New polls give Obama slight edge
September 19th, 2012
12:34 PM ET
2 years ago

New polls give Obama slight edge

(CNN) - A slew of polls released over the past 24 hours in crucial battleground states suggest the race for the White House remains tight, but indicate President Obama with a slight edge over Republican nominee Mitt Romney. It's a similar storyline in new national polling.

All of the surveys were conducted either entirely or almost entirely before Monday afternoon's release of secretly recorded remarks that Romney made at a private fund-raiser in May, where he described supporters of President Barack Obama as dependent on government. Fallout from the controversial clips has dominated coverage of the race for the White House over the past two days.

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Five non-partisan live operator state polls have been released since Tuesday: Two in Virginia, and one in Wisconsin, Colorado and New Hampshire. Obama is on top of Romney in all of them, but the margins are within the sampling error in three of them.

In Virginia, a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released Wednesday indicates the president at 50% and Romney at 46%. Obama's advantage is within the survey's sampling error. The president holds a 52%-44% lead over Romney in Virginia in a Washington Post poll out Tuesday. Other partisan polling in the commonwealth suggests a closer contest.

Then-Senator Obama won Virginia by two percentage points in the 2008 election, becoming the first Democrat to carry the commonwealth in a presidential contest since 1964. This cycle Obama has made eight swings through the state (not including quick visits to suburban Washington, DC in northern Virginia) since the unofficial start of the general election in early April, with Romney making eight tours through Virginia. Both campaigns, as well as the super PACs and other independent groups backing the candidates, have flooded Virginia airwaves with campaign commercials.

Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times also released a survey Wednesday in Wisconsin, which Obama won by double digits four years ago. According to the poll, Obama has a 51%-45% advantage over Romney, up from a two-point margin in late August. Romney's running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan, is a seven-term congressman from Wisconsin.

The third Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll out Wednesday indicates the battle for Colorado's nine electoral votes is all knotted up, with 48% of likely voters backing the president and 47% supporting Romney. Romney held a five point advantage in their last poll in the state, which was conducted last month before both parties' political conventions.

The new survey is in-line with an American Research Group poll released last week in Colorado that indicated Obama with a narrow two point margin over Romney. The president's edge in both surveys is within the sampling error. President George W. Bush carried Colorado in the 2000 and 2004 elections, with Obama turning the state blue four years ago.

The new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times surveys in all three states indicate that the president has cut into Romney's one-time lead on handling the economy. Pluralities in all three states also say they see Obama's policies as favoring the middle class, while a majority see Romney's proposals as benefiting the wealthy.

According to the surveys, the gender gap is alive and well, with a majority of men in all three states favoring Romney and a majority of women supporting Obama. Romney has the advantage among independent voters in Virginia and Wisconsin, but they are divided between the two candidates in Colorado.

New polls in New Hampshire indicate that the swing state remains a battleground. An American Research Group survey in the Granite State has Obama at 48% among the wider pool of registered voters, with Romney at 46%. According to a WMUR-TV/Granite State poll of likely voters released last week, the president held a five point advantage. The margins in polls were within the surveys sampling errors. Obama won New Hampshire by nine points four years ago, but voters in the state are very familiar with Romney. He was the governor of neighboring Massachusetts and he owns a vacation home in the state.

Nationally, the president also holds a small advantage. A CNN Poll of Polls, which averages the three non-partisan, live operator, surveys of likely voters conducted over the past week has the president at 48% and Romney at 45%.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (68 Responses)
  1. Yonni

    To be fair Mitt only insulted 47% of the US population; comparing this to England he had managed to insult 100% of the population, relatively Mitt didn't do that bad with us.

    September 19, 2012 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm |
  2. ja

    the polls are wrong Obama will win with landslide practically

    September 19, 2012 12:46 pm at 12:46 pm |
  3. Ron

    70% of Americans do not vote. Most of those that do not vote do so out of dissatisfaction with the Democratic and Republican parties. This means less than 30% of our population is deciding our government leaders. WE outnumber THEM. If even half of the "non-voters" voted for a candidate it would be a landslide victory for a third party candidate over the Republican or Democratic candidate. And the Republican and Demorcats know it – WHY DO YOU THINK THEY REFUSE TO ALLOW ANY THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES INTO THE DEABTES? It's time to stand up for what we believe in and take back OUR government. Vote thrid party – I don't care if it's Libertarian (Johnson), Constitutionalist (Goode) or Green (Stein) ... all of them are on enough states ballots to win, yet the media doesn't allow them to speak or even appear on a poll. That's becasue the media is bought and paid for – just like the Republican and Democratic candidates are. How very convenient (sarcasm).

    September 19, 2012 12:46 pm at 12:46 pm |
  4. Wake up People!

    I am really getting SICK of all these polls!

    OBAMA 2012!

    September 19, 2012 12:48 pm at 12:48 pm |
  5. HOLY TIGHTY WHITIES WILLARD

    The President has a 6 point lead here in Virginia. Virginia will remain blue. I've got a feeling a republican stronghold(TEXAS) will turn blue this year as well.

    September 19, 2012 12:49 pm at 12:49 pm |
  6. PoorPotato

    Bummer!

    September 19, 2012 12:49 pm at 12:49 pm |
  7. jimini

    Democrats for Romney! 2012!

    We can't afford 4 more years of Obama. Obama is a nice guy and real cool and all but I and my friends need a job, not a cool president.

    September 19, 2012 12:49 pm at 12:49 pm |
  8. Lionel

    Mitt the twit is only running to be president for half of America. The other half he does not care about.

    Seniors, Students, Teachers, Firemen, Policemen who get their checks from government are part of Mitt's idea of big government.

    Latinos for Obama 2012

    September 19, 2012 12:50 pm at 12:50 pm |
  9. Rick in L.A.

    You heard it here first: President Obama wins in November. Reason? Americans are just too smart to let a man who can't articulate run the greatest country in the Free World. Seriously; do you want Mitt Romney with his finger anywhere near the Nuclear Button, meeting world leaders or sending more Americans off to a bogus war?

    September 19, 2012 12:52 pm at 12:52 pm |
  10. bb

    Romney's campaign is now on life support and the 47% will help pull the plug on Nov. 6th.

    September 19, 2012 12:52 pm at 12:52 pm |
  11. ST

    The leakage of the secret video has come at the bad time for Romney, keeping in mind that he tried hard during GOP convention to uplift his likability. I do assume in the next poll, his likability and his efforts he has put on, will be wiped off in a really significant way.

    September 19, 2012 12:52 pm at 12:52 pm |
  12. Welfare Mittens

    Why are many conservative Superpacs pulling out of places like Michigan & Detroit? Time is running out and we still haven't seen the tax returns.

    September 19, 2012 12:54 pm at 12:54 pm |
  13. Ancient Texan

    Romney's off the cuff remarks about the 47% (TRUE!) and Obama's APOLOGY tours coupled with his meddling in the ARAB SPRING uprisings that triggered the embassy attacks will probably offset each other and disappear from the front page in a few days...... (NOT).

    September 19, 2012 12:55 pm at 12:55 pm |
  14. PeterD

    If Someone doesn't do his or her Job, We American People shall let Him Go.

    September 19, 2012 12:56 pm at 12:56 pm |
  15. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    Republican seniors, along with republican voting veterans, and union workers, must love being crapped on by the elitist Mittens.

    September 19, 2012 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |
  16. Gurgyl

    These polls–you believe? Any one with brain, proper thinking capacity–will vote for pres. Obama. Mitt Romney is a FRAUD. Tax fraud, Medicare fraud, immigration fraud...jobs shipping to China, India fraud. Total nonsense. Yes, on Obama12.

    September 19, 2012 01:00 pm at 1:00 pm |
  17. robert

    keep saying hes leading in the polls by this great number,dem's will get say he won i dont have to vote ,then your SCREWED

    September 19, 2012 01:01 pm at 1:01 pm |
  18. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    Birther Mittens sure needs the 5 million birthers fired up. I do wonder if any of them are in the 47% that Mittens hates.

    September 19, 2012 01:02 pm at 1:02 pm |
  19. Hillcrester

    Before GOP partisans decide to agree with Romney's latest claims, please realize what you are agreeing with:

    The 47% of tax units that had no federal income tax liability that year are made up predominantly of seniors with little income besides SS, students who may have part-time jobs but too little income to be taxed, disabled persons unable to work, and employed people with low incomes and/or enough dependents to owe no taxes.

    Do you agree with Romney that folks like those see themselves as victims, are unwilling to better themselves, are just looking for an undeserved handout, etc?

    Sadly, many of them normally favor the GOP and might have voted for Romney if he were not so committed to disparaging them.

    Do you still agree with what he said?

    September 19, 2012 01:03 pm at 1:03 pm |
  20. judy

    polls will only get better the closer we get . Debates should just about do romney in. The man is like a piece of cardboard. Hes not worried about 47% of us though. These rich fat cats won't know what to spend their money on come November. How about helping people? Novel idea ?

    September 19, 2012 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |
  21. NVa Native

    Romoney was insulting 47% of the population who typically has a full time job, retirement income, or at least some income, but make so little money they aren't taxed. I thought the GOP's main bumper sticker was reducing taxes and now they demonize people for not being legally obligated to pay more taxes.
    Romoney claims he's paid all the taxes he has too. Romoney doesn't pay any income taxes either, but he makes tens of millions every year. Where is the difference between Romoney and the people he disdains?
    So what makes Romoney so above it all?
    Typical outright self-righteous GOP arrogance- that's all.

    September 19, 2012 01:10 pm at 1:10 pm |
  22. Jim Hahn

    It's the beginning of a trend. By the time the election gets here, Romney will be six points behind at least.

    September 19, 2012 01:23 pm at 1:23 pm |
  23. bb

    The Romney campaign is taking on water and the rats like Scott Brown, Chris Christie, and Linda Mcmahon are already jumping this sinking ship by distancing themselves from him.

    September 19, 2012 01:27 pm at 1:27 pm |
  24. Fair is Fair

    HOLY TIGHTY WHITIES WILLARD

    The President has a 6 point lead here in Virginia. Virginia will remain blue. I've got a feeling a republican stronghold(TEXAS) will turn blue this year as well.
    ------
    You're delusional.

    September 19, 2012 01:27 pm at 1:27 pm |
  25. myviewis

    Romney = Jobs
    Obama = Unemployment

    September 19, 2012 01:29 pm at 1:29 pm |
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