Polls: Obama leads in New Hampshire; tight race in Nevada, North Carolina
September 27th, 2012
08:33 PM ET
2 years ago

Polls: Obama leads in New Hampshire; tight race in Nevada, North Carolina

(CNN) - New polls of likely voters in three battleground states show President Barack Obama with a lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, and with a slight advantage in Nevada and North Carolina.

The NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal polls show Obama 7 points ahead of Romney in New Hampshire, 51% to 44%, a difference outside of the poll's sampling error of 3.1 percentage points.

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In Nevada and North Carolina, Obama's advantage was two points and within the sampling error. Obama had 49% to Romney's 47% in Nevada, and 48% to Romney's 46% in North Carolina.

Obama won all three states in 2008.

Two other recent surveys of New Hampshire voters have found a close race. A WMUR Granite State Poll which contacted likely voters during and after the Democratic National Convention earlier this month found Obama at 45% and Romney at 40% with a sampling error of plus or minus four points. An American Research Group sampling of registered voters found the candidates locked up, separated by only two points.

The NBC poll released Thursday found 4% were undecided in their vote and 86% strongly supported the candidate they had identified. The earlier WMUR survey showed 15% were undecided or favoring a non-major candidate.

Both tickets have dispatched their vice presidential candidates and surrogates to the Granite State recently. Vice President Joe Biden campaigned there Friday and Saturday, and GOP vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan plans to visit the state this Saturday. The Romney campaign has also sent surrogates in Sen. John McCain of Arizona and Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey.

The NBC poll of Nevada likely voters is in keeping with other polls there showing a close race. The CNN/ORC International poll conducted from September 14-18 showed Obama with a three point advantage over Romney, 49% to 46%, and the ARG poll conducted September 20-23 showed Obama at 51% and Romney at 44%. Both polls are within their respective sampling errors.

Nevada voters, like those in New Hampshire and North Carolina, are split on who would best handle the economy, and were also split on who best would handle foreign policy. Likely voters in New Hampshire and North Carolina gave an edge on foreign policy to Obama.

The poll also found a tight race between the states two candidates for a U.S. Senate seat out of the state, although the incumbent had the advantage. Sen. Dean Heller, at 49% and a Republican, will face Rep. Shelley Berkley, at 43% and a Democrat, in a debate Thursday night.

Likely voters in Nevada were the only amongst the three where more planned to or already had voted ahead of Election Day. Nevada and North Carolina both allow early in-person voting, while New Hampshire allows voters to cast absentee ballots early by mail.

Romney was the most recent candidate to campaign in the Silver State when he attended a rally in Las Vegas on Friday.

The North Carolina survey was in keeping with other polls there showing a tight race. The state, like New Hampshire and Nevada, is rated a toss-up on the CNN Electoral Map.

The Democratic National Convention was held in Charlotte, North Carolina, in September and of the three included in Thursday's poll, North Carolina was the closest in the 2008 election. Obama won the state by only 14,000 votes of the over 4.2 million ballots cast.

Obama's job-approval rating approached the halfway mark in the three states, and touched 50% in New Hampshire. In North Carolina 48% approved of his job as president, and in Nevada, 47% approved. Just over half of the likely voters in each of the three states believed the country was heading in the wrong direction.

The three polls each have a sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points among likely voters and were conducted between September 23 and 25.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Nevada • New Hampshire • North Carolina • President Obama
soundoff (55 Responses)
  1. Ken

    $16,000,000,000,000 (that is $16 Trillion) in debt we can't pay back, a looming monumental tax increase, the Middle East in flames, and a terrriorist attack resulting in a dead american embassador and three other americans, unemployment above 8% for four years, $500,000,000 (that is $500 Million) lost on Solindra and other Obama contributors,sales of automatic weapons to Mexican drug gangs that are use the against our own border patrol and a President who would rather be on Jay Leno than talk to the prime minister of Isreal yet Obama has an approval rating polling above 50%. Has the population of this country lost their collective minds! What are they thinking!! Could it be Americans are just really STUPID!

    September 27, 2012 08:51 pm at 8:51 pm |
  2. Pedro!

    Still not time to pop-up the champaign remember my friend Jimmy Carter was leading before the humiliations!!

    September 27, 2012 08:58 pm at 8:58 pm |
  3. Woman In California

    Polls, polls, polls. The only poll I want to hear about is the one on November 6, 2012, when I hear just how many Americans really turned out to actually VOTE. I hope the crowds of people going to see the president and vice president treally turn out and show their support. Let's go voters!

    Obama/Biden 2012

    September 27, 2012 09:12 pm at 9:12 pm |
  4. Katahdin

    The American people have figured it out: President Obama is simply a better man than Mitt Romney. President Obama is calm and steady, and does what he believes to be right, regardless of whether it benefits himself politically.
    Mitt Romney, on the other hand, is shrill and frantic, jerking first in one direction then the other in search of the magic formula for being all things to all people. Mitt, there is no magic to President Obama's success. He is principled. He knows who he is. You can't fake that.

    September 27, 2012 09:20 pm at 9:20 pm |
  5. Republican grandma

    I don't care what poll said! I will not vote for a Mormon! Not now! Not ever!!

    September 27, 2012 09:28 pm at 9:28 pm |
  6. Stephen Bibb

    Well since I am the only one in here. Let me say this. Thank you President Obama for standing strong in what you believe and for the American people. We The People are behind you and voting for you and recognize you CARE!!!

    September 27, 2012 09:33 pm at 9:33 pm |
  7. Tony

    Adolph hitler and obama are in the same boat. both great orators won the election by a record breaking margin and doing a lot of damage

    September 27, 2012 09:50 pm at 9:50 pm |
  8. Larry L

    Folks in the swing are not not like those in the "red" states. The independent voters don't want a candidate who offers absolutely no specifics on how he plans to pay for low taxes for the rich, Romneycare (same as Obamacare), a huge defense budget (more than the Pentagon wants), cheap gas, and 12 million new jobs. They aren't the under-educated bigots who hate the government of the United States and work towards it's destruction. They are instead angry about the obstructionism of the Republican Party and the control given to right-wing extremists. They will support the President.

    September 27, 2012 10:21 pm at 10:21 pm |
  9. Bob Sletten

    These polls have to big of a sampling of democrats. They think that between 8 and 10 % more democrats are going to vote than republicans. Doubt it. The republicans are more enthusiastic this year than dems.

    September 27, 2012 10:47 pm at 10:47 pm |
  10. Bob Sletten

    Especially North Carolina that will go republican.

    September 27, 2012 10:50 pm at 10:50 pm |
  11. Run Mitt Run

    It Nevada, Romney was overheard saying the the bottom 99% were just a bunch of lazy freeloaders who need to work harder to build my car elevators.

    September 27, 2012 11:09 pm at 11:09 pm |
  12. DB

    Romney is finished, unless Obama should happen to throw up on the podium during the debates.

    September 27, 2012 11:31 pm at 11:31 pm |
  13. clevercandi

    Bring on the debates!!

    September 27, 2012 11:41 pm at 11:41 pm |
  14. Raebo

    Romney could give the black takers 5 thousand dollars a month, free phones, free transportation, free medicare, let them live for free in rich white peoples houses and a pound of weed a month and he would still not get voted in.

    September 27, 2012 11:58 pm at 11:58 pm |
  15. Billy Pilgrim

    Could the contrast be any greater between Romney, who looted American companies and shipped their jobs overseas, only pays taxes at a 13% rate, stashes his money in the Cayman Islands to avoid U.S. taxes, and President Obama who saved GM and created 32 straight months of private sector job growth?

    Obama is an economic patriot.

    Romney is an economic traitor.

    September 28, 2012 12:22 am at 12:22 am |
  16. G.B.

    Florida prosecutors launched an investigation into possible fraud in voter registration forms.

    Working through state parties, the RNC has sent more than $3.1 million this year to Strategic Allied Consulting, a company formed in June by Nathan Sproul, an Arizona voting consultant. Sproul has operated other firms that have been accused in past elections of improprieties designed to help Republican candidates, including dumping registration forms filled out by Democrats.

    Looks like the Radical Right is hard at work.

    September 28, 2012 12:46 am at 12:46 am |
  17. Fortinbras

    How some people can find that Obama is the better choice on foreign policy, find both to be equal on many other issues economy included, yet choose Romney is beyond. Inferior foreign policy is inferior economic policy.

    September 28, 2012 12:56 am at 12:56 am |
  18. Fortinbras

    And dont get too excited about Nevada. Romney has never led against Obama in that state. I doubt he ever will at this point.

    September 28, 2012 01:04 am at 1:04 am |
  19. iaguy

    Wait, so the news is that Obama leads in all three of these battleground states, including North Carolina?!? Jeesh, bury the lede why don't ya.

    September 28, 2012 01:06 am at 1:06 am |
  20. visitorscoop

    Romney realizes he is really ridiculusly reducing the risk of a man with magic underwear to being president.

    September 28, 2012 01:06 am at 1:06 am |
  21. bspurloc

    silly polls... they dont matter if Obama is ahead... ARITHMETIC doesnt work like that

    September 28, 2012 01:25 am at 1:25 am |
  22. Fact

    Awesome!

    September 28, 2012 01:26 am at 1:26 am |
  23. Fact

    Maybe some people in Romney's 47% grouping are a offended by his remarks.

    September 28, 2012 01:28 am at 1:28 am |
  24. Bye-Bye Mitt

    Kiss your lame campaign goodbye!!!

    September 28, 2012 02:18 am at 2:18 am |
  25. The Left Wing

    The Romney camp has been trying to lower expectations in the debates. Is that really necessary? With gaffe after gaffe and declining poll numbers, you'd think expectations would already be low. Oh, but I forgot... Romney thought the 47% remark was good. Also, Republicans think all the polls are wrong. Yeah Romney, you'd better start saying the President is a better speaker, that will lower expectations. You could tell us how you impressed our ally, the British, by telling them they weren't ready for the Olympics on the eve of the Olympics. That will lower expectations.

    September 28, 2012 02:22 am at 2:22 am |
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