New Wisconsin poll shows Obama with significant lead
September 19th, 2012
05:01 PM ET
2 years ago

New Wisconsin poll shows Obama with significant lead

(CNN) - A new poll of Wisconsin likely voters released Wednesday afternoon shows President Barack Obama with a double digit lead over Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney there. It stands in contrast to other national and state polls released Tuesday and Wednesday which have shown a close race, some giving Obama a slight advantage over Romney.

The Marquette Law School Poll put Obama 14 percentage points ahead of Romney among likely voters in the Badger State. It also shows a significant change in the Wisconsin race for a U.S. Senate seat.

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The poll, like others released this week, was conducted entirely before secretly recorded clips of Romney speaking at a May fund-raiser consumed the political news cycle. The clips showed Romney describing recipients of government support as dependent and Obama supporters.

A separate poll of likely Wisconsin voters released earlier on Wednesday also showed Obama with an edge, but significantly less of one. His six point advantage over Romney (51% to 45%) in the New York Times/CBS News/Quinnipiac survey was outside of the poll's sampling error but far less than was indicated in the Marquette poll.

The Marquette poll showed Obama gaining five points and Romney losing six, as the two candidates were separated by three points in an August iteration of this survey.

Romney's running mate is Rep. Paul Ryan, a seven-term congressman from the state. In mid-August, the state was moved from leaning in Obama's favor to a toss-up between Obama and Romney on the CNN Electoral Map.

The poll also showed a significant shift in the U.S. Senate race between Rep. Tammy Baldwin and former Gov. Tommy Thompson. It shows Baldwin with a nine point lead over Thompson, 50% to 41% - a reversal of the two candidates' standings in the August survey. In that poll, Thompson was at 50% and Baldwin at 41%.

The professor who led the poll, Charles Franklin, said in a press release announcing the results, "These are both very large moves in just four weeks."

It noted Obama and Baldwin expanded their support among independents, while the support among partisans of their own candidates remained largely unchanged.

- CNN's Paul Steinhauser and Gregory Wallace contributed to this report

Also see:

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- In new tape, Romney casts doubt on peace in Israel

- Obama camp wastes no time highlighting Romney tapes

- Hatch might 'die before his term' ends, opponent charges

- Biden on Romney tape: 'words speak for themselves'


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • President Obama • Tammy Baldwin • Tommy Thompson • Wisconsin
soundoff (79 Responses)
  1. Mungstu Teshome

    Citizen of the United State we all know what kind of person Mr. Mitt Robme is? He is not a person that care for this wonderful country called The United State Of America. A president of a democrat and a republican country would take every one equally, black, white, hispanic asian citizens should be one in the eye of the president. Romney is division, he will cause chaos in this beautiful country. Let us all vote for the great president who put all his effort in the prosperity of this country.

    September 19, 2012 06:00 pm at 6:00 pm |
  2. rrd

    Funny how the only polls that matter here are the ones that favor Obama.

    September 19, 2012 06:06 pm at 6:06 pm |
  3. Steve- Illinois

    A liberal professors poll shows two big changes in Wisconsin. Nevermind the fact Walker just beat the pants off the Dems recall attempt, winning by more than he was originally elected by, and Ryan is from Wisconsin.
    What joke of a poll is this?

    September 19, 2012 06:09 pm at 6:09 pm |
  4. Lisa P

    The Marquette poll was conducted Sept. 13-16, about the time Mitt was proving that he had no diplomatic common sense with regard to the protests in Egypt and Libya. I don't know if that accounts for the difference with the NY Times/CBS/Quinnipiac poll, which may have been taken between gaffs..

    I *am* very mindful that Marquette and other polls had Walker and Barrett neck and neck right up until election day. Happy to hear that Tammy's gaining but I'm taking nothing for granted until the polls close on election day.

    September 19, 2012 06:26 pm at 6:26 pm |
  5. Prism11

    The one true thing I saw out of all these comments..Democrats don't need to get complacent..Mitt Romney is losing, should lose and will lose..but the one way he will win, the one thing he is still counting on is that the Dems..Obama's base won't get out and vote..and that my friends is the way the day after election we will wake up to a former Pres Obama and a President Romney..Vote..Vote..Vote..all these polls and gaffes and everything else do not matter ..at least that's what Mitt is hoping/betting on..people have to Vote!!!

    September 19, 2012 06:26 pm at 6:26 pm |
  6. Jason

    Seriously Republicans/cons, Russian ships used to honor US Vets? Destroying the integrity of a small Buisness owner? Bashing 47% of the US population? What's it going to take for any idiot voting GOP to see the writing on the wall? Dems for sure don't have all the answers, and a lot of crap ones seem to proliferate from the donkeys but, come on.... Seriously? Voting republican is just a reinforcement of your stupidity...

    September 19, 2012 06:27 pm at 6:27 pm |
  7. Marie MD

    News like this is wonderful but we need to make sure we all get out to vote against this duo of lying slimeballs.
    A fourteen year old PUBLIC speech is not going to work. The twit's redistribution plans are for the poor and defnitely the middle class to give the rich more money.
    The lying altar boy, who can't get a crowd if they paid people, are not running to distribute the wealth. YEs, they are except it's to the wealthy. That's why they can't understand what they are actually saying or doing.

    September 19, 2012 06:36 pm at 6:36 pm |
  8. The Other Campaign Strategist @ Amsterdam Ave & 115th

    When the obituary of Romney/Ryans campaign is written, it will show that ?cconnell/ Boehner / Cantor / Ryan`s pledge [starting before Obama was even sworn in] to deny him any legislative victories and to wake up each day working to make him a "1-term President" was the deciding factor. It brings to mind the image of George Wallace standing in the way of students about to enroll in the University of Alabama.

    Americans don`t like that. If Obama had been allowed to implement his policies and HAD FAILED, then the GOP might have had a chance to defeat him with a sound candidate like Jon Huntsmann.

    As it stands, voters see that when he couldn`t be obstructed by the Tea Party Republicans, Obama has been an excellent leader.

    Next time the GOP wants to torpedo the minority or the woman, they`d better not be so blatant about it.

    September 19, 2012 06:43 pm at 6:43 pm |
  9. The Koch brothers picked a loser

    @truth hurts
    -----------------------------------------------------
    The Romney campaign is over and you know it. Just look at the man's face and you can see the panic. Listen to his foolish comments... He's in a death-spiral.

    You too are frantically reaching for some piece of information to strengthen your hopeless position. Here's the problem... Independent voters see through a platform made of false promises, lies and distortions. He has said absolutely nothing and flip-flopped on everything! Smart people know Romney has absolutely no interest in the situation faced by average Americans in this economic and political environment. The right-wing base is stupid enough to ignore the facts but nobody else is willing to alter reality to feed their bigotry. Romney is losing and your delusion won't alter that fact.

    September 19, 2012 06:45 pm at 6:45 pm |
  10. Dan B

    I read that poll. they significantly over polled Dems.

    September 19, 2012 06:57 pm at 6:57 pm |
  11. Craig RB

    The fun part is that all the money from the Kochs, Adelson and other major donors along with the hate from groups such as Rove's isn't going to help Romney one bit.

    September 19, 2012 06:58 pm at 6:58 pm |
  12. John

    Picked Ryan to help in Wisconsin? We need a C.E.O. who makes better decisions than this one.

    September 19, 2012 07:10 pm at 7:10 pm |
  13. Chris from California

    Yep! Robme's goose will be cooked just in time for Thanksgiving!

    September 19, 2012 07:23 pm at 7:23 pm |
  14. Bill

    I think you all are going to be in for a rude awakening the morning after the election, when you wake up to find that your messianic obama is out. The majority of all news outlets are trying their best to sway things in obamas direction, even going so far as too exaggerate their polls. What is it with you people??? Go see the movie 2016. This is the worst president that this nation has ever had (he even makes jimmy carter look kinda good). We need the president to be the number one cheerleader for this great nation, not someone who has such distaste and contempt for the United States. Not someone who goes around the world apoliziging and bowing to foreign leaders. And last but not least, we need someone that is strong and someone who will not back down to any other country. To say it mildly, we need a president with "guts". Romney was not my choice, but I am definitely voting for him. So before you go out bash him and Ryan, why dont you do some research on your on (not just cnn, msnbc, etc.), there is a lot of information out there. Like I said, check out the movie 2016, it is well written and well documented.

    September 19, 2012 07:26 pm at 7:26 pm |
  15. Larry in Houston

    may the best man win – in november. If obama can't "wake up" the 18 to 30 yr. olds by the first week in november somehow, he's Sunk ! 4 states is going to decide it. plain & simple.
    oh well, at least the romney regime will produce drilling jobs, once the lobbyists knock on his door. They will end up drilling thousands of wells & rigs in alaska, not to mention they will end up drilling off of every shore or beach in this country.
    Vote Democrat – 2012 ( for the "working" middle class) ( what's left of us)

    September 19, 2012 07:32 pm at 7:32 pm |
  16. Ancient Texan

    Polls are what ever the pollster want them to be. Just call More Dims than Republicans and very few independents....easy.

    September 19, 2012 07:35 pm at 7:35 pm |
  17. GonzoinHouston

    Polls in individual toss-up states are far more important than polls of the popular vote. The media want a nail-biter finish to boost ratings. Reality, however, is like this: 8 toss-up states with 110 electoral votes between them. Romney needs 78 of those to win, and Obama need 33 to win. Wisconsin has 10. If Wisconsin goes for Obama, he only needs 23 to Mitt's 78 of the remaining 100. Florida alone has 29.

    September 19, 2012 07:41 pm at 7:41 pm |
  18. once upon a horse

    @ Sniffit

    I think you are RIGHT.....these guys hate the "biased" CNN but like to keep coming here posting. I don't like FoxNews so I don't bother to post there at all. I think it also might be an attention seeking thing as well because usually when they make such asinine statements they will get a response and as Mama use to say even negative attention is STILL attention.

    September 19, 2012 07:46 pm at 7:46 pm |
  19. yasmine

    some of you try so hard to defend Romney... you blame everybody but the man himself....
    and then when you same peeps attack the President.. your comments are so personal..

    Tell me... does it bother you seeing a person of color as President? because for some of you.. I think it is just that simple..

    September 19, 2012 07:50 pm at 7:50 pm |
  20. RGD

    It looks like Paul Ryan will have to look for another job after losing both races this election. Mitt Romney is going to have to hire him as his junior partner at Bain Capital or he will be one of 47 percent moochers living off Congress pension, courtesy of taxpayers.

    September 19, 2012 07:52 pm at 7:52 pm |
  21. GI Joe

    Obama Biden 2012

    Early voting starts in about two weeks in some states, three weeks in others. Vote early. If you're turned down there is still time to correct the problem.

    September 19, 2012 07:59 pm at 7:59 pm |
  22. RGD

    That Marquette poll is the same that accurately showed Scott Walker with 6 point lead few days before his recall election earlier this summer. You can debunk this poll all you want to but it is time to put fork in Romney and Ryan's election campaign after all their lies, gaffes and contempt for 99 percent of Americans.

    September 19, 2012 07:59 pm at 7:59 pm |
  23. dontbow

    well maybe Wisconsin likes the governement entitlement programs that are now being offered. first they bowed down to union takeovers and now to obamas pathetic dictatorship.

    September 19, 2012 08:10 pm at 8:10 pm |
  24. Bessy

    @Me IN Houston
    Absolutely right ! People get lazy so we have to just keep reminding them that they have to vote. ESPECIALLY THIS ELECTION. If Romney gets elected our country will never be the same because there will be no middle class and the suffering from senior citizens and the sick will be unbelievable. People have to remember that if their parents lose their SS and MCare they may very well be living with them and depending on them for any health care that they get.

    September 19, 2012 08:17 pm at 8:17 pm |
  25. Ray E. (Georgia)

    No doubt some people still need a baby sitter. Obama wants to Re-Distrubute the wealth. your wealth. You buying?

    September 19, 2012 08:27 pm at 8:27 pm |
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