New polls give Obama slight edge
September 19th, 2012
12:34 PM ET
2 years ago

New polls give Obama slight edge

(CNN) - A slew of polls released over the past 24 hours in crucial battleground states suggest the race for the White House remains tight, but indicate President Obama with a slight edge over Republican nominee Mitt Romney. It's a similar storyline in new national polling.

All of the surveys were conducted either entirely or almost entirely before Monday afternoon's release of secretly recorded remarks that Romney made at a private fund-raiser in May, where he described supporters of President Barack Obama as dependent on government. Fallout from the controversial clips has dominated coverage of the race for the White House over the past two days.

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– Check out more polls at the CNN Polling Center.

Five non-partisan live operator state polls have been released since Tuesday: Two in Virginia, and one in Wisconsin, Colorado and New Hampshire. Obama is on top of Romney in all of them, but the margins are within the sampling error in three of them.

In Virginia, a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released Wednesday indicates the president at 50% and Romney at 46%. Obama's advantage is within the survey's sampling error. The president holds a 52%-44% lead over Romney in Virginia in a Washington Post poll out Tuesday. Other partisan polling in the commonwealth suggests a closer contest.

Then-Senator Obama won Virginia by two percentage points in the 2008 election, becoming the first Democrat to carry the commonwealth in a presidential contest since 1964. This cycle Obama has made eight swings through the state (not including quick visits to suburban Washington, DC in northern Virginia) since the unofficial start of the general election in early April, with Romney making eight tours through Virginia. Both campaigns, as well as the super PACs and other independent groups backing the candidates, have flooded Virginia airwaves with campaign commercials.

Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times also released a survey Wednesday in Wisconsin, which Obama won by double digits four years ago. According to the poll, Obama has a 51%-45% advantage over Romney, up from a two-point margin in late August. Romney's running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan, is a seven-term congressman from Wisconsin.

The third Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll out Wednesday indicates the battle for Colorado's nine electoral votes is all knotted up, with 48% of likely voters backing the president and 47% supporting Romney. Romney held a five point advantage in their last poll in the state, which was conducted last month before both parties' political conventions.

The new survey is in-line with an American Research Group poll released last week in Colorado that indicated Obama with a narrow two point margin over Romney. The president's edge in both surveys is within the sampling error. President George W. Bush carried Colorado in the 2000 and 2004 elections, with Obama turning the state blue four years ago.

The new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times surveys in all three states indicate that the president has cut into Romney's one-time lead on handling the economy. Pluralities in all three states also say they see Obama's policies as favoring the middle class, while a majority see Romney's proposals as benefiting the wealthy.

According to the surveys, the gender gap is alive and well, with a majority of men in all three states favoring Romney and a majority of women supporting Obama. Romney has the advantage among independent voters in Virginia and Wisconsin, but they are divided between the two candidates in Colorado.

New polls in New Hampshire indicate that the swing state remains a battleground. An American Research Group survey in the Granite State has Obama at 48% among the wider pool of registered voters, with Romney at 46%. According to a WMUR-TV/Granite State poll of likely voters released last week, the president held a five point advantage. The margins in polls were within the surveys sampling errors. Obama won New Hampshire by nine points four years ago, but voters in the state are very familiar with Romney. He was the governor of neighboring Massachusetts and he owns a vacation home in the state.

Nationally, the president also holds a small advantage. A CNN Poll of Polls, which averages the three non-partisan, live operator, surveys of likely voters conducted over the past week has the president at 48% and Romney at 45%.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (68 Responses)
  1. FedUp

    Hopefully it is one of the polls I participated in. I love to lie on those!

    September 19, 2012 02:14 pm at 2:14 pm |
  2. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    From what I have seen of third world countries, they have no middle class, no unions, no safety regulations, they are controlled by a rich ruling class, have no education, and relatively little infrastructure. You know, kind of like Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Afghanistan, and South Carolina.

    September 19, 2012 02:15 pm at 2:15 pm |
  3. on StreetWise

    Mitt: "Corporations are people my friend"... Stay thirsty, for POWER!

    September 19, 2012 02:16 pm at 2:16 pm |
  4. jo jo

    Anyone stupid enough to vote for Romney/Ryan deserves what they get. Tlhe Republicans have a good narrative. Just the mere fact of voter suppression, buying the elections, any doing things and lying saying the democrats are doing what they are actually doing is enough to lose anyone's vote. Romney is all about power, It's just amazing how naive people are.

    September 19, 2012 02:17 pm at 2:17 pm |
  5. max

    Obama is doing a hell of a lot better than the last clown republican in the whitehouse, they don't even want to mention Bush's name or have him around during the last two campaigns. 30 years of Reagan vodo trickle down econ theory is what has killed this country, and Romney will do the same. Wake up conservative trolls, it is republican policies that do not work

    September 19, 2012 02:18 pm at 2:18 pm |
  6. Gurgyl

    Obama12. Period.

    September 19, 2012 02:19 pm at 2:19 pm |
  7. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    Why do right wingnuts think that a failed governor of MA, will be able to help all Americans? Mittens created $2.6 billion in debt in MA, outsourced MA government jobs to India, raised taxes in MA 700 times, and MA was 47th in job creation in his one term. He left MA with a high disapproval rating.

    September 19, 2012 02:19 pm at 2:19 pm |
  8. Jean

    American Research Group actually has Obama at 48, romney at 46. It's wrong.
    Link

    http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/pres12/

    September 19, 2012 02:19 pm at 2:19 pm |
  9. Hammerer

    For all that these polls matter. After Obama's owners visit the pollesters with their threats the polls will show whatever Obama wants; ie Gallup. A law suit goes a long way to change a person's view.

    September 19, 2012 02:20 pm at 2:20 pm |
  10. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    FedUp – You love to lie? You must be a republican like Mittens and lyin Ryan.

    September 19, 2012 02:20 pm at 2:20 pm |
  11. dpcfoh

    Polls get a little out of control, one everyday from a different group, showing a different result. The only one that really matters is the one on election day, but some people are too lazy to gather their own facts and make their own decision that they just go where the poll takes them.

    September 19, 2012 02:23 pm at 2:23 pm |
  12. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    Remember right wingnuts, the ultimate terrorist attack under a republican president occurred on 9-11. There were over a dozen embassy attacks under Bush, and he apologized for a soldier shooting the Quran. We refer to it as republican resolve.

    September 19, 2012 02:24 pm at 2:24 pm |
  13. Bart Hawkins San Antonio TX

    The fact that these "remarks," were SECRETLY RECORDED....and released piecemeal, with no emphasis whatsoever on what MItt actually said – namely that the 47% in favor of Obama favor big government, etc. etc. and are NOT going to be folks that his campaign can possibly sway with ANY argument.

    I fail to see what the hullaballo is all about, but Mitt is not only RIGHT, but secret recordings of campaign strategies have been made before.....

    Anybody remember a guy named Richard Nixon?

    Frankly, CNN is fueling a non-existent controversy with their unmitigated pro-Obama bias (making this story out to be "news," when in fact the "news," is the illegal recording and release of same by the opposition).

    Wow. Guess in your world, CNN, Halderman, Ehrlichman, and da Boyz would be lauded rather than imprisoned.....

    September 19, 2012 02:25 pm at 2:25 pm |
  14. SilkyOne

    I have to wonder how some of these people supporting R&R can ignore the fact that Romney has outed 47% of the American people (his own words); insulted 4 different countries (his own words); flip flopped on many issues (his own words); lied (his own words); and yet they follow him like sheep with blinders on. Don't any of you pay attention to what he's been doing, not just now, but in the past. I don't vote for one ticket, I vote for who is going to do things for my Family, for me, and yes, I am going to vote for Obama because if not for him, I wouldn't have insurance, I do have not just one, but TWO pre-existing conditions that insurance wasn't covering, PLUS I am a woman, if I get raped, I would want the choice to have an abortion, not be forced not to, like Romney wants to take away, not to mention I want my kids to be able to get grants for college, not taken away like Romney wants; I want my brother, a vet, to get the care he needs, not have it taken away like romney wants; I want my mother to have medicare not vouchers like romney wants. EVERYONE OF YOU should be concerned about this, because everyone of you is affected in one way or another..but many who follow Romney don't care, they only see "Republican" and follow. It's so sad, and shameful. Read and learn, it's your RIGHT, don't waste it. I'm from Wisconsin too, and saw the GM plant close, and NO it wasn't Obama's fault as Ryan claimed, it was closing long before that. As for Ryan, I wrote and wrote him, called his office and he was very unwilling to speak to me on medical laws, and other issues..he is not a very open person when it comes to the public..don't let him fool you. To see some of the comments here is laughable, and a shame to America.

    September 19, 2012 02:26 pm at 2:26 pm |
  15. Bart Hawkins San Antonio TX

    I'll just bet my previous post is "awaiting moderation." Seems like EVERY anti-Prez comment gets deleted.

    Thanks for the bias, CNN!

    September 19, 2012 02:27 pm at 2:27 pm |
  16. obama is Out Of Touch with reality

    well when you are a bought and paid for liberal media you can fake the polls by only contacting godless demoncrats

    September 19, 2012 02:27 pm at 2:27 pm |
  17. Francisco Decastro

    How do you vote on these polls?

    September 19, 2012 02:30 pm at 2:30 pm |
  18. Al-NY,NY

    senfhawk

    I would convert to become a MORMON
    before I would VOTE FOR COMMUNISM
    ---------------------

    Wow. I didn't know people in North Korea had access to CNN..let alone give them the ability to comment. OH WAIT!!...it's just some misinformed rightie parroting Limpy or Shamitty's talking points. My bad

    September 19, 2012 02:30 pm at 2:30 pm |
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