Polls: Obama leads in New Hampshire; tight race in Nevada, North Carolina
September 27th, 2012
08:33 PM ET
2 years ago

Polls: Obama leads in New Hampshire; tight race in Nevada, North Carolina

(CNN) - New polls of likely voters in three battleground states show President Barack Obama with a lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, and with a slight advantage in Nevada and North Carolina.

The NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal polls show Obama 7 points ahead of Romney in New Hampshire, 51% to 44%, a difference outside of the poll's sampling error of 3.1 percentage points.

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In Nevada and North Carolina, Obama's advantage was two points and within the sampling error. Obama had 49% to Romney's 47% in Nevada, and 48% to Romney's 46% in North Carolina.

Obama won all three states in 2008.

Two other recent surveys of New Hampshire voters have found a close race. A WMUR Granite State Poll which contacted likely voters during and after the Democratic National Convention earlier this month found Obama at 45% and Romney at 40% with a sampling error of plus or minus four points. An American Research Group sampling of registered voters found the candidates locked up, separated by only two points.

The NBC poll released Thursday found 4% were undecided in their vote and 86% strongly supported the candidate they had identified. The earlier WMUR survey showed 15% were undecided or favoring a non-major candidate.

Both tickets have dispatched their vice presidential candidates and surrogates to the Granite State recently. Vice President Joe Biden campaigned there Friday and Saturday, and GOP vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan plans to visit the state this Saturday. The Romney campaign has also sent surrogates in Sen. John McCain of Arizona and Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey.

The NBC poll of Nevada likely voters is in keeping with other polls there showing a close race. The CNN/ORC International poll conducted from September 14-18 showed Obama with a three point advantage over Romney, 49% to 46%, and the ARG poll conducted September 20-23 showed Obama at 51% and Romney at 44%. Both polls are within their respective sampling errors.

Nevada voters, like those in New Hampshire and North Carolina, are split on who would best handle the economy, and were also split on who best would handle foreign policy. Likely voters in New Hampshire and North Carolina gave an edge on foreign policy to Obama.

The poll also found a tight race between the states two candidates for a U.S. Senate seat out of the state, although the incumbent had the advantage. Sen. Dean Heller, at 49% and a Republican, will face Rep. Shelley Berkley, at 43% and a Democrat, in a debate Thursday night.

Likely voters in Nevada were the only amongst the three where more planned to or already had voted ahead of Election Day. Nevada and North Carolina both allow early in-person voting, while New Hampshire allows voters to cast absentee ballots early by mail.

Romney was the most recent candidate to campaign in the Silver State when he attended a rally in Las Vegas on Friday.

The North Carolina survey was in keeping with other polls there showing a tight race. The state, like New Hampshire and Nevada, is rated a toss-up on the CNN Electoral Map.

The Democratic National Convention was held in Charlotte, North Carolina, in September and of the three included in Thursday's poll, North Carolina was the closest in the 2008 election. Obama won the state by only 14,000 votes of the over 4.2 million ballots cast.

Obama's job-approval rating approached the halfway mark in the three states, and touched 50% in New Hampshire. In North Carolina 48% approved of his job as president, and in Nevada, 47% approved. Just over half of the likely voters in each of the three states believed the country was heading in the wrong direction.

The three polls each have a sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points among likely voters and were conducted between September 23 and 25.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Nevada • New Hampshire • North Carolina • President Obama
soundoff (55 Responses)
  1. omgamike

    The writing is on the wall and I am beginning to hear that familiar lady start to sing. Yes, I know things can change overnight, but the trends are starting to form. Start following fivethirtyeight.com to keep on top of things.

    September 28, 2012 07:28 am at 7:28 am |
  2. jnpa

    It's strange that the GOP acknowledges that voters already believe by a 25-point margin that President Obama is going to win at least the first debate, yet they argue the accuracy of the other polls that say Obama is leading Romney.

    September 28, 2012 07:28 am at 7:28 am |
  3. Jake

    Now Romney tells everyone not to raise their hopes in the debates. He doesn't get it....America never raised any hopes with him.

    September 28, 2012 07:36 am at 7:36 am |
  4. jon

    Romney is toast. He has no chance. The numbers don't add up, it's called Arithmetic.

    September 28, 2012 07:41 am at 7:41 am |
  5. Jay

    And exactly what was the break down between Rs, Ds &Is in this poll? +10 for the Ds as usual?

    September 28, 2012 07:47 am at 7:47 am |
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