Poll: Dead heat in Florida for Romney, Obama
September 24th, 2012
08:29 AM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Dead heat in Florida for Romney, Obama

(CNN) - A new poll released Sunday indicates the presidential race in Florida is razor thin between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.

Forty-eight percent of likely voters back the president, while 47% support the Republican presidential nominee, according to the poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research and commissioned by the Miami Herald and the Tampa Bay Times.

– Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

– Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

The one point margin falls well within the poll's sampling error.

"It's still very much a toss-up. It's a turnout game," Brad Coker, who conducted the survey for Mason-Dixon, told the Tampa Bay Times.

The margin is also slightly smaller than CNN's Poll of Polls in Florida, which averages the Mason Dixon survey along with two other polls conducted of likely voters in the state over the past two weeks. It indicates Obama has 49% support, while Romney has 45%.

The Mason-Dixon poll was conducted Sept. 17-19, the same days that a secretly recorded video emerged of Romney making controversial comments at a Florida fund-raiser in May. The story dominated the news cycle for a large part of the week.

READ MORE: Battleground polls seem to give Obama upper hand over Romney

Florida represents a crucial battleground where both candidates spend extensive amounts of time and money courting the state's 29 electoral votes. Obama and Romney, as well as Romney's running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan, and Obama's wife, Michelle, have all traveled to the Sunshine State within the last 10 days for campaign stops.

CNN's Electoral Map also rates Florida as one of the nine toss-up states in the 2012 presidential race.

With the state's high population of seniors, Medicare amounts to one of the biggest talking points on the trail in Florida. While Romney has been playing defense on his proposal to overhaul the system and offer a subsidy-based option, the new poll Sunday shows the two candidates are fairly even on the issue. Asked who they trust more to keep Medicare financially stable, 49% of voters chose Obama, while 47% picked Romney.

The poll also indicates Obama leading among Hispanic voters, a crucial voting bloc in the state. Perhaps more significant, the president has a double-digit advantage–11 points–over Romney among independent voters–a margin that has increased by six points for Obama since the poll was last conducted in July.

Also of note, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson pulls one percent of support when factored in with Obama and Romney. While the long shot White House hopeful has no chance of winning the presidential election, his turnout could influence the results on Election Day with the race being so close.

Mason-Dixon interviewed 800 likely Florida voters by telephone between September 17 and 19. The sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Along with The Miami Herald and the Tampa Bay Times, the survey was conducted for El Nuevo Herald, Bay News 9 and Central Florida News 13.

- CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Florida • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (32 Responses)
  1. gt

    the south is solid for republican...only florida is in play for obama....

    September 24, 2012 09:58 am at 9:58 am |
  2. DJ

    You're releasing a poll that's a week old. Also, where are the demographics on this?

    September 24, 2012 10:02 am at 10:02 am |
  3. Al-NY,NY

    once people really get to digest Flip's insane comments about "moochers" and he's including basically all the seniors in FL, his numbers will plummet

    September 24, 2012 10:15 am at 10:15 am |
  4. J Mann

    I wish we would get serious about ending the electoral college system. We would have a lot different campaign if they were trying to talk to all of us. It is an antiquated method of counting votes and goes against the one person one vote backbone of democracy.

    September 24, 2012 10:15 am at 10:15 am |
  5. S.B. Stein E.B. NJ

    If Romney wins the state, that makes it a closer race. It doesn't stop Obama from winning other ways though. It is a lot harder for Romney to win without Florida.

    September 24, 2012 10:30 am at 10:30 am |
  6. SMJ

    Flori-DUH elected the criminal Scott as Governor...who would really be surprised if they elected the crook Romney as President? Seniors should be flocking to vote for President Obama. Everyone should be.

    September 24, 2012 10:40 am at 10:40 am |
  7. Randy

    Why would ANY seniors be supporting Mitt Romney at this point? It's getting to the point where it's just bizarre and one can only conclude that they are being kept in the dark with an avalanche of trash GOP propaganda. I picture the scam brochures that used to come in my grandma's mail.

    It really seems that the more real information seniors get on this election, the fewer of them will eventually vote for Mr Romney. I think it's very likely that President Obama is going to carry Florida again this year.

    September 24, 2012 10:48 am at 10:48 am |
1 2