Poll: Obama stretches lead to 15 points over Romney in N.H.
October 1st, 2012
07:47 PM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Obama stretches lead to 15 points over Romney in N.H.

(CNN) – A new poll released Monday indicates President Barack Obama has expanded his margin over Mitt Romney in New Hampshire and now leads his Republican opponent by 15 points.

Fifty-two percent of likely voters say they will vote for the president, while 37% say they back Romney, according to the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

Three percent, meanwhile, say they prefer a different candidate and 9% are undecided.

The 15-point margin represents a much wider gap than previous polls released in the state last week. According to an American Research Group survey released Friday, the president held a five-point - 50%-45% - advantage over Romney.

And an NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal poll on Thursday showed Obama seven points ahead of Romney in the Granite State, 51% to 44%, a difference outside of the poll's sampling error of 3.1 percentage points.

READ MORE: Obama, Romney tied up in new CNN national poll

New Hampshire, a crucial battleground state rated as a toss-up on CNN's Electoral Map, has four electoral votes.

According to CNN's Poll of Polls, which averages the three recent polls of likely voters, Obama has a nine-point advantage - 51%-42% - over the Republican nominee in New Hampshire, a state where Romney heavily campaigned during the primary and continues to court during the general election.

The new WMUR poll was conducted Thursday through Sunday, a period of time that included Rep. Paul Ryan's trip to the state Saturday - his second such visit in as many weeks. The GOP vice presidential nominee acknowledged the importance of the first-in-the-nation primary state and laid out what's at stake in this election.

"You've had presidential candidates in your kitchens. You're used to this, but that's why you know the responsibility you have," Ryan told the crowd at a rally in Derry, located 15 miles from the border of Massachusetts, a state Romney governed from 2003 to 2007.

New Hampshire will also see a high-profile figure from the Democratic side, as well, this week. Former President Bill Clinton hits the trail for the current president on Wednesday. Obama, however, is not scheduled to be at the Granite State event, as it falls on the same day as the first presidential debate.

The University of New Hampshire interviewed 600 likely voters by telephone between September 27 and September 30. The sampling error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

– CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser and CNN Political Producer Shawna Shepherd contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • New Hampshire • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (20 Responses)
  1. GaryB

    It isn't so much that Obama is extending his lead. His numbers have only gone up a couple of points which is well within the margin of error. What is happening is that former Romney voters have fallen back into either the undecided or third party category.

    October 1, 2012 08:03 pm at 8:03 pm |
  2. policlectic

    BOGUS! 94% of adults qualified as likely voters in this poll. In 2010, 45.9% of the voting age population (VAP) in NH actually voted, according to the Statistical Abstract. So, these results are essentially a snapshot of who the VAP would vote for
    in 2012 . . . IF EVERYONE OVER 18 IN NH VOTED!

    October 1, 2012 08:06 pm at 8:06 pm |
  3. Maxx

    Another one of the Mittster's home states down the drain, rats. There's still hope for Utah!

    October 1, 2012 08:06 pm at 8:06 pm |
  4. n

    Now that's what I'm talking about . . . Go New Hampshire! Real polling that shows real numbers from the battle ground states, the ones that will decide the election.. Ok, let's take a look at Wisconsin poll numbers.

    October 1, 2012 08:10 pm at 8:10 pm |
  5. Gurgyl

    Clearly this is looking like a dummy election, true. Mitt Robme is NOT a proper candidate. That guy does not even know how to talk. USA is going to be MOCKARY if we elect mitt the twit. His FORTY SEVEN PERCENT comment tells what kind of nasty animalistic Mitt is!!! Yes, on Obama12.

    October 1, 2012 08:31 pm at 8:31 pm |
  6. Nope

    That's funny. I can pretty muCh assure you that Obama does not even come close to having that kind of lead up there. But it goes to show that we are having fun with the pollsters.

    October 1, 2012 08:34 pm at 8:34 pm |
  7. Larry L

    The President will do well in those states not populated with under-educated, ill-informed, bigoted, inbred, right-wing extremists. New Hampshire has a good number of independents capable of doing the analysis without the benefit of sound-bites from Fox News. The "red states"... not so much...

    October 1, 2012 08:57 pm at 8:57 pm |
  8. jrm03063

    This is easy to understand. NH used to be a strong state for the GOP, but the GOP used to be a party that knew how to stay out of the business of the individual. They still talk that talk – but when they start trying to tell people who they can be with, how they can take care of their bodies – they are definitely not walking the walk. We also see a lot of weather – and we know that things are changing – and the GOP acts like nothing is happening. We spent years fighting to get the mid-west to understand that their cheap coal-fired electricity was trashing our lakes and streams. Now we see the GOP playing the game of denial – and we know when we're being lied to. NH didn't change – the GOP did.

    October 1, 2012 09:05 pm at 9:05 pm |
  9. sayer

    The places that know Romney well (Michigan, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire) do not want him to become President. That should tell you something.

    October 1, 2012 09:15 pm at 9:15 pm |
  10. Blogger1776

    ...And what were the sampling ratios, CNN? Was this another skewed Liberal sampling where the people in the poll were 55% registered Democrats, 42% registered Republicans, and 3% Independents? Seems a bit odd that the "Live Free or Die" state would favor a Socialist President who is pushing for more government power over us...

    October 1, 2012 09:21 pm at 9:21 pm |
  11. Jharris

    National polls don't really mean much. It is the states that elect the president and vice president. Electoral College. It would rather have an Electoral College lead than a big national popular vote lead nor worry about a shrinking popular vote lead.

    October 1, 2012 09:30 pm at 9:30 pm |
  12. chris abma

    Reguarding the WMUR poll. It is invalid. After reading through who they polled i found that they polled a group of voters who collectively voted 40% for Mccain and 60% for Obama, but the actual margin of victory for Obama was only 9% not 20%. That is an obvious 11 point error in favor of president Obama. So in reality while assuming all the same poeple vote in 2012 who also voted in 2008 then the margin of victory would be 4-5 points for obama not 15 as in the poll, but the voter turnout will not be the same as in 2008. The voter turnout for Obama is bound to atleast be somewhat reduced. By how much less we don't exactly know yet, but it surely will not be more than 2008. While the turnout for Romney is bound to be much better than it was for Mccain, mostly because they are so many poeple who are not happy with Obama's policies that did not know much about Obama in 2008. I suspect all of this will make up for alot more than just 5 points in Romnay's favor.

    October 1, 2012 09:30 pm at 9:30 pm |
  13. inathens

    odd... of all the major polls there, he's up 15 in one. So CNN goes with the headline Obama is up 15.

    October 1, 2012 11:06 pm at 11:06 pm |
  14. LIP

    CNN's headlines say that Obama and Romney are tied in the polls nationwide, so this means absolutely nothing.

    October 1, 2012 11:07 pm at 11:07 pm |
  15. Matthew Wyatt

    Our current president voting system is flawed! There should not be state bountries when voting for the president of the United States of America. Its a national election for our national leader, not a state election. Every person that votes should see their vote count for their canidate, by National Popular vote.

    October 1, 2012 11:53 pm at 11:53 pm |
  16. Consequence

    Are there that many people who do not pay taxes in New Hampshire? Their ancestors once fought against British taxes, but that was because they were working.

    October 2, 2012 12:53 am at 12:53 am |
  17. Bernard obryant

    Like the viking and the bears nice record so far go nfl but lol romney should do like obama focus . Think people want job and a strong middle class so we have to do that. Tax cut for the rich waiting until the rich profit is not going to fix it the middle class have to build a strong class by employ and geting what it deserve

    October 2, 2012 01:07 am at 1:07 am |
  18. RogueRobots

    Thee headline should have read: LYIN' RYAN VISITS N.H., SOLIDIFIES VOTE FOR OBAMA.

    October 2, 2012 02:11 am at 2:11 am |
  19. Larry IN Houston

    15 Points ??? LOL – – W0W !! Romney will end up defeating Obama in the end. I honestly don't think the debates much matter. I suspect it will be a Romney win by the slimmest of margins, and I mean the Slimmest. Just hope the supreme court doesn't decide it.
    Vote Democrat – 2012

    October 2, 2012 02:44 am at 2:44 am |
  20. memo2

    CNN Polls or other media report won't matter, we want Obama out he had his chance already look what we get on the past tree years, nothing, what we have now is economic trouble in near future.

    October 2, 2012 07:43 am at 7:43 am |