Fresh polls give Obama the advantage in four crucial battlegrounds
September 25th, 2012
11:27 AM ET
2 years ago

Fresh polls give Obama the advantage in four crucial battlegrounds

(CNN) – New polls released in four swing states on Tuesday all indicate President Barack Obama edging out Republican nominee Mitt Romney by four to eight points, including by eight-points in Ohio, where Romney is making several campaign stops Tuesday and Wednesday. In each survey, Obama's advantage is within the poll's sampling error, but each survey indicates the president grabbing at least 50 percent of the likely voters interviewed.

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The fresh batch of polls in Ohio, Florida, Iowa and Nevada - which together account for 59 electoral votes - were released by the Washington Post and American Research Group and were all conducted over the past six days, after the release of secretly recorded clips from a May fund-raiser, in which Romney casts Obama supporters as dependent on government. The story dominated coverage of the race for the White House last week.

As Romney teams up with running mate Rep. Paul Ryan in Ohio Tuesday, a new Washington Post poll indicates he trails President Barack Obama by eight points. According to the survey, 52% of likely voters in the Buckeye State say they support the president, with 44% backing the Republican presidential nominee. Obama's eight point advantage is just within the survey's sampling error.

Ohio and its 18 electoral votes are crucial to winning the White House. In modern times, no Republican has won the presidency without carrying Ohio. It was the state that put President George W. Bush over the top in his 2004 re-election, but four years ago then-Sen. Obama topped Sen. John McCain by five points in Ohio.

The Washington Post poll is the fifth non-partisan, live-operator survey to be conducted in Ohio over the past two weeks. A CNN Poll of Polls that averages all five surveys puts Obama at 50% and Romney at 44% among likely voters. Some partisan polling indicates a closer contest.

The new Washington Post poll indicates that 56% of Ohio registered voters approve of the job Obama's doing as president, with 53% giving him a thumbs up on the job he's doing on the economy. And by a 50%-43% margin, Buckeye State voters say they trust the president rather than Romney to deal with the economy.

"Romney has a good reason to return to the campaign trail in Ohio. The last publicly-released poll in that state which showed him on top was done in early September, before the Democratic convention," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

A new Washington Post survey in Florida indicates a closer contest, with the president at 51% and Romney at 47%, which is within the survey's sampling error. American Research Group is also out Tuesday with a new poll in Florida, which indicates the president at 50% and Romney at 45%, again with the survey's sampling error.

There are now five non-partisan, live-operator, polls conducted in the Sunshine State over the past two weeks. A CNN Poll of Polls that averages all five surveys puts Obama at 49% and Romney at 45% among likely voters. As with Ohio, some partisan polling in Florida has the battle for the state's 29 electoral votes much closer.

Florida is another state that Obama turned from red to blue four years ago, edging out McCain by three points.

American Research Group also has a new poll in Iowa, which indicates the president holding a 51%-44% advantage over Romney among likely voters. The seven point margin is just within the survey's sampling error. According to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released last week, Obama had a 50%-42% lead in the Hawkeye State. President Bush narrowly edged out Sen. John Kerry in Iowa in the 2004 election, but Obama won the state by ten points four years ago. Six electoral votes are at stake in Iowa.

ARG also released a new survey in Nevada that indicates the president with the same 51%-44% advantage. A CNN/ORC International poll released last week indicated a closer contest, with Obama at 49% and Romney at 46% among likely voters. Bush won Nevada in 2004, but Obama carried the state by 12-points four years ago. Six electoral votes are up for grabs in the Silver State.

"In Nevada, you have to go back to April to find a poll that showed more support for Romney than Obama," adds Holland.

While Romney has been pulled off message the past couple of weeks and forced to deal with distractions, Republican strategist and CNN contributor Alex Castellanos says Romney has already proved this cycle that he can make a comeback.

"Romney has proven resilient throughout this campaign," said Castellanos, a senior media adviser to Romney's 2008 campaign. "Now he's being tested again. He has to show voters he has presidential strength, the capacity to get back on his feet after being knocked down."

But the clock's ticking. Tuesday marks six weeks until Election Day, and early voting underway already in a handful of states.

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Filed under: 2012 • CNN Poll of polls • Florida • Iowa • Mitt Romney • Nevada • Ohio • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (39 Responses)
  1. Orchid333

    I really think it's going to be no contest this November. While there are a good handful of ever-faithful Romney supporters, it's still apparent that the Republican party as a whole just doesn't "love" him enough to get independents to sway to their side. Add that to Romney's constant flip-flopping and alienation of women and minorities... yeah, not looking good in his camp. I don't expect to see these numbers turn in favor of the GOP anytime before the election.

    September 25, 2012 11:37 am at 11:37 am |
  2. luke,az

    Gov Romney is NOT presidential material. Everyone knows it,his party knows it. You'll soon see Romney's wealthy donors heading for the exits.

    September 25, 2012 11:46 am at 11:46 am |
  3. Kansas Farmer

    As one of the 47% at one point in my life, now doing much better, I don't begrudge anyone a hand up. That's what this boils down to and that's why Romney is falling off the map in hard-luck states like Ohio.

    September 25, 2012 11:46 am at 11:46 am |
  4. once upon a horse

    not ready to write off Romney yet and it would be a big mistake to do so......WHY? Because of Karl Rove, the Koch Brothers, the Vegas billionaire, new voting laws trying to be in effect....and yes the debates might be a game changer. The GOP will do ANYTHING to get the White House back in 2013 and if Romney is still trailing in the polls by then look for the "birther" stuff, the "he's not one of us" stuff and lines like "Obama is going to take your guns away" to appear to try and get that last undecided voter to go GOP.

    September 25, 2012 11:48 am at 11:48 am |
  5. joe

    that's right ...four more years!!!!!!!

    September 25, 2012 11:48 am at 11:48 am |
  6. beevee

    Simply stated – the writing is on the wall for Mr. Romney about the outcome of the election.

    September 25, 2012 11:52 am at 11:52 am |
  7. Silence DoGood

    If you are a progressive, you may want to consider voting Green this time (and in local elections too) to send a message to the DNC that you are not happy with liberal-lite.

    September 25, 2012 12:01 pm at 12:01 pm |
  8. DC from NJ

    Nothing can save Romney from himself – he is who he is, and the American people are not buying it. It's going to be quite enjoyable to watch the Republican's whine for the next 4 years. Hopefully, they will put their partisanship aside and work with Obama to help the country.

    September 25, 2012 12:02 pm at 12:02 pm |
  9. Rick McDaniel

    It is hard to lose, when the media withholds truth, covers up facts, and slants everything one way.

    The Democratic Party ownership of the media, has made politics in America, nothing but propaganda.

    September 25, 2012 12:04 pm at 12:04 pm |
  10. Rudy NYC

    Obama2012 has siome kind of offensive line. They're blowing Romney2012 away on every snap.

    September 25, 2012 12:07 pm at 12:07 pm |
  11. ST

    Though am happy with polls, BUT they are not going to work out if people will not turn out. Voters should determine to make the polls come true. The Obama campaign should concentrate on voter turn-out right from now til Nov. 6.

    September 25, 2012 12:09 pm at 12:09 pm |
  12. Michael

    President Obama must win! Here is another reality! Repuglican policies blew up the ship,the economy looked like the Titanic sinking! President Obama repaired it, got it back sailing again, only, its not traveling as fast, needing some cooperation from those who really are responsible to work undo the damage done. With cooperation this country would be back to speed, but those responsible are acting like anchors to our economic recovery refusing to help the victims of their heartless, greedy, selfish special interest, extremist ideology, and disastrous policies!

    September 25, 2012 12:10 pm at 12:10 pm |
  13. demwit

    The dumbing down of Americ pays off in BIG political benefits..., for awhile.

    September 25, 2012 12:11 pm at 12:11 pm |
  14. Donkey Party

    SilenceDoGood – Totally idiotic comment. You go ahead and vote for Roseanne Barr, I'm sticking with the Democrats. A vote for the Green Party is basically a vote for Romney. Think before you comment, or do something good and remain silent.

    September 25, 2012 12:12 pm at 12:12 pm |
  15. NEVER to VOTE REPUBLICAN again

    Vote OBAMA! My husband and I are self employed artist and our incomes were trashed in 2009. With each year of OBAMA being in office our incomes have grown. We to have needed a hand up in the past. It was a scary time but thank god it was there for the short time it helped us out. No, we don't have parents with deep pockets to borrow from like the Romney solution! This country is moving forward because of the wonderful job the POTUS has done!
    Vote all the Repub/tea party out!

    September 25, 2012 12:13 pm at 12:13 pm |
  16. NOTADEMOCRAT

    America apparenyly perfers a president who lets the state run media speak for him..

    September 25, 2012 12:15 pm at 12:15 pm |
  17. FedUp

    I have participated in a few phone polls recently. I love to skew the results! The only poll that matters is on election day.

    September 25, 2012 12:15 pm at 12:15 pm |
  18. Publius Novus

    I would not write Romney off just yet. There is no way to evaluate the effect the GOP voter suppression laws are going to have. Many of those "likely voters" who support the President are going to find they cannot vote on November 6. And then there are the idi0ts like "Silence DoGood" abive, who are suggesting that progressives vote Green to "send a message" to the DNC. Yes, that worked really well in 2000. Thanks Ralph. That 3% you siphoned off from Gore in Florida really advanced the progressive agenda.

    September 25, 2012 12:16 pm at 12:16 pm |
  19. Darryl Miller, Arlington Texas

    My Fellow Americans, our choice is clear do we want a calm leader or a snake oil salesman who who outsource America's iJobs, Invest in China internet company who's purpose is to break in US Companies computers to steal intellectual property. Yes, Gov. Romney wants to destroy American from the inside and out.. This draft dodger and coward is not a leader and can never be president.

    September 25, 2012 12:17 pm at 12:17 pm |
  20. jpmichigan

    The media has done a great injustice to the American people, by picking and choosng whom they perfer as their choice for Presidency. Not only an injustice of actual facts, but indangering their crediblity of being able to be fair. This why many Americans don't believe or have faith in their reporting and often take the time to check of facts on their own.

    September 25, 2012 12:19 pm at 12:19 pm |
  21. Sonia

    Well, Well, Well. I guess Romney is done

    September 25, 2012 12:19 pm at 12:19 pm |
  22. Indy

    Romney can't get it through his thick skull that lying and mis quoting the President of the United States everyday is not going to win you any trust with voters.Mitts thinks because he is rich we will all believe his lies and everyone is sick to death of his daily mis quotes that Romney throws out there because he has no specifics of his own

    September 25, 2012 12:21 pm at 12:21 pm |
  23. Dave

    I don't know why they bother us with this. The polls are always skewed and actual election day figures do not match what they try to sell the country.

    September 25, 2012 12:22 pm at 12:22 pm |
  24. Malory Archer

    FedUp

    I have participated in a few phone polls recently. I love to skew the results!

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Me too!!! As IF mittens would get my vote!

    September 25, 2012 12:23 pm at 12:23 pm |
  25. Jake

    Mitt can roll down the windows on his bus, for each state he rides through--so he can take a badly needed "breather."

    September 25, 2012 12:24 pm at 12:24 pm |
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