New polls give Obama slight edge
September 19th, 2012
12:34 PM ET
6 years ago

New polls give Obama slight edge

(CNN) - A slew of polls released over the past 24 hours in crucial battleground states suggest the race for the White House remains tight, but indicate President Obama with a slight edge over Republican nominee Mitt Romney. It's a similar storyline in new national polling.

All of the surveys were conducted either entirely or almost entirely before Monday afternoon's release of secretly recorded remarks that Romney made at a private fund-raiser in May, where he described supporters of President Barack Obama as dependent on government. Fallout from the controversial clips has dominated coverage of the race for the White House over the past two days.

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Five non-partisan live operator state polls have been released since Tuesday: Two in Virginia, and one in Wisconsin, Colorado and New Hampshire. Obama is on top of Romney in all of them, but the margins are within the sampling error in three of them.

In Virginia, a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released Wednesday indicates the president at 50% and Romney at 46%. Obama's advantage is within the survey's sampling error. The president holds a 52%-44% lead over Romney in Virginia in a Washington Post poll out Tuesday. Other partisan polling in the commonwealth suggests a closer contest.

Then-Senator Obama won Virginia by two percentage points in the 2008 election, becoming the first Democrat to carry the commonwealth in a presidential contest since 1964. This cycle Obama has made eight swings through the state (not including quick visits to suburban Washington, DC in northern Virginia) since the unofficial start of the general election in early April, with Romney making eight tours through Virginia. Both campaigns, as well as the super PACs and other independent groups backing the candidates, have flooded Virginia airwaves with campaign commercials.

Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times also released a survey Wednesday in Wisconsin, which Obama won by double digits four years ago. According to the poll, Obama has a 51%-45% advantage over Romney, up from a two-point margin in late August. Romney's running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan, is a seven-term congressman from Wisconsin.

The third Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll out Wednesday indicates the battle for Colorado's nine electoral votes is all knotted up, with 48% of likely voters backing the president and 47% supporting Romney. Romney held a five point advantage in their last poll in the state, which was conducted last month before both parties' political conventions.

The new survey is in-line with an American Research Group poll released last week in Colorado that indicated Obama with a narrow two point margin over Romney. The president's edge in both surveys is within the sampling error. President George W. Bush carried Colorado in the 2000 and 2004 elections, with Obama turning the state blue four years ago.

The new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times surveys in all three states indicate that the president has cut into Romney's one-time lead on handling the economy. Pluralities in all three states also say they see Obama's policies as favoring the middle class, while a majority see Romney's proposals as benefiting the wealthy.

According to the surveys, the gender gap is alive and well, with a majority of men in all three states favoring Romney and a majority of women supporting Obama. Romney has the advantage among independent voters in Virginia and Wisconsin, but they are divided between the two candidates in Colorado.

New polls in New Hampshire indicate that the swing state remains a battleground. An American Research Group survey in the Granite State has Obama at 48% among the wider pool of registered voters, with Romney at 46%. According to a WMUR-TV/Granite State poll of likely voters released last week, the president held a five point advantage. The margins in polls were within the surveys sampling errors. Obama won New Hampshire by nine points four years ago, but voters in the state are very familiar with Romney. He was the governor of neighboring Massachusetts and he owns a vacation home in the state.

Nationally, the president also holds a small advantage. A CNN Poll of Polls, which averages the three non-partisan, live operator, surveys of likely voters conducted over the past week has the president at 48% and Romney at 45%.

Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (68 Responses)
  1. truth hurts

    After decades of the Democrats turning the country into the Great Welfare State, they are now insulted by somebody calling it the Great Welfare State! HEY AMERICA!! WAKE UP!!! Look what the Democrats are offering you and YOUR KIDS!!! Even MORE of the same!! I mean can it get any better than counting on the government for everything in your life?!! YEAH BABY!! Sign me up!! I assume they have lined up the long term financing of this life style????

    September 19, 2012 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |
  2. Four and The Door

    But as we saw in 2010, polls and people actually getting out to vote are 2 different things. Republicans are much more enthusiastic and passionate about voting this year. Advantage? Romney/ Ryan.

    September 19, 2012 01:34 pm at 1:34 pm |
  3. Pishin

    The polls say one thing but imo its going to be a landslide victory for Obama.

    September 19, 2012 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  4. Frank Saginaw, MI

    More polls where CNN and others over-sample Democrats to make Obama look better. Look how upset Axelfraud was with Gallup when they showed Romney ahead in the spring. None of these other guys wants the DOJ on them, so they report Obama in the lead, but "within the margin of error", so they can always hedge the bets when they are wrong.

    September 19, 2012 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  5. Al

    Where is your condemnation of Obama's failure to secure our embassies this past year. The facts are in......Obama ignored and was asleep when the embassies were attacked. He KNEW of the other attacks in Bengazzi yet he did nothing that lead to the KILLING of our people. Where are you CNN when the truth comes out. You always are there with the lies and second hand information. Come on CNN if you start telling the REAL truth and stop protecting a president that is a complete failure you might have more people watching your jerk shows!!!!......OR ARE YOU COMPLICIT in this coverup?????????????

    September 19, 2012 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  6. Mike

    Don't read too much into the Wisconsin polls because Wisconsin is extremely liberal. At least the major cities are. THat fact that Romney is even within ten points goes to show how much the state has gotten tired of Obama. I am from there so I know how liberal the place can be, especially Madison where the typical liberal can be seen defacing public property on the steps of the state capital nonetheless. That is what Madison is about. Cry, whine, and stomp your feet because you don't get your way. When you still don't get your way cause destruction and vandlize.
    Just look at OWS, it is the liberal way.

    September 19, 2012 01:38 pm at 1:38 pm |
  7. abnguy

    Usually the conservative canidate out performs the polls on election day. If President Obama has a slight edge he is in trouble for election day. The fallout over the ambasadors death has not fully taken effect, the fact that the state department ordered the US security to not be armed is a huge mistake that cost us a diplomat and a SEAL.

    September 19, 2012 01:41 pm at 1:41 pm |
  8. senfhawk

    I would convert to become a MORMON
    before I would VOTE FOR COMMUNISM

    September 19, 2012 01:45 pm at 1:45 pm |
  9. SokrMom

    One of Romney's One-Percenter friends gave him $10 million for campaign advertising today, so goodbye slight edge.

    September 19, 2012 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  10. Ntrain2k

    At this point in the game a sitting president should have a healthy lead if he wants to be re elected.

    September 19, 2012 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  11. a disgrace but you voted for him

    in just a few more months the american people will put a end to the biggest mistake in the failing countries history and in the process send a clear message that there will NEVER be another disgrace like obama again!!

    September 19, 2012 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
  12. obama is Out Of Touch with reality

    yea, the slight edge as obama moves us closer to a cliff and to marxism and a hitler style of godless government.

    September 19, 2012 01:53 pm at 1:53 pm |
  13. peggy munro

    One of Romney's One-Percenter friends gave him $10 million for campaign advertising today, so goodbye slight edge.
    So I was right all along SokrMom, Romney bought the nomination, now he is trying to buy the Presidency.

    September 19, 2012 01:55 pm at 1:55 pm |
  14. Mc18

    Despite all of his blunders Mitt still is within striking distance of the president. That should very worrisome for the democrats because this should be a an easy win.

    September 19, 2012 02:00 pm at 2:00 pm |
  15. Bookenz

    Obama only as a slight edge? What idiots are voting for Romney.

    September 19, 2012 02:00 pm at 2:00 pm |
  16. Woman In California

    but voters in the state are very familiar with Romney. He was the governor of neighboring Massachusetts and he owns a vacation home in the state.


    Willard has a "vacation home" here to, but he will NEVER carry California so what's your point?

    September 19, 2012 02:02 pm at 2:02 pm |
  17. Karen

    Obama has been President for awhile now. Things are calm. Bin Laden is gone. Khadaffi is gone. The auto industry and the housing industry are recovering. What if Romney says something, and a foreign world leader pushes a button to start a nuclear war, can Romney backtrack on that statement? No, it will be too late. If it's not broke, don't fix it, and the country under Obama is not broke. If Romney were to be elected, which he won't be, we would have to immediately lock up our daughters, and get ready to vacate our homes which will be foreclosed upon after we lose our jobs and they are shipped overseas. Romney will cut everything and put all of the budget into war.

    September 19, 2012 02:06 pm at 2:06 pm |
  18. Frank Saginaw, MI

    $10 mil is proabaly far less than Beyonce, Jay-Z and Letterman gave Obama this week.

    September 19, 2012 02:06 pm at 2:06 pm |
  19. Core republican Values

    I trust our President to do the right thing for ALL Americans and to continue to bring honor, courage, and integrity to the presidency.

    September 19, 2012 02:06 pm at 2:06 pm |
  20. BobG(Milwaukee)

    Do you Democrats run your household finances the same way Congress and Obama does our country's finances? We cannot go on spending money we do not have. Obama does not have a plan how to solve this problem. His latest move on China should have happened his first day. Will he re-distribute your wealth? Or are you going to volunteer to do so?

    Just heard that the attack in Libya is now a terrorist attack and not a spontaneous riot. Just another example of his and his team's incompetence – sending misinformation out to the US public and attempting to cover up his ineptness in foreign affairs.

    If you want to be a third world country vote Obama.

    September 19, 2012 02:07 pm at 2:07 pm |
  21. fred37ify

    Polls are drasticly skewed ! Romney leads by over 20% !

    September 19, 2012 02:08 pm at 2:08 pm |
  22. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    A crazy right wingnut posted that Obama is out of touch with reality. The idiot failed MA governor representing the true GOP thinks our greatest enemy is Russia, that we need 4 more unfunded wars, tax cuts for the wealthy creates jobs, giving seniors vouchers instead of medicare, and eliminating regulations preventing another financial meltdown will make us a stronger country.

    September 19, 2012 02:08 pm at 2:08 pm |
  23. JohnPeel

    @a disgrace but you voted for him.

    The biggest disgrace in US presidential history is without a shadow of a doubt GWB. Get your facts right

    September 19, 2012 02:10 pm at 2:10 pm |
  24. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    I bought a house, but I did not have enough money to pay for it all at once. Thanks to BOA, I was given a loan. To a right wingnut, I was spending money I did not have. Republicans are so fortunate to be able to pay for houses, cars, and boats, up front, with cash.

    September 19, 2012 02:11 pm at 2:11 pm |
  25. VonRam

    The whole argument about over polling Democrats is just bogus. Just another excuse for a campaign that's sinking fast. Over the last couple days the polls have shown the lead continue to grow little by little. Don't be surprise in a couple days when there are new polls out that slight lead will be an overwhelming one, especially in Ohio and Wisconsin.

    September 19, 2012 02:14 pm at 2:14 pm |
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