Poll: Who will win Wednesday's debate?
October 1st, 2012
11:30 AM ET
6 years ago

Poll: Who will win Wednesday's debate?

Washington (CNN) - Two days before the first debate between President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney, a new poll indicates that most Americans see the GOP challenger as the underdog in the first showdown.

According to a ABC News/Washington Post national poll released Monday, 55% of likely voters say they think the president will win the debate, with 31% saying that Romney will be victorious. The findings on this question from the new survey are in-line with a CNN/ORC International poll conducted right after the Democratic convention earlier this month, where by 59%-34%, likely voters said Obama rather than the former Massachusetts governor would be more likely to do a better job in the October showdowns.

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Wednesday night's debate in Denver, Colorado is the first of three between the president and Romney. Vice President Joe Biden and Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, Romney's running mate, face off once as well.

According to the Washington Post poll, 49% of likely voters say if the election were held today, they'd vote for the president, with 47% saying they'd vote for Romney. The president's two point margin is within the survey's sampling error. A new Politico/George Washington University Battleground poll also released Monday also indicates it 49% for Obama and 47% for Romney among likely voters nationwide.

The two new surveys follow a Fox News poll released late last week which indicated a five point advantage for the president. A CNN Poll of Polls which averages all three surveys together puts Obama at 49% and Romney at 46% among likely voters.

The ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted Sept. 26-29, with 1,001 adults nationwide, including 929 registered voters and 813 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus four percentage points.

The Politico/George Washington University Battleground poll was conducted Sept. 24-27, with 1,000 adults nationwide questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Also see:

- Getting ready for Wednesday's showdown

- Ann Romney to rally while Obama preps for debate across town

- Obama to hit trail after debate

- Romney hits Obama on foreign policy in weekly podcast

- Obama talks housing market in weekly address

Filed under: Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama • Presidential Debate
soundoff (206 Responses)
  1. No brainer

    Vito, it's "lose" not "loose".

    October 1, 2012 03:59 pm at 3:59 pm |
  2. finster mcgee

    Obama cant debate on his record of accomplishments over the last 4 years on improving the economy and job creation because he has no record of accomplishments. Romney is going to eat him alive come wednesday at the debates. Ryan vs. Biden is gonna be an even better show to watch since Biden doesnt have a clue on anything.

    October 1, 2012 04:01 pm at 4:01 pm |
  3. wave06

    I sent my Absentee Ballot in Today.
    I voted straight Democrat the whole Ballot way
    what an exhilarating feeling, thru & thru.

    Vote and feel it too!

    October 1, 2012 04:03 pm at 4:03 pm |
  4. Pete Ballantine Jr

    Ya know, I'm a liberal and I'm pullin for Obama to win the debate, but I think Romney's gonna take this one. I know all us liberals are all excited Obama's gonna crush him but that's just not going to happen. I saw Romney with his back against the wall in the Primary debate in Florida and he cleaned all their clocks. Plus he's the underdog so people don't expect much of him...Sorry guys, I don't think it's gonna play in our favor.

    October 1, 2012 04:03 pm at 4:03 pm |
  5. terrence m.

    Wait till romney grilles obama about why americans are now paying $4 a gallon for gas now and when he was elected gas was below $2. More failed Obama policies.

    October 1, 2012 04:04 pm at 4:04 pm |
  6. SafeJourney

    Google, Lying for the lord. This is what the mormons and Mitt believe. Oh Also google White horse prophecy. This is another crazy mormon belief

    October 1, 2012 04:04 pm at 4:04 pm |
  7. ug

    Romney will win everything...vote Romney.

    October 1, 2012 04:04 pm at 4:04 pm |
  8. J

    depends. will Romney decide to outline any of his planned policies?

    October 1, 2012 04:06 pm at 4:06 pm |
  9. thetruthandnothingbutthetruth

    i just want to see mittens wear his orange "debate" face paint!

    October 1, 2012 04:06 pm at 4:06 pm |
  10. Tex71

    SNL can not hold a candle to the sheer entertainment value of watching Romney being held accountable for the first time in this campaign.

    October 1, 2012 04:06 pm at 4:06 pm |
  11. CryBabies

    @ Ann...Thank you for being a voice of reason. There are a lot of buffoons weighing in on this site.

    October 1, 2012 04:07 pm at 4:07 pm |
  12. Max

    I continue to be absolutely amazed by the vitriol spewed by so many hateful and bigoted people. Where to they all come from?

    October 1, 2012 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  13. CryBabies

    @ lindylou123...I think your candidate has gone over his quota of "empty promises".

    October 1, 2012 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  14. yep

    Debate, what debate? They both know EVERY question that is going to be asked. Heck, their campaign writes down the questions that the meida is ALLOWED to ask. With that being said, Romney probably won't do to well if his past Gaffes are any indication. It doesn't really matter anyway, you either like Romney or Obama or you don't, the choice is very simple. Romney openly states that he will give more tax breaks to the rich, I mean "job creators". This strategy has been tested and it has failed miserably. Obama won't give tax breaks to the rich. Case closed.

    October 1, 2012 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  15. PJ

    Romney will not answer specifics on any question re: the Budget or taxes. He will try to make Obama look bad. They are both good debaters; however, Romney is plastic, Obama real.

    October 1, 2012 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  16. Hammerer

    Lets see. The debate run by the media, the moderator is left wing media and the judges are the media talking heads that get a tingle down their leg at the sight of Obama.
    Do you really believe that the outcome, on the media news, has ever been in doubt?

    October 1, 2012 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  17. torey s.

    47% of people on this board have no clue what obama has done to this country in the last 4 years to set us back financially.

    October 1, 2012 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  18. sharon chandler

    Can someone explain to me how you can vote for a Pres again that 1. hasn't provided a budget in 4 yrs but has run the debt up to 16 trillion 2. said he would be transparent and then behind closed doors produces Obamacare and sign it into law against what the people wanted 3. Said in his book "I will stand with my Muslim brothers should the wind turn into an ugly direction 4. has blown off Irasel our closest ally 5. after 4 americans murdered by terrorist leaves the very next day for Vegas (could he be standing with his Muslim brothers?) Please skip the sacrastic remarks and just give me straight answers. thank you.

    October 1, 2012 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  19. truth hurts

    I am just waiting for Obama to lie to the American people and tell us the country is better off than we were 4 years ago. 8.1% unemployment with millions and millions dropping out of the workforce because they can't find jobs. Barely ANY GDP growth, not enough new jobs being created to account for populatin growth, food stamp rolls exploding, disability claims exploding, fod and fuel prices through the roof.

    Seriously America! Four more years of THIS?!! You have GOT to be kidding!

    October 1, 2012 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  20. Canuck

    @Vito Corleone
    " The worst president in US history is going to loose the election "

    1. You lose your wallet, you carry loose change in your pocket. Get it?
    2. Does the name George W. Bush ring a bell? It should....

    October 1, 2012 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  21. JetfireK

    If it's one thing that we need it's a Presidential Candidate who wonders why we cannot open airplane windows!

    October 1, 2012 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  22. Laurie in Spokane

    Romney is laughable for his flip flops, and unguarded comments. If he's that stupid to talk about the 47% and how he dismisses them from his plans, he has no right to be President. Obama ain't perfect, but sooooo incredibly better than Romney it's is absolutely scary how Romney has gotten he's gotten this far. Tells you how lacking the Republicans are for a decent candidate.

    October 1, 2012 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  23. Hugo Chavez

    My man Obama will win the debate. He has been coached well in the ways of socialism. Lie and tell them anything to get elected. Then break the laws and do whatever you want to accomplish the end. If you liked Obamacare you're goinna love a second term of my man Obama!

    October 1, 2012 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  24. FLIndependent

    The winner-loser thing is absurd. What matters is the take away from each candidate and people's perception of what is said. In the end, it won't make much of a difference as the vast majority have already made up their minds. These debates are nothing more than more $$$$ for the corporate media; that is why they came out today with the race still being very close so more people will watch. President Obama will prevail to win another term.

    October 1, 2012 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  25. kendra

    let's return to the salad days of 4 years ago – when republicants swear they were better off

    October 1, 2012 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
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