CNN Poll: Nevada still a close contest
September 20th, 2012
04:00 PM ET
2 years ago

CNN Poll: Nevada still a close contest

(CNN) – One day before Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney campaigns in Nevada, a new poll indicates the state remains very much a battleground in the race for the White House.

According to CNN/ORC International survey (PDF) released Thursday, 49% of likely voters in Nevada say if the election were held today, they'd vote for President Barack Obama, with 46% supporting Romney. The president's three point margin is within the poll's sampling error, suggesting the two candidates are effectively tied in the fight for the Silver State's six electoral votes.

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"Each one gets his core groups," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "For President Obama, that means a lead among women and lower-income voters and an advantage among younger Nevadans. Mitt Romney has the edge among men and among higher-income and older voters."

The survey indicates that independent voters are virtually split, with 45% backing Romney and 43% supporting Obama.

According to the poll, Obama leads Romney 54%-43% in Clark County, which includes Las Vegas. The county contains about two-thirds of the state's population.

President George W. Bush narrowly carried Nevada in his 2004 re-election. But four years ago Obama won the state by 12 points over Sen. John McCain of neighboring Arizona.

This cycle Obama and Romney have each made four swings through Nevada since the start of the general election. Both campaigns continue to put up TV commercials in the state, with each spending nearly $900,000 over the past week to run spots on broadcast TV, according to data provided to its clients by Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), which tracks campaign advertising. Since the unofficial start of the general election in early April, nearly $30 million has been shelled out by the campaigns, the party committees, and the super PACs and other independent groups backing the two candidates, to run ads in Nevada.

The ads are now most likely targeting the small minority of voters who are either undecided or could be persuaded to change their minds. According to the poll, nine out of ten say their mind is made up, with 8% saying they could change their minds.

Obama and Romney are not the only presidential candidates on the ballot in Nevada. When the other third party candidates are included, the president captures 47% of likely voter support, with Romney at 44%, Independent American party candidate Virgil Goode at 4% and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson at 3%.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International from September 14-18, with 1,006 adults, including 864 registered voters and 741 likely voters questioned by telephone. The sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.


Filed under: 2012 • CNN/ORC poll • Mitt Romney • Nevada • President Obama
soundoff (71 Responses)
  1. Spock500

    An interesting poll, but the numbers don't quite reflect the whole story. Yes, Clark County (LV) accounts for 2/3 of the state's registered voters, and Obama (according to this same poll) is up by 10%; yet in the entire state, he is only up by 3%. Hmm...just as with any poll you read, is it sampling error?

    September 20, 2012 05:15 pm at 5:15 pm |
  2. Brian

    The bigger issue is if this country can stop Grover Norquist and Karl Rove from gaining control of our government through fear and intimidation of Repbulicans and Republican candidates. The only way for us to gain back control of our government is by NOT VOTING FOR ANY REPUBLICAN in November..that's for house, senate and president. Vote for anybody else you want, except for a republican. We can show the world that control of our government can't be taken over by a few rogue individuals with radical ideas.

    September 20, 2012 05:17 pm at 5:17 pm |
  3. SafeJourney

    Canch, put down the pipe and pick up a book.

    September 20, 2012 05:21 pm at 5:21 pm |
  4. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    43.
    That's how many points HIGHER President Obama polls when folks are asked who connects with average Americans.
    43.
    The Cubans can keep Romney. The rest of us will take President Obama.
    Pa'lante con Obama!!!!

    September 20, 2012 05:21 pm at 5:21 pm |
  5. Al

    Not looking too good for the community organizer????? Too bad if he has to go back to Chicago and sweep the floors of the local Chick-Fil-A. Eh ????

    September 20, 2012 05:22 pm at 5:22 pm |
  6. VirginiaVoter

    The first President I ever voted for was Reagan in 1984 vs. Mondale. I was raised in a Democrat family and that is what I remain today. However, I could still be persuaded to change my vote based on a candidate's ideas. Romney is a joke and the Republican party has been its own worst enemy. Its been high jacked by whackos. Good luck with that strategy, but American politics actually used to have a civil, more intelligent tone. Not today. No way I ever vote for a Republican (and they all site Reagan) again. Go Obama!

    September 20, 2012 05:23 pm at 5:23 pm |
  7. Lori

    I want a God Fearing President!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    September 20, 2012 05:24 pm at 5:24 pm |
  8. GI Joe

    @Jrd

    You're still living 30 years ago. Delusional much?

    Come on into the 21st century. Romney is NOT reagan, and Obama is NOT Carter. ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

    September 20, 2012 05:26 pm at 5:26 pm |
  9. Dan

    Paul Steinhauser does not have much of a grasp of statistics.

    Hey Paul, do you actually understand what a confidence interval REALLY is? Of course you don't.

    The lead is at the very EDGE of the confidence interval.

    Can CNN, and FOX, and every other news outlet, start getting people who took more than one statistics class in college? Please?

    The limits of the poll suggest what COULD be sampling error, not what LIKELY actually is. A three point lead with a three point margin for error does not suggest they are effectively tied, only that they might be.

    September 20, 2012 05:28 pm at 5:28 pm |
  10. GI Joe

    I want a President that does NOT fear Grover Norquist.

    Obama/Biden 2012

    September 20, 2012 05:28 pm at 5:28 pm |
  11. Name w.bullock

    Let's vote for obama also he will be fail for 4 next year

    September 20, 2012 05:29 pm at 5:29 pm |
  12. GI Joe

    Russell, NC ,

    Talk to your republican representatives in the House that write the rules and spend the money.

    Obama/Biden 2012

    September 20, 2012 05:30 pm at 5:30 pm |
  13. ug

    cnn polss no less...what else do you expect...vote Romney.

    September 20, 2012 05:34 pm at 5:34 pm |
  14. ray

    people, people espcially the right wing crowd, have you ever seen pathological liars like romney and ryan,hycrites like ryan and romney, racists like romney and ryan? be honest . this man will sell his mother souldto get elected and the other hypocrite ryan will sell his sould to be vp. wake up republcans,smell the coffee, omney and ryan are dub and dumber

    September 20, 2012 05:37 pm at 5:37 pm |
  15. Fact

    Huh? – Somebody please elaborate on "Brian says:
    September 20, 2012 05:17 pm at 5:17 pm
    The bigger issue is if this country can stop Grover Norquist and Karl Rove from gaining control of our government through fear and intimidation of Repbulicans and Republican candidates. The only way for us to gain back control of our government is by NOT VOTING FOR ANY REPUBLICAN in November..that’s for house, senate and president. Vote for anybody else you want, except for a republican. We can show the world that control of our government can’t be taken over by a few rogue individuals with radical ideas."

    September 20, 2012 05:38 pm at 5:38 pm |
  16. Veritas Lavinga

    Obama will lose Nevada. The unemployment in that state alone tops the nation and fared better under the command of George W Bush. Also, people there really dislike Harry Reid, who stole the 2010 election there by committing voter fraud.

    September 20, 2012 05:39 pm at 5:39 pm |
  17. pjoe2

    OMG. Univision is AWESOME! Real journalists asking Obama tough intelligent questions & not accepting the same old warmed-over non-answers! Outstanding! I'm going to have to learn Spanish. Bravo!

    September 20, 2012 05:39 pm at 5:39 pm |
  18. jcck

    Please. Nevada is a bump in the road. Obiwon is so far ahead in the electoral college, this race will not even be close and be decided before we get to the Pacific time zone. Check the recent numbers and Obiwon leads 322 to Uncle Mitt's 206, Mitt had never been ahead, and never been close to the required 270. How about CNN start posting the electoral college numbers everyday, and stop inventing "close races"?

    September 20, 2012 05:39 pm at 5:39 pm |
  19. cubano for Obama

    Dominican mama, here's one cubano for obama, adelante.

    September 20, 2012 05:43 pm at 5:43 pm |
  20. Name Rod

    Get ready for Karl Rove dirty tricks. He's a master at it and now he is desperate. This is a truly low life pig of little to no morals.

    September 20, 2012 05:48 pm at 5:48 pm |
  21. bluedogboy

    Mitt can have Nevada. Obama won't need it when he has Fla, Ohio, Va, Wisc, Colo, and Penn in his column.

    The race is over folks. Obama won.

    September 20, 2012 05:49 pm at 5:49 pm |
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