Poll: Warren moves ahead of Brown in Mass. Senate race
September 17th, 2012
11:00 PM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Warren moves ahead of Brown in Mass. Senate race

(CNN) – Democratic Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts appears to have received a slight bounce after her big speech at the Democratic National Convention, according to a new poll released Monday.

The Suffolk University/7News poll indicates Warren has a four-percentage-point margin, 48%-44%, among likely voters over Republican incumbent Sen. Scott Brown.

– Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

The survey was conducted September 13-16, more than a week after Warren gave a rousing address ahead of former President Bill Clinton at the convention in Charlotte, North Carolina.

"The Democratic National Convention appears to have connected the dots for some voters in Massachusetts," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. "Warren benefited not only from her own speech, but from the oratory of others, both inside and outside of Massachusetts."

The survey comes one day after a poll by Western New England University indicated Warren has a six-point advantage among likely voters, 50%-44%. Like the Suffolk poll, the margin falls within the poll's sampling error.

Warren and Brown have been in a dead heat for the better part of a year in their Senate contest, one of the most expensive and closely watched congressional races this year. In a May survey by Suffolk, Brown had a one-point edge over Warren, 48% to 47%. The incumbent is defending the seat he won in a 2010 special election to replace the late Ted Kennedy.

Before her campaign, Warren was best known as a watchdog of the government's corporate bailout program, a top financial adviser to President Barack Obama and the force behind a high-profile agency borne from the 2010 Wall Street reform legislation, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. She now tries to paint herself as the candidate best equipped to fight for the middle class.

"For many years now, our middle class has been chipped, squeezed, and hammered," she said in her convention speech. "People feel like the system is rigged against them. And here's the painful part: They're right. The system is rigged."

For his part, Brown didn't make a high-profile speech at the GOP convention last month, and he is less than shy about asserting his independent spirit as a Republican in typically Democratic Massachusetts. In a fund-raising appeal Monday, Brown pointed to a recent negative ad by Warren's campaign, the first of her Senate bid, and one to which he responded with his own spot last week.

"Instead of talking about things that matter, like jobs, she's being dishonest about who I am and what I stand for," Brown says in the commercial. "Don't be fooled by Elizabeth Warren's negative attacks. Like a lot of you, I came from nothing. I'm on your side, fighting for the middle class."

The Suffolk poll revealed that while Brown's favorability rating has hardly changed since May, Warren saw a significant increase in the number of voters who say they hold a favorable view of the Democratic candidate. Fifty-two percent have a positive view of Warren, up from 43% in May.

Also notable, 19% of voters who support President Barack Obama said they would cross parties to vote for Brown - a number that has decreased from 24% in May.

The survey, however, indicated some good news for Brown. Fifty percent of voters preferred having a member of each party representing Massachusetts in Washington DC, while 45% said it didn't matter.

"Call it the party-parity-paradox," said Paleologos. "Likely voters of all parties see a benefit to having Democrat John Kerry and Republican Scott Brown representing Massachusetts in the U.S. Senate."
The two face off in their first televised debate Thursday.

Suffolk University Political Research Center interviewed 600 likely Massachusetts voters by telephone September 13-16, 2012. The sampling error is four percentage points.


Filed under: 2012 • Elizabeth Warren • Massachusetts • Polls • Scott Brown • Senate
soundoff (54 Responses)
  1. ianaleah

    Romney probably isn't a total sociopath, but he comes really really close. in my opinion, but think whatever you want.

    September 18, 2012 08:40 am at 8:40 am |
  2. ianaleah

    Romney seems to have a lot in common with sociopaths, a lot -in my opinion. But, think whatever you want.

    September 18, 2012 08:42 am at 8:42 am |
  3. yolanda

    Another Native American success story.......

    September 18, 2012 08:52 am at 8:52 am |
  4. Reality for you

    A vote for Warren is a vote for collectivism/communism. And Romney is right: 47% on government handouts will vote for her and Obama because they could care less about freedom; as long as they get their piece of the pie they're happy. Problem is: it won't be long until that pie is replaced with a crust of bread and maybe some water.

    September 18, 2012 08:54 am at 8:54 am |
  5. Fair is Fair

    If she wins, will she be the first female 1/32 Native American senator?

    September 18, 2012 08:58 am at 8:58 am |
  6. danita

    Romeny spoke the truth, the percentage is a little high... But half of Obama's voters don't pay taxes, think someone needs to provide them everything. If you don't think so why don't we get the welfare numbers of how long people have been on the system and has never worked. People who need help can't get it, and no matter what Romney says or does these people are going to vote Obama again. You people should listen 1st... But then I again a lot of dems. only know what they hear. Romney did not include disabled poeple or vets... But most disable vets continue to work if they can. We got people with a bad foot claiming they are disable and will not work in a pie shop. It is time for welfare people to stop being the poor people while working poor people are going without. We got young women having 4 and 5 kids no daddy living off of the system without a worry. Yes vote Obama again, so he can continue to expand this broken welfare system. You working people waiting will continue to wait and you will buy insurance next year unless you qualify for medicad.

    September 18, 2012 09:01 am at 9:01 am |
  7. C.Jones

    "All he did was tell the truth! People like free stuff! They will vote for the person that gives it to them."

    Except, that's not true. Most people receiving government assistance vote Republican.

    September 18, 2012 09:02 am at 9:02 am |
  8. danita

    I wouldn't vote obama if the devil was running against him. oh, sorry obama is the 666.

    September 18, 2012 09:02 am at 9:02 am |
  9. pmurphey

    I think the way the media focuses on anything Mitt Romney says is a disgrace. The world is falling apart yet the press declines to ask the administration one tough question much less a follow up. What happened in Libya no one is even asking. What did the administration know, no one is asking, This press has become the governmental propaganda machine and the only way they can re-elect the guy they want is to join the Obama administration in demonizing Romney. Hopefully Americans are smart enough to see through this ploy and vote for who will turn this country around and that is definitely not this President. Romney told the truth 47% of americans do not pay Federal Income Tax that is a fact not the hate speech the press is making it out to be.

    September 18, 2012 09:07 am at 9:07 am |
  10. Fox Geek

    Romney hit the nail on the head, it's a discrace that 47% of americans pay no federal income taxes, yet we have 48mm on food stamps. 47%, do you really think all of the programs can be paid by the 53% that do pay taxes. Its no wonder we borrow 48 cents of every dollar we spend. Sure a lot of the 47% have payroll taxes but they get it all back in refunds the next year. The truth is a very painful thing.

    September 18, 2012 09:20 am at 9:20 am |
  11. GI Joe

    Even FOX is talking about how blatant R/R are in their lies. They aren't correct very often, but on this one they are.

    Vulture/Voucher will not win.

    September 18, 2012 09:34 am at 9:34 am |
  12. debbie

    Amazes me how people don't care if someone is a liar anymore. My great grandmother was full blooded indian and i don't try to use that to advance my life in any way, here is a woman that rip off the system by lying. How little people care anymore.

    September 18, 2012 09:34 am at 9:34 am |
  13. Rosslaw

    While Scott Brown can act independently of the teatard republicans, he is bought and paid for by the financial industry and will do everythiing possible to maintain the current predator/prey relationship between banks and their marks, eh, cujstomers and the business model of "snares and traps" which Warren exposed and fought against.

    September 18, 2012 09:35 am at 9:35 am |
  14. Namejkane sfl a vote for the gop will cut your moms medicare and soc sec .can you afford to pay for them???

    People just don't want to vote for any republicans for any office ,well deserved lose coming in Nov and beyond!!!!

    September 18, 2012 09:39 am at 9:39 am |
  15. Duke

    If Gov Romney's comments upset you then guess what? You are a 47 Percenter! Congratulations You've accomplished a lot in your TV, celebrity worshiping life. I'm so happy Romney believes that so many Americans are dead wood and the tree needs to be shaken! GO MITT, the country needed to hear the facts. I know, the truth hurts.

    September 18, 2012 09:39 am at 9:39 am |
  16. Dave

    I continue to be amazed at the weak minded reponses from so many liberal commenters. They refuse to take an intelligent look at the obvious. They support spending like drunken sailors with no end in sight because they are selfish "me first at any cost" people. They don't care that they are borrowing the largess from the rest of the world and handing the bill to their children, grand children and farther. They willingly refuse to learn from the Europe model that is collapsing as we speak. Somehow they think we are different and can selfishly continue to vote more for themselves. Romney has it right, they are dependent and happy to be so. Another 4 year of Obama and you won't have the ability to vote for more, there won't be anymore.

    September 18, 2012 09:42 am at 9:42 am |
  17. "Oust the House" in 2012, vote a straight Democratic ticket!

    Getting closer to our goal, awesome!

    September 18, 2012 09:49 am at 9:49 am |
  18. Q

    Elizabeth Warren will make a fine senator. She will represent 100% of the electorate, not just the chosen few 53%. She will leave no man behind.

    September 18, 2012 09:49 am at 9:49 am |
  19. Donkey Party

    Rick McDenial – Hmm, it's your far-right wing GOP masters who are trying to suppress the vote, as well as forcing their backward beliefs on the populace. Who are the dictators again? Fool.

    September 18, 2012 09:54 am at 9:54 am |
  20. Bill

    If she'll lie about her heritage, she'll lie about anything.

    September 18, 2012 09:54 am at 9:54 am |
  21. Sandy

    "Instead of talking about things that matter, like jobs, she's being dishonest about who I am and what I stand for," Brown says in the commercial. "Don't be fooled by Elizabeth Warren's negative attacks. Like a lot of you, I came from nothing. I'm on your side, fighting for the middle class."

    Brown doesn't want Warren talking about his record because he doesn't want people to know that he LIED in his campaign ads. He said he was pro choice and for women's rights, but he sponsored and voted for the Blunt Amendment and every bill that restricted women's rights. He also voted AGAINST the fair paycheck act. He's a LIAR just like Romney and he's mad that Elizabeth Warren is pointing out his record. Informing people of his record is not negative campaigning. She is not attacking him personally, just his voting record.

    September 18, 2012 09:55 am at 9:55 am |
  22. Donkey Party

    bb – You're right! How did Marco Rubio get away with it? Simpleton.

    September 18, 2012 09:55 am at 9:55 am |
  23. vida Martinez

    The liberal media always takes everything out of context. The Obama campaign is so desperate that they take a "hidden camera" and edit the tape. Why don't they show the whole tape. You can tell that is edited to promote their own agenda. a "hidden camera", how sneaky they are. Omaba is bad news for this country.

    September 18, 2012 09:57 am at 9:57 am |
  24. Donkey Party

    Anyone understand what w.bullock is trying to say? I'm not fluent in Bumpkinese, and I've lost my NASCAR decoder ring too.

    September 18, 2012 09:58 am at 9:58 am |
  25. alivegas99

    This new America makes me want to puke. All of this hate for the rich/successful. Everyone rallying for income redistribution. People who think college loans should be at 0% interest. People who want free health care, housing, food.

    I am against every republican social stance, from their barbaric stance on abortion to their horrible treatment for gay rights. But I must vote republican for the safety of the American economy. No matter the gov. official I do not think we are at risk of going backwards on these social issues, but if we continue to propagate the welfare state of America, living in a way that is beyond our means, stacking debt to the ceiling (today's debt being a guarantee of higher taxes for EVERYONE in later years), we will be leaving Today's Europe to our kids tomorrow.

    September 18, 2012 09:58 am at 9:58 am |
1 2 3