Poll: Who will win Wednesday's debate?
October 1st, 2012
11:30 AM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Who will win Wednesday's debate?

Washington (CNN) - Two days before the first debate between President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney, a new poll indicates that most Americans see the GOP challenger as the underdog in the first showdown.

According to a ABC News/Washington Post national poll released Monday, 55% of likely voters say they think the president will win the debate, with 31% saying that Romney will be victorious. The findings on this question from the new survey are in-line with a CNN/ORC International poll conducted right after the Democratic convention earlier this month, where by 59%-34%, likely voters said Obama rather than the former Massachusetts governor would be more likely to do a better job in the October showdowns.

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Wednesday night's debate in Denver, Colorado is the first of three between the president and Romney. Vice President Joe Biden and Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, Romney's running mate, face off once as well.

According to the Washington Post poll, 49% of likely voters say if the election were held today, they'd vote for the president, with 47% saying they'd vote for Romney. The president's two point margin is within the survey's sampling error. A new Politico/George Washington University Battleground poll also released Monday also indicates it 49% for Obama and 47% for Romney among likely voters nationwide.

The two new surveys follow a Fox News poll released late last week which indicated a five point advantage for the president. A CNN Poll of Polls which averages all three surveys together puts Obama at 49% and Romney at 46% among likely voters.

The ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted Sept. 26-29, with 1,001 adults nationwide, including 929 registered voters and 813 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus four percentage points.

The Politico/George Washington University Battleground poll was conducted Sept. 24-27, with 1,000 adults nationwide questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Also see:

– Getting ready for Wednesday's showdown

– Ann Romney to rally while Obama preps for debate across town

– Obama to hit trail after debate

– Romney hits Obama on foreign policy in weekly podcast

– Obama talks housing market in weekly address


Filed under: Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama • Presidential Debate
soundoff (206 Responses)
  1. LKT

    I want to know why the Libertarian and Green Party candidates are not invited to this so called debate? I want to know why the "media" does not advertise the fact that there ARE other candidates running for President? I want to know when big media and both Democrate/Republican parties are sued for breaking anti-trust laws? Our entire election process should be subject to anti-trust legislation the way it silences any party besides the Big 2. Listening to a Obama/Romney only debate is like listening to a two-headed coin speak!

    October 1, 2012 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  2. The Real Tom Paine

    -truth hurts

    I am just waiting for Obama to lie to the American people and tell us the country is better off than we were 4 years ago. 8.1% unemployment with millions and millions dropping out of the workforce because they can't find jobs. Barely ANY GDP growth, not enough new jobs being created to account for populatin growth, food stamp rolls exploding, disability claims exploding, fod and fuel prices through the roof.

    Seriously America! Four more years of THIS?!! You have GOT to be kidding!
    ***********************
    And you want to replace him with one of the pioneers of offshoring jobs? What kind of signal does that send? It says that your bench is not just thin, its non-existent. 401Ks are exploding in value, interest rates are at an all-time low, manufacturing has been steadily improving....and you want to replace him with a man who would double-down on the tax cuts that exploded the debt, sending even more wealth pouring out of what is left of the middle class....tell us how Romney would be so much better? What is his plan: answer, there is none. Whatever his masters tell him to do, he will do, and become the Ayn Rand-style bootlicker the GOP has wet dreams over. All they want is a well-trained set of digits to give Grover Norquist more tax cuts. How do the tax cuts help you personally? Do tell, you have an opinion on everything else, or are you just another Red-State loafer?

    October 1, 2012 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  3. Delos

    All this speculation about these debates are really stupid, Romney said it best when he was alone with his rich friends,
    To hell with me and you the 47%, CASE CLOSED SUCKERS.

    October 1, 2012 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  4. Debby

    WEll Cnn can't go a day putting their boy obama winning everything. Really the media has become a farce.

    October 1, 2012 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  5. FLIndependent

    @gregor – "People forget that Obama was a pretty bad debater in 2008. Hillary beat him each time. Obama is bad when he is off the teleprompter, as seen in this election cycle. When he doesn't have the words written down in front of him, he makes lots of mistakes."
    _____________________________
    Just like an Obama hater to completely forget the real debates of '08...you know the ones between the two PRESIDENTIAL candidates – Obama beat McCain every time and guess who won the election? Geez...you people amaze me sometimes.

    October 1, 2012 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  6. Russ

    Here is the TRUTH. (if you can handle it) If Barack Hussein Obama is re-elected, Americans will experience the biggest political allocation of wealth and opportunity, FROM the majority of working class Americans, TO the minority of individuals, who aren't interested in earning their way through life. Obama doesn't dare use the word "reparations", however, this is basicly what he intends to implement. But, this thing called "white guilt" got this socialist elected, and I imagine "white guilt " and ultra liberalism will get him re-elected. In the meantime, this once great nation will perish.

    October 1, 2012 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  7. jnpa

    @terrence m. – The president has nothing to do with the price of gas. That will be an easy question for the President to answer.

    October 1, 2012 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  8. Wilson

    @kendra
    let's return to the salad days of 4 years ago – when republicants swear they were better off
    ------------------------------------------
    I was better off, my salary was 13K a year higher.

    October 1, 2012 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  9. FLIndependent

    Vito Corleone

    @Vito – "Obama's gonna loose, Obama's gonna loose. The worst president in US history is going to loose the election and there is no way the mainstream media can spin it that will change the outcome. Liberals still don't realize that the popular vote does not decide the election for president. That is up to the electoral college, which will decide who is best to lead the country, the economy and job killer or Mitt Romney."
    ___________________________
    You're right and the electoral college has shown Obama blowing Mittens away for at least 4 months now. There hasn't been one time yet where Mittens pulled ahead. The ONLY way Mittens will win the electoral college will be another repeat of 2000 where manipulation and cheating was involved.

    October 1, 2012 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  10. Magoomba

    "Man-Palin" doesn't stand a chance. It will be the best comedy of the year.

    October 1, 2012 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  11. AgrippaMT

    Mittens Rawmoney is definitely an underdog and deserves to remain that way through election day. He is utterly unqualified, and his wife believes he is mentally unstable.

    October 1, 2012 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  12. Nelson Colorado Springs Co

    The New York Jets will WIN

    October 1, 2012 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  13. The Real Tom Paine

    Wilson

    @kendra
    let's return to the salad days of 4 years ago – when republicants swear they were better off
    --------------
    I was better off, my salary was 13K a year higher.
    *********************************
    That's your fault. Mine is higher, by about 13K.....guess you know where it went.

    October 1, 2012 04:50 pm at 4:50 pm |
  14. truth hurts

    The Real Tom Paine - 401Ks are exploding in value, interest rates are at an all-time low
    ================================================================
    Do you have ANY CLUE about why this is happening? It is called QE1,2,3,4,5,6,7..... In other words the printing of money nonstop in order to buy up our own debt and try to "stimulate" the economy. All that money floods into the stock market artificially drivin gup stock prices. You better enjoy it while it lasts and pull your money out before the government money bubble explodes or you ewill lose it all.

    And the feds MUST keep interest rates low. If they don't and the rates start to increase, the interest cost of our $16 TRILLION debt will explode and this country WILL go down. We pay $500 BILLION a year in interest at low rates and that could easily go over a TRILLION a year if rates climb. What then Charlie Brown?! Where is all THAT money going to come from?

    The house of cards Obama has built will explode on Romney after he is elected. He's better have a good plan to defuse the massive IED Obama has planted in our economy.

    October 1, 2012 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
  15. Wilson

    @FLIndependent

    @gregor – "People forget that Obama was a pretty bad debater in 2008. Hillary beat him each time. Obama is bad when he is off the teleprompter, as seen in this election cycle. When he doesn't have the words written down in front of him, he makes lots of mistakes."
    _____________________________
    Just like an Obama hater to completely forget the real debates of '08...you know the ones between the two PRESIDENTIAL candidates – Obama beat McCain every time and guess who won the election? Geez...you people amaze me sometimes.
    -----------------------------------------
    And you amaze me. The real debates were between Hillary and Obama (which he lost every time). The debates between Obama and McCain???? Don't make me laugh, a cardboard box could beat McCain in a debate.

    October 1, 2012 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  16. Woman In California

    Willard has to present himself as "Mitt" to come off as relatable, likeable – you know one of us kind of guys. The problem is, once he walks on the national stage, he'll be Willard M. Romney, candidate for POTUS (the one we all saw, heard and DISLIKED in the Florida video). Mitt v Willard, Willard v Mitt, both are losers and all the president has to do is let them debate themselves.

    October 1, 2012 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  17. Ray Brady

    you cnn people are so bias over obama its a shame, obama has screwed this country out of 4 years and a tremendous debt. 6 expensive vactions, over 100 rounds of golf, a screwed up gov, and you want to see him elected again? this man is a rock solid muslim, hell bent on completely conforming a large gov. killing our economy, weakening our military, and killing our middle class. he went for 20 years to rev wrights church who has condemed the u.s. by taking the lords name invane. now, i dought you will run this one........and i will not watch cnn anymore.

    October 1, 2012 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  18. Gurgyl

    @vito, you are just an uneducated–GOP will suck you blood and send you to Iran War-shhhh, not his five children, do not be real idiot, educate, quit color stuff–obama has brain Mitt the twit does not, so he made 47 percent comment. Learn.

    October 1, 2012 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  19. cali girl

    The fly on the wall video blunder will be fodder, Robmeys own words come back to haunt him, not because it's Halloween time either.

    October 1, 2012 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  20. Blah blah the wheel's off your trailer

    Romney is not only the underdog, he's a lying deceitful hypocrite, a bigot, a racist, a socialist, a communist and a tax evader. A matter of fact, a dog with fleas is better than this right wing waste of life smelly stinking worthless confederate.

    October 1, 2012 05:15 pm at 5:15 pm |
  21. Lilli

    Romney wants to be Commander-in-CHief but none of his boys have ever served this country!!!! Romney is no patriot and should be ashamed of himself claiming he cares about the troops!!

    October 1, 2012 05:18 pm at 5:18 pm |
  22. John

    @LKT-nothing is stopping either of those candidates from airing their own debate, so can the anti-trust baloney. Their party organizations can pay for the air time if they really want to get their message out.

    October 1, 2012 05:21 pm at 5:21 pm |
  23. Blah blah the wheel's off your trailer

    I was just watching the Cafferty Files and Jack Cafferty released a poll that shows GWB as being more liked, more favorable and more popular than Mitt Romney. That says it all. Its not too late for Romney to go take a sip of Kool-Aid. Hope he remembers to take lying Ryan with him.

    October 1, 2012 05:23 pm at 5:23 pm |
  24. John

    @truthhurts-you wouldn't know it if it bit you in the backside. Nice try, but your economic illiteracy ranks right up there with Mitt's.

    October 1, 2012 05:24 pm at 5:24 pm |
  25. epinion

    Romney must have been a Baird Man!

    October 1, 2012 05:26 pm at 5:26 pm |
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