CNN's GUT CHECK | for September 10, 2012 | 5 p.m.
– n. a pause to assess the state, progress or condition of the political news cycle
BREAKING: OBAMA GETS CONVENTION BOUNCE... A new CNN/ORC Poll shows that Barack Obama received a four-point "bounce" following the Democratic National Convention, and he now holds a six-point advantage over Mitt Romney among likely voters.
DEVELOPING: HEADACHE LOOMS FOR WHOEVER WINS… A recession is imminent if Congress and the Obama administration don't find a way to avoid impending drastic spending cuts and tax increases, a business group's top economist said Monday. … "If we don't figure out a way to finesse this fiscal cliff . . . if we don't figure out how to kick this can down the road, we will almost certainly be in a recession," said [U.S. Chamber of Commerce's Martin] Regalia in a briefing with reporters. – Jennifer Liberto
What presidential couple, whose first dance was to “I Married An Angel,” was married on this week in history?
Going second has its advantages.
Look no further than the new CNN/ORC Poll (INSERT LINK TO PDF) released this afternoon that shows President Barack Obama not only received a “bounce” out of the Democratic National Convention, but he is also in a much stronger position than he was one week ago.
First, let’s look at the bounce. Heading into the Democratic convention, Obama and Mitt Romney were all tied up at 48%. The new CNN/ORC survey, conducted Friday through Sunday, shows that Obama received a 4 point bounce and the president now holds a 52% to 46% lead over Romney. (Before you start asking questions, a bounce is calculated by taking the amount of support a candidate has before the convention and comparing it to the amount of support a candidate has following the convention. Thus, Obama received a 4 point bounce from the convention, but has a 6 point lead because Romney lost 2 points during that same time period. And to make matters more confusing – the race is still up for grabs given that even Obama’s 6 point lead is within the +/-3.5 sampling error on either side).
So, Obama received a 4 point bounce, the biggest since the 2000 presidential election when then-Vice President Al Gore and his rival then-Texas Gov. George Bush each received 8 point bumps out of their respective conventions. In contrast, Romney only received a 1 point bounce out of the Republican National Convention two weeks ago.
It is not just Obama’s 4 point bounce that caught our eye. The CNN/ORC poll shows that the president made a 5 point gain among men, an 11 point gain among voters under the age of 50 and his favorable rating also climbed by 6 points in the days following the Democratic convention.
But it was the response to the question of who “Has an optimistic vision for the country’s future” Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Now Last week
Obama 51% 43%
Romney 41% 47%
Optimism among voters is key for Obama even as he faces less than stellar news about the economy such as Friday’s jobs report.
Going second has its advantages, but it is not the only reason why we think Obama gained a little ground on Romney. Taking a step back and comparing the two conventions, it seemed to us that the Democratic delegates were more energized and the convention programming across the three nights was more effective. While Republicans successfully pointed out the president’s shortcomings in office at the GOP convention, Obama’s surrogates were more effective in defending him at the Democratic convention.
But does a convention bounce last? Ask Al Gore. The election is 57 days away and lots can happen in that time.
“On some measures in the poll, it looks like the Democratic convention made a lot of voters forget about the things they liked in the Republican convention,” CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. “The challenge for the Democrats will be figuring out what to do when the voters forget about the Democratic convention as well.”
Did you miss it?
Leading CNNPolitics: Congress has little motivation for compromise before election
After a five-week summer recess, Congress returns to a long list of unfinished business, but with 57 left days before Election Day, it's likely it will tackle only the bare minimum in its short fall session. – Deirdre Walsh
Leading Drudge: Chicago Teachers Walk Out
Mayor Rahm Emanuel sought to frame up the teachers strike today as one that could have been avoided. As he did last night after the Chicago Teachers Union announced the walkout, Emanuel characterized the move as "a strike of choice. And it's the wrong choice for our children." – Tribune reporters in the Chicago Tribune
Leading HuffPo: Romney On Obama Recovery: He Gets No Credit For Stopping Recession From Going Further
In an interview with a local Virginia television station on Sunday, Mitt Romney went further than normal in criticizing the president's handling of the economy, saying that he doesn't deserve credit for stemming the bleeding he inherited from his predecessor. "There has never been a recession that went on forever. There has never been a depression that went on forever," Romney told WVEC News. – Sam Stein
Leading Politico: 9 states where the race will be won
From New Hampshire in the Northeast to Nevada in the Rocky Mountain West, there is little disagreement between the two campaigns about the places where the election will be won and lost. Aside from those two swing states, there are seven others: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. – Charles Mahtesian
Leading The New York Times: A Tight Election May Be Tangled in Legal Battles
The November presidential election, widely expected to rest on a final blitz of advertising and furious campaigning, may also hinge nearly as much on last-minute legal battles over when and how ballots should be cast and counted, particularly if the race remains tight in battleground states. – Ethan Bronner
The political bites of the day
– Team Romney calls surveys showing Obama bounce a 'sugar high' –
NEIL NEWHOUSE, ROMNEY CAMPAIGN POLLSTER, IN A CAMPAIGN MEMO: “Don't get too worked up about the latest polling. While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly. The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama Presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race.”
– Carney: You can’t always get what you want –
PRESS SECRETARY JAY CARNEY AT THE WHITE HOUSE BRIEFING: “When we have the Republicans in control, largely in control in Congress, and definitively in control in the House of Representatives, and Democrats here at the White House and in the Senate … you can’t get everything you want. You cannot stand on your maximalist position and just hold your breath. And what we experienced and what we continue to experience is the adamant refusal of Republicans, led by House Republicans, to accept that millionaires and billionaires ought to be part of the deal.”
– Romney ups God rhetoric on campaign trail –
MITT ROMNEY AT A CAMPAIGN EVENT IN OHIO: “That pledge says we are a nation under God and if I’m president of the United States, when and if I’m president of the United States, I will not take God out of my heart, I will not take God out of the public square and I will not take it out of the platform of my party.”
– Reid lays into Ryan over marathon math –
SEN. HARRY REID IN A SPEECH ON THE SENATE FLOOR: “I want to take just a minute and talk about Congressman Ryan’s math, Paul Ryan’s math, his arithmetic. … I would like to take a minute to apply the Ryan math to my marathon times. I’ll just pick one marathon time. I ran the Boston marathon and using the Ryan math, my time would not have been a world record but within minutes, minutes of a world record. I could have made the Olympic team. Using the Ryan math I would have been superb.”
What stopped us in 140 characters or less
David Leonhardt (@DLeonhardt)
And let the groundswell begin for Geithner v Ryan. 10k maybe? http://wapo.st/QxIaA5
Chris Megerian (@ChrisMegerian)
J.P. Morgan says the next iPhone could boost the entire country's fourth quarter GDP. http://bit.ly/OlQ2Gy
Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato)
Romney pollster (& UVA grad) Neil Newhouse is correct when he calls Obama convo bounce "a sugar high". But key Q: Why didn't Romney get 1?
Jim Acosta (@jimacostacnn)
Portman: "we need to teach President Obama how to spell Ohio"
Ari Berman (@AriBerman)
Shocking stat: nearly as many new voting restrictions passed from 2011-2012 as from 1865–1967 http://tnat.in/dwLnu #icymi
60 years of presidential attack ads, mashed into one creepy video by yours truly. From 1952 to 2012 in 8 minutes! http://theatln.tc/U4Tdz6
At St. Mary's Church in Newport, Rhode Island, John F. Kennedy and Jacqueline Bouvier were married on September 12, 1953. According to the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum, the wedding included over 800 guests and featured a special blessing from Pope Pius XII that was read before the ceremony. An additional 450 people were invited to the reception.
The wedding in the high society capital of New England reflected the well-to-do upbringing of both the bride and groom.
“The reception was held on the huge terrace of the 300 acre Auchincloss oceanfront estate, Hammersmith Farm, for more than twelve hundred guests,” according to the Kennedy library’s page devoted to the wedding. “The wedding cake, four feet tall, had been ordered by Joseph Kennedy. Meyer Davis and his orchestra played under a huge canopy.”
Just seven years after the wedding, the Kennedys would become cultural icons as the youngest president and first lady in U.S. history.
GUT CHECK WINNER’S CIRCLE
(why aren’t you in it)
Congratulations to Greg Dean (@gregdean11) for correctly answering today’s Gut Check Trivia question. Dean was the first of many to answer – in some form – that John and Jackie Kennedy were married during this week in history. Congrats Greg.
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