CNN Poll: Nevada still a close contest
September 20th, 2012
04:00 PM ET
2 years ago

CNN Poll: Nevada still a close contest

(CNN) – One day before Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney campaigns in Nevada, a new poll indicates the state remains very much a battleground in the race for the White House.

According to CNN/ORC International survey (PDF) released Thursday, 49% of likely voters in Nevada say if the election were held today, they'd vote for President Barack Obama, with 46% supporting Romney. The president's three point margin is within the poll's sampling error, suggesting the two candidates are effectively tied in the fight for the Silver State's six electoral votes.

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"Each one gets his core groups," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "For President Obama, that means a lead among women and lower-income voters and an advantage among younger Nevadans. Mitt Romney has the edge among men and among higher-income and older voters."

The survey indicates that independent voters are virtually split, with 45% backing Romney and 43% supporting Obama.

According to the poll, Obama leads Romney 54%-43% in Clark County, which includes Las Vegas. The county contains about two-thirds of the state's population.

President George W. Bush narrowly carried Nevada in his 2004 re-election. But four years ago Obama won the state by 12 points over Sen. John McCain of neighboring Arizona.

This cycle Obama and Romney have each made four swings through Nevada since the start of the general election. Both campaigns continue to put up TV commercials in the state, with each spending nearly $900,000 over the past week to run spots on broadcast TV, according to data provided to its clients by Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), which tracks campaign advertising. Since the unofficial start of the general election in early April, nearly $30 million has been shelled out by the campaigns, the party committees, and the super PACs and other independent groups backing the two candidates, to run ads in Nevada.

The ads are now most likely targeting the small minority of voters who are either undecided or could be persuaded to change their minds. According to the poll, nine out of ten say their mind is made up, with 8% saying they could change their minds.

Obama and Romney are not the only presidential candidates on the ballot in Nevada. When the other third party candidates are included, the president captures 47% of likely voter support, with Romney at 44%, Independent American party candidate Virgil Goode at 4% and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson at 3%.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International from September 14-18, with 1,006 adults, including 864 registered voters and 741 likely voters questioned by telephone. The sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.


Filed under: 2012 • CNN/ORC poll • Mitt Romney • Nevada • President Obama
soundoff (71 Responses)
  1. Kathy Heil

    Could you at least attempt to have polls that are accurate. Gary Johnson is on the ballot in Nevada and will take a lot of Romney's votes. Be accurate or don't attempt to tell a story! Gary Johnson 2012 LIVE FREE

    September 20, 2012 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  2. SugarKube

    Now we find out Obama's Libya 9/11 was exactly as Romney said it was. Obama and Hillary apologized to keep the attack from occurring but the attack that killed our Ambassador and SEALS was pre-planned. Obama was on the golf course instead of getting his Intel briefings.

    Failure at home is one thing. Failure in foreign policy demands a change in the white house ASAP.

    September 20, 2012 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  3. Jrd

    Before all you Obama fans get too excited remember this – In a Gallop poll on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Gallup had it Jimmy Carter 47, Ronald Reagan 39. That election two weeks later ended up in a landslide that was so big that Carter conceded before California closed.

    September 20, 2012 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  4. TparTpatriot

    If it wasn't for Vegas (SIN city) Romney would have Nevada by 20 points. It's only because of the immoral vote that Obama is even close.

    September 20, 2012 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  5. Sniffit

    "I wonder if the poll was weighted to account for that?'

    Nope. You need to learn about how sampling is conducted. You don't "weight" polling or surveys like you're suggesting. The idea is to conduct your sampling so that the sample is representative of the whole population. In general, random sampling is considered to be the simplest way to do end up with a representative sample. Sooo, if you have a population of 1M people and pick 1,000 phone numbers randomly, you would expect to get, within a measurable margin of error (that these polls report) a sample that is representative of the population...i.e., X% of the sample is Dems and X% of the whole population is Dems, give or take depending on sample size and some calculations to measure variance, etc. More Dems end up polled because more people self-identify as Dems than people who self-identify as GOPers. Similarly, a random sample of NV's population would get you a percentage of Mormons close to the correct percentage of Mormons in all of NV.

    Go read Wikipedia on it if you're having trouble. Despite all your lying, you seem at least smart enough to follow it and recognize how dumb the arguments sound when people say "why were there more X than Y in the sample...BIAS!!!!"

    September 20, 2012 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
  6. Elle

    Romney wants to continue tax cuts for the rich and reduced regulations for corporations that hurt the middle class.

    September 20, 2012 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
  7. PAUL

    Obama is no Jimmy Carter and Romney wishes he could elevate to the humanitarianism person that is President Jimmy Carter. For the Record, Warren G. Harding was the worst President in History!!

    September 20, 2012 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  8. ST

    @Jrd

    Before all you Obama fans get too excited remember this – In a Gallop poll on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Gallup had it Jimmy Carter 47, Ronald Reagan 39. That election two weeks later ended up in a landslide that was so big that Carter conceded before California closed.
    ----
    We are living in different times now comparing to 30 years ago. Folks are getting information in a matter of a minute. A lot of discussions are taking place in every corner. Don't forget there were no internet and Tweets those days.

    September 20, 2012 04:54 pm at 4:54 pm |
  9. ted

    Wow, Romney is doing swell in the Liberal state of Nevada...

    September 20, 2012 04:54 pm at 4:54 pm |
  10. Dave

    The clown responses here are hilarious! The Romney supporters can twist everything in their favor. And of course they have to put everyone else down in the process. When are they going to learn that they have one little opinion that doesn't mean any more than anyone elses?

    September 20, 2012 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  11. golfnraymond

    Why did we have a recession in 2008 after 8 years of a Republican President? Why did we have the Depression after 12 years of Republican Presidents ( Harding,Coolidge and Hoover)? The private sector was absolutely of no help in the 1930s. Why should I believe the Republicans this time?

    September 20, 2012 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  12. Yup

    If it wasn't for Vegas, Tpar, Nevada would be worth three electoral votes instead of six.

    September 20, 2012 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  13. SafeJourney

    Jrd, different time , different decade and different people. Romeny is no where near a ronald reagan

    September 20, 2012 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  14. Lisa

    Nazi's will vote for nazi's no matter what..The people who vote for Romney are racist nazi's pure and simple..Romney could rape a nun and they would still vote for him..

    September 20, 2012 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  15. pimpson

    Obama is one and done

    September 20, 2012 05:01 pm at 5:01 pm |
  16. Cam Spurgeon

    Cant wait until Nov 7th so thatn we can turn to CNN for some unbiased news. I asked my cable co to put me on vacation rate so I only get local news not the biased cable news.

    September 20, 2012 05:01 pm at 5:01 pm |
  17. Russell, NC ,

    Obama promised that seniors would not have to pay federal income tax if he got elected. I am still waiting.

    September 20, 2012 05:01 pm at 5:01 pm |
  18. @GuileOfTheGods

    I Love how CNN loves to say that if the difference falls within the margin of error, then it's a tie... except thats not how you do polling. Because according to that logic, Obama's lead could be double. SO you guys really need to report these polls accurately and just give the raw data and not try to spin your anti Obama stuff on us.

    September 20, 2012 05:01 pm at 5:01 pm |
  19. SafeJourney

    TparTP, you know whats immoral, its the TP repubs in the senate blocking the Veterans jobs bill yesterday.
    'Shame on your TP repubs

    September 20, 2012 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  20. Laugh

    Very good news for Romney if he's at 46 percent in a CCN/ORC poll. I really wish CNN/ORC would let us take a peak behind the methodology curtain so we could see just how many more democrats are survyed than republicans.

    September 20, 2012 05:03 pm at 5:03 pm |
  21. Travis

    @ Dave
    "The Romney supporters can twist everything in their favor. And of course they have to put everyone else down in the process."

    Same thing could also be said about the Obama supporters, as evident in their posts...

    September 20, 2012 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  22. Spock500

    Earlier, some one suggested that if it were not for Las Vegas, Romney would win the state by 20. Yeah, sure. If it were not for Las Vegas, Romney could keep the state's one electoral vote.

    September 20, 2012 05:06 pm at 5:06 pm |
  23. Nevadan

    Voter Registration edge is what in Nevada.......oh yea plus 60k+ breaking for Democrats......This is not a close race in Nevada.....

    September 20, 2012 05:06 pm at 5:06 pm |
  24. Canchange

    OBAMA the REPO PRESIDENT be prepared for this man ideas socialist communist ( SHARE).work for me I'll repo you and all your belonging.Big government for me The DESTROYER of America; will take down the statue of liberty and put my The REPO president.

    September 20, 2012 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  25. Canchange

    I like Democrats but they are blind with this Obama GOD, they got to be crazy listening to this clown.Lies trillions of times to them and the American people.The whole nation will dethrone you BIG LIAR.thanks

    September 20, 2012 05:15 pm at 5:15 pm |
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