CNN’s GUT CHECK for September 10, 2012
September 10th, 2012
04:52 PM ET
2 years ago

CNN’s GUT CHECK for September 10, 2012

CNN's GUT CHECK | for September 10, 2012 | 5 p.m.
- n. a pause to assess the state, progress or condition of the political news cycle

BREAKING: OBAMA GETS CONVENTION BOUNCE... A new CNN/ORC Poll shows that Barack Obama received a four-point "bounce" following the Democratic National Convention, and he now holds a six-point advantage over Mitt Romney among likely voters.

DEVELOPING: HEADACHE LOOMS FOR WHOEVER WINS A recession is imminent if Congress and the Obama administration don't find a way to avoid impending drastic spending cuts and tax increases, a business group's top economist said Monday. … "If we don't figure out a way to finesse this fiscal cliff . . . if we don't figure out how to kick this can down the road, we will almost certainly be in a recession," said [U.S. Chamber of Commerce's Martin] Regalia in a briefing with reporters. – Jennifer Liberto

TRAIL TRIVIA
(Answer below)
What presidential couple, whose first dance was to “I Married An Angel,” was married on this week in history?

MARK (@PrestonCNN) & MICHELLE (@MJaconiCNN)
What caught our eye today in politics

Going second has its advantages.

Look no further than the new CNN/ORC Poll released this afternoon that shows President Barack Obama not only received a “bounce” out of the Democratic National Convention, but he is also in a much stronger position than he was one week ago.

First, let’s look at the bounce. Heading into the Democratic convention, Obama and Mitt Romney were all tied up at 48%. The new CNN/ORC survey, conducted Friday through Sunday, shows that Obama received a 4 point bounce and the president now holds a 52% to 46% lead over Romney. (Before you start asking questions, a bounce is calculated by taking the amount of support a candidate has before the convention and comparing it to the amount of support a candidate has following the convention. Thus, Obama received a 4 point bounce from the convention, but has a 6 point lead because Romney lost 2 points during that same time period. And to make matters more confusing – the race is still up for grabs given that even Obama’s 6 point lead is within the +/-3.5 sampling error on either side).

So, Obama received a 4 point bounce, the biggest since the 2000 presidential election when then-Vice President Al Gore and his rival then-Texas Gov. George Bush each received 8 point bumps out of their respective conventions. In contrast, Romney only received a 1 point bounce out of the Republican National Convention two weeks ago.

It is not just Obama’s 4 point bounce that caught our eye. The CNN/ORC poll shows that the president made a 5 point gain among men, an 11 point gain among voters under the age of 50 and his favorable rating also climbed by 6 points in the days following the Democratic convention.

But it was the response to the question of who “Has an optimistic vision for the country’s future” Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Now      Last week

Obama    51%      43%

Romney 41%       47%

Optimism among voters is key for Obama even as he faces less than stellar news about the economy such as Friday’s jobs report.

Going second has its advantages, but it is not the only reason why we think Obama gained a little ground on Romney. Taking a step back and comparing the two conventions, it seemed to us that the Democratic delegates were more energized and the convention programming across the three nights was more effective. While Republicans successfully pointed out the president’s shortcomings in office at the GOP convention, Obama’s surrogates were more effective in defending him at the Democratic convention.

But does a convention bounce last? Ask Al Gore. The election is 57 days away and lots can happen in that time.

“On some measures in the poll, it looks like the Democratic convention made a lot of voters forget about the things they liked in the Republican convention,” CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. “The challenge for the Democrats will be figuring out what to do when the voters forget about the Democratic convention as well.”

the LEDE
Did you miss it?

Leading CNNPolitics: Congress has little motivation for compromise before election
After a five-week summer recess, Congress returns to a long list of unfinished business, but with 57 left days before Election Day, it's likely it will tackle only the bare minimum in its short fall session. – Deirdre Walsh

Leading Drudge: Chicago Teachers Walk Out
Mayor Rahm Emanuel sought to frame up the teachers strike today as one that could have been avoided. As he did last night after the Chicago Teachers Union announced the walkout, Emanuel characterized the move as "a strike of choice. And it's the wrong choice for our children." – Tribune reporters in the Chicago Tribune

Leading HuffPo: Romney On Obama Recovery: He Gets No Credit For Stopping Recession From Going Further
In an interview with a local Virginia television station on Sunday, Mitt Romney went further than normal in criticizing the president's handling of the economy, saying that he doesn't deserve credit for stemming the bleeding he inherited from his predecessor. "There has never been a recession that went on forever. There has never been a depression that went on forever," Romney told WVEC News. – Sam Stein

Leading Politico: 9 states where the race will be won
From New Hampshire in the Northeast to Nevada in the Rocky Mountain West, there is little disagreement between the two campaigns about the places where the election will be won and lost. Aside from those two swing states, there are seven others: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. – Charles Mahtesian

Leading The New York Times: A Tight Election May Be Tangled in Legal Battles
The November presidential election, widely expected to rest on a final blitz of advertising and furious campaigning, may also hinge nearly as much on last-minute legal battles over when and how ballots should be cast and counted, particularly if the race remains tight in battleground states. – Ethan Bronner

TRAIL MOMENTS
The political bites of the day

– Team Romney calls surveys showing Obama bounce a 'sugar high' –
NEIL NEWHOUSE, ROMNEY CAMPAIGN POLLSTER, IN A CAMPAIGN MEMO: “Don't get too worked up about the latest polling. While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly. The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama Presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race.”

– Carney: You can’t always get what you want –
PRESS SECRETARY JAY CARNEY AT THE WHITE HOUSE BRIEFING: “When we have the Republicans in control, largely in control in Congress, and definitively in control in the House of Representatives, and Democrats here at the White House and in the Senate … you can’t get everything you want. You cannot stand on your maximalist position and just hold your breath. And what we experienced and what we continue to experience is the adamant refusal of Republicans, led by House Republicans, to accept that millionaires and billionaires ought to be part of the deal.”

– Romney ups God rhetoric on campaign trail –
MITT ROMNEY AT A CAMPAIGN EVENT IN OHIO: “That pledge says we are a nation under God and if I’m president of the United States, when and if I’m president of the United States, I will not take God out of my heart, I will not take God out of the public square and I will not take it out of the platform of my party.”

– Reid lays into Ryan over marathon math –
SEN. HARRY REID IN A SPEECH ON THE SENATE FLOOR: “I want to take just a minute and talk about Congressman Ryan’s math, Paul Ryan’s math, his arithmetic. … I would like to take a minute to apply the Ryan math to my marathon times. I’ll just pick one marathon time. I ran the Boston marathon and using the Ryan math, my time would not have been a world record but within minutes, minutes of a world record. I could have made the Olympic team. Using the Ryan math I would have been superb.”

TOP TWEETS
What stopped us in 140 characters or less

TRIVIA ANSWER

At St. Mary's Church in Newport, Rhode Island, John F. Kennedy and Jacqueline Bouvier were married on September 12, 1953. According to the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum, the wedding included over 800 guests and featured a special blessing from Pope Pius XII that was read before the ceremony. An additional 450 people were invited to the reception.

The wedding in the high society capital of New England reflected the well-to-do upbringing of both the bride and groom.

“The reception was held on the huge terrace of the 300 acre Auchincloss oceanfront estate, Hammersmith Farm, for more than twelve hundred guests,” according to the Kennedy library’s page devoted to the wedding. “The wedding cake, four feet tall, had been ordered by Joseph Kennedy. Meyer Davis and his orchestra played under a huge canopy.”

Just seven years after the wedding, the Kennedys would become cultural icons as the youngest president and first lady in U.S. history.

GUT CHECK WINNER’S CIRCLE
(why aren’t you in it)

Congratulations to Greg Dean (@gregdean11) for correctly answering today’s Gut Check Trivia question. Dean was the first of many to answer – in some form – that John and Jackie Kennedy were married during this week in history. Congrats Greg.

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Tips or comments? Send them to Michelle; send complaints to Preston, because he is already in a bad mood. We also want to give a shout out to Dan Merica, who runs our Twitter account @gutCheckCNN and enriches this product every single day.


Filed under: CNN's Gut Check
soundoff (20 Responses)
  1. Sniffit

    6 point lead in September = major paradigm shift in MSM reporting in order to, they hope, help Mittens close the gap and make it a more exciting (i.e., more viewers and more cliking) "horse race." Just watch.

    September 10, 2012 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  2. Gurgyl

    Mitt is a FRAUD. True. Yes, on OBAMA12.
    PS: mitt is tax fraud, Medicare fraud, immigration fraud.

    September 10, 2012 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  3. truth hurts

    A recession is imminent if Congress and the Obama administration don't find a way to avoid impending drastic spending cuts and tax increases, a business group's top economist said Monday. … "If we don't figure out a way to finesse this fiscal cliff . . . if we don't figure out how to kick this can down the road, we will almost certainly be in a recession,"
    ================================================================================================
    kick the can down the road??? anybody happen to notice there is no more road left?! Obama and the Democrats have brought us to the fiscal cliff and has every intention of driving us right over it.

    i'm sure his new idea will involve borrowing another $4 TRILLION for a stimulus plan to build a new bridge and road over the financial abyss while handing the bill to our kids and grand kids. Any young person voting for Obama is a complete imbecile and a testiment to our union controlled failed school systems.

    September 10, 2012 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  4. Ancient Texan

    JUst an attempt to cheer up the liberal base that knows that Obama is in deep trouble. I can't anyone who will admit to voting for Obama the first time.

    September 10, 2012 05:14 pm at 5:14 pm |
  5. michaelam

    Keep up the momentum and bring on the debates!
    Women for Obama-2012!

    September 10, 2012 05:17 pm at 5:17 pm |
  6. Randy

    Don't expect O to even start to manage the deficit in a second term. Bob Woodward's play by play published 9/8 makes it clear that this POTUS knows nothing about bringing the sides together, only about driving them apart with blame and caustic rhetoric. Argue if you want–but nobody's arguing the truth of Woodward's account.

    September 10, 2012 05:23 pm at 5:23 pm |
  7. w l jones

    Stimulus money just beginning to filter through the economic, medicare come on line alone with medical building construction at and all time high with and economic boom within sight we will be alright with our debt.

    September 10, 2012 05:24 pm at 5:24 pm |
  8. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    Like the song says: "More bounce to the ounce!".
    Obama 2012. Period.

    September 10, 2012 05:27 pm at 5:27 pm |
  9. nonsense

    Ancient Tex, you got your answer, if you are from Texas, that's is why no one voted for Obama.

    September 10, 2012 05:28 pm at 5:28 pm |
  10. Sniffit

    "A recession is imminent if Congress and the Obama administration don't find a way to avoid impending drastic spending cuts and tax increases, a business group's top economist said Monday."

    And if Obama is re-elected, you can bet your left giblet/ovary that the GOP/Teatrolls will do everything they can to punish us with that recession for electing "that one" again.

    September 10, 2012 05:44 pm at 5:44 pm |
  11. Sniffit

    "Bob Woodward's play by play published 9/8 makes it clear that this POTUS knows nothing about bringing the sides together, only about driving them apart with blame and caustic rhetoric. "

    Yawn. Let me translate: "He knew very well when he ran for POTUS that he was black. If he had wanted to unify the country and get people to meet in the middle across the aisle then he would've been white, but nooooooooo, he had to go and be black."

    September 10, 2012 05:51 pm at 5:51 pm |
  12. truth hurts

    when will obama announce the tax increase on all the future tax payers for his runaway spending and borrowing? shouldn't I be allowed to vote for my young kids to reject this massive future tax liability that Obama and the Democrats want to saddle them with? why should they have to work most of their lives only to give their money over to a government that uses it to give free healthcare, food and housing to illlegals now? THEY won't be able to afford these things when and if they can find a job because most of their money will be taken from them by the government before they ever see it. Totally immoral generation theft and enslavement.

    September 10, 2012 06:03 pm at 6:03 pm |
  13. Four and The Door

    Still yet to come: Debates. Advantage: Romney/ Ryan. Why, you ask? Obama/ Biden 2012 will have to face 2 teams with some serious reasons why they should not be re-elected; Romney/ Ryan 2012 and Obama/ Biden 2008.

    September 10, 2012 08:04 pm at 8:04 pm |
  14. n

    whatever, wherever and whenever, President Barack Obama will rise to the occasion . . . He has been tested and approved. Romney is still wet behind the ears.

    September 10, 2012 08:37 pm at 8:37 pm |
  15. T'sah From Virginia

    What's up with the two GUT CHECKS CNN??? It's so NICE you have to print it TWICE??? LOL
    Therefore, i will post on it twice!!

    Obama/Biden 2012 – The Only Trusted Way Forward!!

    September 10, 2012 09:15 pm at 9:15 pm |
  16. Ancient Texan

    Nonsense-True. Obama got 43% in 2008 in the State. He won't break 40% in 2012.

    September 10, 2012 09:23 pm at 9:23 pm |
  17. GI Joe

    The good old communistic Chamber of Commerce - yup, a fiiiiinnneee American trajedy.

    September 10, 2012 10:52 pm at 10:52 pm |
  18. Former Republican, now an Independent

    It's ironic that unions are always demonized in the media, but when America's largest union, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (the union of big business and corporations) begins complaining about a fiscal cliff they helped to create, the media prints their concerns sympathetically.

    September 10, 2012 11:49 pm at 11:49 pm |
  19. craigles

    Romney picked the wrong running mate, the guy's an amateur.

    September 11, 2012 12:57 am at 12:57 am |
  20. Malory Archer

    "If we don't figure out a way to finesse this fiscal cliff . . . if we don't figure out how to kick this can down the road, we will almost certainly be in a recession,"
    ================================================================================================
    kick the can down the road??? anybody happen to notice there is no more road left?! Obama and the Democrats have brought us to the fiscal cliff and has every intention of driving us right over it.

    i'm sure his new idea will involve borrowing another $4 TRILLION for a stimulus plan to build a new bridge and road over the financial abyss while handing the bill to our kids and grand kids. Any young person voting for Obama is a complete imbecile and a testiment to our union controlled failed school systems.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Interesting how you conveniently omit the name of the person you quoted in the first line of your post. Since you failed to be honest (kinda like your heros R&R) and copy/paste the entire post, the quote was made by none other than U.S. Chamber of Commerce's Martin Regalia in a briefing with reporters. The Chamber isn't exactly some sort of socialist organization. Perhaps they fear the rethugs will lose the House in November, so they are alluding to the fact that they need to push their inactions and filibustering over the last 4 years onto the Democratic majority and hope that enough Americans suffer from amnesia and forget about said inaction/filibustering to get them elected in 2016.

    September 11, 2012 08:25 am at 8:25 am |