot of money to gain nothing.

    September 4, 2012 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
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