Polls: Obama leads in New Hampshire; tight race in Nevada, North Carolina
September 27th, 2012
08:33 PM ET
2 years ago

Polls: Obama leads in New Hampshire; tight race in Nevada, North Carolina

(CNN) - New polls of likely voters in three battleground states show President Barack Obama with a lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, and with a slight advantage in Nevada and North Carolina.

The NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal polls show Obama 7 points ahead of Romney in New Hampshire, 51% to 44%, a difference outside of the poll's sampling error of 3.1 percentage points.

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In Nevada and North Carolina, Obama's advantage was two points and within the sampling error. Obama had 49% to Romney's 47% in Nevada, and 48% to Romney's 46% in North Carolina.

Obama won all three states in 2008.

Two other recent surveys of New Hampshire voters have found a close race. A WMUR Granite State Poll which contacted likely voters during and after the Democratic National Convention earlier this month found Obama at 45% and Romney at 40% with a sampling error of plus or minus four points. An American Research Group sampling of registered voters found the candidates locked up, separated by only two points.

The NBC poll released Thursday found 4% were undecided in their vote and 86% strongly supported the candidate they had identified. The earlier WMUR survey showed 15% were undecided or favoring a non-major candidate.

Both tickets have dispatched their vice presidential candidates and surrogates to the Granite State recently. Vice President Joe Biden campaigned there Friday and Saturday, and GOP vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan plans to visit the state this Saturday. The Romney campaign has also sent surrogates in Sen. John McCain of Arizona and Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey.

The NBC poll of Nevada likely voters is in keeping with other polls there showing a close race. The CNN/ORC International poll conducted from September 14-18 showed Obama with a three point advantage over Romney, 49% to 46%, and the ARG poll conducted September 20-23 showed Obama at 51% and Romney at 44%. Both polls are within their respective sampling errors.

Nevada voters, like those in New Hampshire and North Carolina, are split on who would best handle the economy, and were also split on who best would handle foreign policy. Likely voters in New Hampshire and North Carolina gave an edge on foreign policy to Obama.

The poll also found a tight race between the states two candidates for a U.S. Senate seat out of the state, although the incumbent had the advantage. Sen. Dean Heller, at 49% and a Republican, will face Rep. Shelley Berkley, at 43% and a Democrat, in a debate Thursday night.

Likely voters in Nevada were the only amongst the three where more planned to or already had voted ahead of Election Day. Nevada and North Carolina both allow early in-person voting, while New Hampshire allows voters to cast absentee ballots early by mail.

Romney was the most recent candidate to campaign in the Silver State when he attended a rally in Las Vegas on Friday.

The North Carolina survey was in keeping with other polls there showing a tight race. The state, like New Hampshire and Nevada, is rated a toss-up on the CNN Electoral Map.

The Democratic National Convention was held in Charlotte, North Carolina, in September and of the three included in Thursday's poll, North Carolina was the closest in the 2008 election. Obama won the state by only 14,000 votes of the over 4.2 million ballots cast.

Obama's job-approval rating approached the halfway mark in the three states, and touched 50% in New Hampshire. In North Carolina 48% approved of his job as president, and in Nevada, 47% approved. Just over half of the likely voters in each of the three states believed the country was heading in the wrong direction.

The three polls each have a sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points among likely voters and were conducted between September 23 and 25.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Nevada • New Hampshire • North Carolina • President Obama
soundoff (55 Responses)
  1. jaimie

    Romney ....... No honesty no integrity

    September 28, 2012 02:22 am at 2:22 am |
  2. jaimie

    Romney and Ryan ......... Laurel and Hardy of the 21st century

    September 28, 2012 02:22 am at 2:22 am |
  3. jaimie

    Romneyhood ....... Give to the Rich take from the poor

    September 28, 2012 02:23 am at 2:23 am |
  4. Me 3

    Romney has the right strategy. Do more fundraising instead of appearances. Make millions by suckering rich GOP donors to stash overseas before his name falls off the charts like Palin.

    September 28, 2012 03:41 am at 3:41 am |
  5. annie

    did'nt hillary win newe hampshire in 'o8 i recall.

    September 28, 2012 03:45 am at 3:45 am |
  6. 200 TON HAMMER

    wow newhampshire is wakeing up just like
    Ohio mitt romney secret I tell you later plans is back fireing,corporation are people my friends talks not working,let detroit go bankrupt talks not working mitt romney,the 47% poor people you trash talked about at a $50,000 dallor a plate dinner talks want work mitt romney,and you chooseing a entry level millionaire was a shocked mitt romney,paul ryan is really poor millionaire at $4,000,000 dallors cash in the bank,i guess you felt sorry for the young lad mitt romney

    September 28, 2012 04:04 am at 4:04 am |
  7. Consequence

    Romney, a tireless worker with a strong career and educational background and proven record of success, is a superb candidate against the silver tongued Barack Obama. There are issues of trust and competence to be considered and, more crucially, what world are we creating for our children and grandchildren? With a stalling economy, high unemployment and debts like never before in our history, i would hire Romney in a New York minute over the smooth talking Obama. Obama's campaign, based on malicious malignment of Romney's hard earned successes and multiple character assasinations of his honesty, his family and his faith, has produced an ugly electorate with distorted fears and misdirected expectations. Strong thinking voters with a long term concern about this country cannot conclude that more of Obama is a good thing for us. I wish Romney well in getting his message across - but, more importantly, listening voters capable of making the right choice.

    September 28, 2012 04:40 am at 4:40 am |
  8. Larry G

    I wonder if reality is starting to finally penetrate the Republican alternative-universe that their one-sided stance on everything is not a One-Size-Fits-All for the country. Even if he wins the debates, Down by 23.5 points in the state he ran as Governor by the people who know him best, ought to give a clue as to how he'd run the rest of the country. Reagan won California, the state he was Governor by 17 points in the big dance, so the arguement that Mass is a democratic state is moot.

    September 28, 2012 04:42 am at 4:42 am |
  9. petena

    Good luck Mr. President and God bless you and your lovely family. You have earned that gray hair. Obama/Biden 2012. We are with you all the way.

    September 28, 2012 05:26 am at 5:26 am |
  10. Mighty Mighty Mittens

    It is looking more and more like as people pay attention President Obama is going to in all but the 191 EC votes that mitt has in the bag from those "taker" red states. Those states full of people who are either resentful of, or unaware of, the fact that their states are the ones dependant on federal money for their continued existence.

    September 28, 2012 05:38 am at 5:38 am |
  11. Aacon S.

    Those polls are odd because I went to NBC and took a poll to see what the results would be ' If the election were held today ' and it came back Romney winning every state in the union by a HUGE margin,except for DC.I voted Obama.Odd results given what this story says.

    September 28, 2012 05:43 am at 5:43 am |
  12. r

    Latest news! The GOP is lowering expectations in the outcome of the debates now for Mitt. Guess now that gives the GOP pundits to say "oh, how good he looked and how well he did, because we really did not expect much.." It is obvious we will be far better off as Americans with jobs increasing steady, housing prices going up, stock market has been good, foreign nations are speaking to us and assisting too, our American fighting men are coming home after the longest war in our history. People issues are, i.e. individual freedoms and choices and being assured, credit card companies are being questioned and consumer protection is being emphasized. North Carolinians, Nevadans, New Hampshire, Ohio....nice to see us all pulling together to keep us moving forward with a strong President in the White House who know which way the country should be going here and in the world, and is working hard to keep the momentum going what a great four years we have had seeing him at work, and looking forward to another four years of progress for all of us working people.

    September 28, 2012 05:46 am at 5:46 am |
  13. gwats

    Romney is not convincing anyone not already solidly in his corner that he can do the job. Too many nightmares of the Ghosts of the Bush crime Family floating around out there.

    September 28, 2012 05:58 am at 5:58 am |
  14. MrRickinNH

    People are starting to realize what it would be like under a GOP administration... Increase in corporate fraud, environmental regulations reduced, women's rights trampled, back to being world cops with increases in defense spending, and the shrinking middle class would further shrink!

    September 28, 2012 06:09 am at 6:09 am |
  15. whatever

    Why is Gary Johnson not included in these polls? Sheep.

    September 28, 2012 06:18 am at 6:18 am |
  16. ThinkSustain

    Wow, more manipulating polls. Watch Bishop E.W. Jackson Message on Youtube. Free at last – Pass it on.

    September 28, 2012 06:33 am at 6:33 am |
  17. Kerr Mudgeon

    Keeping NC Blue! Time to get out the vote – take nothing for granted; early voting begins 10/18 and ends 11/3 in NC – get to the polls, Tar Heels – Obama/Biden 2012

    September 28, 2012 06:38 am at 6:38 am |
  18. don edman

    Mitt and his close circle of supporters plan to "harvest" the largest acquisition they've ever made – the USA. It's becoming obvious even to those who would vote for him just to deny Obama a second term. If you think Chaney simply got promoted from CEO of Haliburton to VP but retained his corporate duties, that was nothing compared to what Mitt would have done...

    September 28, 2012 06:57 am at 6:57 am |
  19. Gurgyl

    North Carolina, do not be an IDIOTIC. 21st century it is. Just know. Color does not matter. No one is going to care about it. Just vote straight DEMOCTATIC TICKET AND OBAMA12. I do not misguide nor mislead. Listen to this educated. Now this nation is going in right direction. God bless us all. Obama12.

    September 28, 2012 06:58 am at 6:58 am |
  20. Mitz

    Not sure who to believe. I participated in a poll conducted by Newsmax.com, "If the elections were today, who would you vote for". Romney had over 1million votes, while Obama had around 400,000.

    September 28, 2012 06:58 am at 6:58 am |
  21. Yosemite Sam

    The party of no are their own worst enemy. By refusing to listen to the voters, they fail and are rapidly losing all relevance.

    September 28, 2012 07:04 am at 7:04 am |
  22. Andrea Mason

    One can just ask the " Real Referees" whether just one point is sufficient to be crowned the winner, or one could ask a first grader who would both answer yes, one point is enough; however, our brilliant Harvard lawyer President will certainly have more of a margin than that when it is all said and done!

    Yes, the American people continue to indicate via the daily tracking polls which have stood the test of credible historic time, and in most instances, those who see the handwriting on the wall will begin to go into desperate denial by challenging the credibility of said polls!!

    However, the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth is found in these credible polls which ( again) continue to scream loud and clear that that electorate believe our superb Commander in Chief is not only still the one but the only one who represents any real hope for all Americans going- moving forward inclusive of the 47 per cent with no Swiss bank accounts or bank accounts all over from sea to shining sea.

    As always, keep smiling like only you can( always remembering) never could resist your smile, and now- thanks to Skype- I no longer have to miss it quite as often!

    Let the church and all believers say Amen and say Amen yet again.

    September 28, 2012 07:09 am at 7:09 am |
  23. Joe

    No no no these polls are all wrong isn't that right republicans??? Hahaha this and Romney already rolling over before the debates even start! Can't get much better than this!

    September 28, 2012 07:15 am at 7:15 am |
  24. justin

    Wow! The state of politics and the Obama slobbering has become pathetic.

    September 28, 2012 07:21 am at 7:21 am |
  25. JPX

    The reality is that Obama has been consistently ahead in every poll and will easily win this election. People don't like the vile Romney.

    September 28, 2012 07:25 am at 7:25 am |
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