Obama holds advantage in three swing states
September 20th, 2012
09:49 PM ET
2 years ago

Obama holds advantage in three swing states

(CNN) – A poll of voters in the key battleground states of Iowa, Colorado and Wisconsin released Thursday shows President Obama with an advantage over Republican nominee Mitt Romney.

The NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey indicates Obama pulling ahead among likely voters by five points in both Wisconsin and Colorado with 50% to Romney's 45%, a margin that is within the poll's sampling error. But in Iowa the president holds an eight point lead with 50% to Romney's 42%, which is outside the poll's sampling error.

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In this case, 'likely voters' includes those leaning towards a candidate. Among the wider sample of registered voters, Obama's advantage is even greater: 6 points in Colorado, 8 in Wisconsin and 11 in Iowa.

The poll was conducted from Sunday through Wednesday of this past week, partially before and partially after a controversial video leaked of Romney speaking to high-dollar donors at a fund-raising event posted by the liberal-leaning magazine Mother Jones. The video caught fire Monday and Tuesday showing the GOP candidate speaking candidly about a number of issues including claiming that nearly half of Americans would automatically vote for the president because they are dependent on government and consider themselves "victims."

The poll also shows a notable gender gap among likely voters. Among women, Obama leads in all three states by margins ranging from 12% to 18%. Romney leads among men with margins ranging from 2% to 5%.

The poll shows Romney's favorability also taking a hit with voters in Colorado showing 43% favorable to 50% unfavorable; in Iowa, it's 42% to 50%; and in Wisconsin, it's 43% to 46%. Compare those numbers to Obama's favorability ratings in Colorado with 51% favorable and 45% unfavorable; Iowa with 53% to 42%, and Wisconsin with 51% to 44%.

According to the poll, the candidates remain in a dead heat on voters' perception of whether they will help the economy. Wisconsin shows 46% of likely voters picking Romney and 45% choosing Obama. In Colorado, the president has a slight advantage on this issue with 48% compared to Romney's 46%. Obama, however, is up on this issue by four points in Iowa with 47% to Romney's 43%.

And among voters age 60 and older, in Wisconsin Obama leads 48% to Romney's 46%. In Colorado, however, Romney leads 50% to Obama's 45% among seniors, and in Iowa Obama leads by a three point margin: 48% to Romney's 44%.

Other recent polls conducted in these swing states also show the president with an advantage among likely voters. A poll conducted by Marquette University Law School released Wednesday showed the president leading with 54% to Romney's 40% among Wisconsin likely voters. A Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll out Wednesday indicated the battle for Colorado's nine electoral votes is much closer, with 48% of likely voters backing the president and 47% supporting Romney. There have not been recent polls released from Iowa.

Together the three battle ground states have 25 electoral votes.

The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls were conducted September 16 through 18 of 971 likely voters in Colorado with a sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points; 898 likely voters in Iowa with a sampling error or plus or minus 3.3 percentage points; and 968 likely voters in Wisconsin with a sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

CNN's Dana Davidsen and Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Colorado • Iowa • Mitt Romney • President Obama • Wisconsin
soundoff (10 Responses)
  1. Fact

    People are making their choices based on the character of the candidates and in which direction each party will take the country.

    September 20, 2012 10:04 pm at 10:04 pm |
  2. Wanderer

    Lying, flip flopping, and attacking the opponent without facts never work, Mr. Romney. If you are hiding your income tax returns you can’t attack Obama in Economy because those who didn’t pay fair tax are the ones who screwed up the economy and lead the country into debt.

    September 20, 2012 10:19 pm at 10:19 pm |
  3. Donkey Party

    Cue the lame, ignorant, illiterate responses from the knuckle-dragging, inbred, racist right-wingers in 3,2,...

    September 20, 2012 10:32 pm at 10:32 pm |
  4. myviewis

    I think these people voting for Obama have their heads stuck in the sand. I doubt most of them have watched the video and if these video has caused them to vote for Obama then they are as dumb as you can get. How can a video of something so true that thousands of Americans scam the system and live off the system taking monies away from women living in poverty with their children, senior citizens and the sick upset them so much that they would rather vote for a guy who has us near bankruptcy, has no idea what he is doing and the country is stuck.

    Yet Obama's tape from 1998 confirming that he agreed with Redistribution of Wealth ( which in reality it is taking from those that work hard to earn a good living to give to the lazy people that find a million excuses not to work) does not upset these voters. And that fact that unemployment is the highest in history, our debt is $16 trillion plus and he wants to keep spending us into bankruptcy. How ridiculous can these voters be??????

    September 20, 2012 11:06 pm at 11:06 pm |
  5. Al

    It will only get worse for mittens given that 47% factor.

    September 21, 2012 12:18 am at 12:18 am |
  6. John Oboho

    It seems to me,a large section of American population is blindly partisan,or maybe,not well informed.After such gaffes and record number of flip-flops,Romney could still poll almost 50%?The rest of the world must be surprised.

    September 21, 2012 12:36 am at 12:36 am |
  7. Gurgyl

    God is with Obama. He is going to win landslide, and democrats too. That India malnutrition idiot Bobby Jungle is an idiot.

    September 21, 2012 07:11 am at 7:11 am |
  8. Clouds Across The Moon

    I'm making a theory that pre-election polls are ONLY psyching candidates out. Mostly Romney.

    September 21, 2012 07:19 am at 7:19 am |
  9. T'sah From Virginia

    MITTens will get less than 47% of the votes in November – Hmm, that 47% is going to hang around for a while. It will stick with him when he makes his concession speech and he will thank the 47% or less who voted for him... Afterwards, President Obama will continue to help ALL AMERICANS and move this economy FORWARD!!!!!!!!!

    Obama/Biden 2012 – The Only Trusted Way Forward!!

    September 21, 2012 07:46 am at 7:46 am |
  10. Thomas

    Intelligence prevails !

    September 21, 2012 08:27 am at 8:27 am |