New polls in crucial battlegrounds
October 3rd, 2012
11:10 AM ET
2 years ago

New polls in crucial battlegrounds

Denver (CNN) - Hours before the first presidential debate here at the base of the Rocky Mountains, new polls indicate that President Barack Obama holds a lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in one crucial battleground state, with the race for the White House basically all tied up in two other swing states.

The states, Florida, Ohio and Virginia, have been getting an outsized proportion of attention from the candidates and their campaigns compared to the other swing states.

Tune to CNN for Wednesday's presidential debate coverage starting at 7 p.m. ET on CNN TV, CNN.com and via CNN's apps for iPhone, iPad and Android. Web users can become video editors with a new clip-and-share feature that allows them to share favorite debate moments on Facebook and Twitter.

– Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

– Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

According to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey released Wednesday morning, 47% of likely voters in Florida say they back the president, with 46% supporting Romney, the former Massachusetts governor. Obama's one point margin is well within the survey's sampling error, meaning the battle for the Sunshine State's 29 electoral votes can be considered a dead heat.

The president held a 49%-45% edge in Florida in the previous NBC/WSJ/Marist poll.

The new survey, which was conducted Sept.30-Oct. 1, is latest of seven non-partisan, live operator polls of likely voters conducted over the past two weeks. The other surveys are Suffolk University (Sept. 27-30); Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times (Sept. 18-24); Mason Dixon (Sept. 17-19); Washington Post (Sept. 19-23); American Research Group (Sept. 20-22) and Fox News (Sept. 16-18). A CNN Poll of Polls which averages all seven surveys puts the president at 49% and Romney at 45%.

President George W. Bush carried Florida in his 2004 re-election, but Obama turned Florida from red to blue four years ago.

It's a similar story in Virginia, where a new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll indicates the president at 48% and Romney at 46%. Obama's two point edge is within the sampling error. The survey is the third non-partisan, live operator poll conducted over the past week of likely voters in Virginia. American Research Group (Sept. 24-27); Suffolk University (Sept. 24-26) are the other two. A CNN Poll of Polls of the three surveys puts Obama at 48% and Romney at 46%.

Thirteen electoral voters are at stake in Virginia. Four years ago Obama became the first Democrat to win the Commonwealth in a presidential election since 1964.

The new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll in Ohio indicates the president with an eight point 51%-43% lead.). The new survey is the third conducted in Ohio over the past two weeks. The others are Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times (Sept. 18-24); Washington Post (Sept. 19-23). A CNN Poll of Polls which averages all three surveys indicates Obama at 52% and Romney at 43%.

Bush carried the state in 2004, with Obama topping Sen. John McCain of Arizona in the Buckeye State four years ago. Eighteen electoral votes are up for grabs in Ohio.

The NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll was conducted by telephone with 890 likely voters in Florida, 931 likely voters in Ohio and 969 likely voters in Virginia questioned. The sampling errors are plus or minus 3.1 percentage points in Ohio and Virginia and plus or minus 3.3 percentage points in Florida.


Filed under: 2012 • Florida • Ohio • Virginia
soundoff (33 Responses)
  1. Namejkane sfl a vote for the gop will cut your moms medicare and soc sec .can you afford to pay for them???

    To all the military in virgina, the gop voted. Againest your veterans bill, pay them back with a vote for Obama !!!!

    October 3, 2012 11:14 am at 11:14 am |
  2. HOLY TIGHTY WHITIES WILLARD

    Virginia is Obama Country!

    October 3, 2012 11:31 am at 11:31 am |
  3. Bill

    Of all three, Ohio is the most critical to Romney and he is losing and has been for some time. And he will lose on November 6. End of story.

    October 3, 2012 11:31 am at 11:31 am |
  4. Airborne

    I am in VA. VA will remain blue, there is no doubt about that. I am voting Obama, my family as well.

    October 3, 2012 11:33 am at 11:33 am |
  5. John, PA

    Romney is ahead in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Romney is pulling the swing voters in California his way and the Democrats don’t even see it.

    October 3, 2012 11:35 am at 11:35 am |
  6. Ray E. (Georgia)

    Uh,
    If you vote wrong be prepared to pay the price. People need jobs. So far not much hiring. Not sure what Veterans Bill the GOP voted against as there has been no Budget passed the last 4 years. For Jobs improvement Romney is the much better Choice. You already know about Obama's Record.

    October 3, 2012 11:37 am at 11:37 am |
  7. So What

    Good for you and yours Airborne!

    October 3, 2012 11:37 am at 11:37 am |
  8. RetNavy2001

    To all fellow Vets in Vriginia fron a Vet in Virginia, show your support for a stronger America by voting for Romney. OBama does not care about us Vets. He wants to cut the military.

    October 3, 2012 11:38 am at 11:38 am |
  9. RetNavy2001

    Come November we can be proud when Romney defeats Obama and kicks him to the curb, Romney/Ryan for a Stronger America

    October 3, 2012 11:40 am at 11:40 am |
  10. Hillcrester

    The Ohio situation continues to be a disaster for Romney, likely to become only worse for him as auto sales surge.

    October 3, 2012 11:46 am at 11:46 am |
  11. lnd72

    Hopefully Romney will continue to chip away at the President's lead. Judging by the health care law that he forced through, I'd hate to see what else he has in store.

    October 3, 2012 11:55 am at 11:55 am |
  12. Bill

    @ John, PA.

    Would you please share with us what you are smoking. It must be good, given the deluded nature of your remarks.

    October 3, 2012 11:55 am at 11:55 am |
  13. Me IN HOUSTON

    Other polls have Obama ahead anywhere from 5-7 points in all swing states.

    Anther point to be made:
    RetNavy2001
    "To all fellow Vets in Vriginia fron a Vet in Virginia, show your support for a stronger America by voting for Romney. OBama does not care about us Vets. He wants to cut the military."
    ----------------–
    this is false. Obama is constantly thanking the vets for their service. Romney never acknowledges the service of our vets. Obama has been in office 4 years. He has not cut the military. In fact, he has increased military spending and care for vets. He is not going to cut them.

    October 3, 2012 11:56 am at 11:56 am |
  14. usa

    What's the deal with Ohioans?? Are they living in a twilight zone time warp?? I hope they look beyond their borders and see what's best for the country as a whole – Romeny / Ryan !!

    October 3, 2012 11:57 am at 11:57 am |
  15. Bob

    Auto sales surge? Have you read a news paper lately.

    October 3, 2012 11:59 am at 11:59 am |
  16. truth hurts

    How many thousands of military people will be laid off because Obama wants to gut the military with $1 TRILLION in spending cuts over 10 years? Even his laptdog Panetta says the cuts will decimate the military but he is doing them anyways. All while pretending to threaten war with Iran if they develop a nuclear bomb.

    Obama endangers our security and that of many others. He is a very dangerous person to have in the Whitehouse.

    October 3, 2012 12:00 pm at 12:00 pm |
  17. NEVER to VOTE REPUBLICAN again

    GOP cares less about Vets. The Repubs vote against helping them. The GOP loves war though! Send the 5 Romney boys to Afgan!

    October 3, 2012 12:01 pm at 12:01 pm |
  18. NEVER to VOTE REPUBLICAN again

    No, the REPUBS voted to lower defense because they WOULD NOT compromise! STOP WATCHING LYING FOX NEWS!

    October 3, 2012 12:02 pm at 12:02 pm |
  19. Phil Thomas

    @John in PA what fantasy island do you live in and what are you basing this on ? Orange County is not a swing vote in California it always goes RNC and what poll are you basing the fact that he is leading. Stop eating up what Fox News is serving, your side knows its done people are pulling money back and putting it in Congressional races after realizing their money won't buy a president. The right wing media is digging up 5 to 20 year old tapes every week hoping something sticks. They have your candidates on tape every week showing disdain for the Middle class, give me a break its done but if that is what it takes for you to get up and get to the voting booth and stand in line and keep your spirits up until about 11pm EST on election day when they announce what the rest of us have known for months, do it.

    October 3, 2012 12:06 pm at 12:06 pm |
  20. Four and The Door

    Hillcrester
    The Ohio situation continues to be a disaster for Romney, likely to become only worse for him as auto sales surge.
    ______________________________________________________________________________________________
    Mitt Romney was exactly correct on the use of federal tax dollars for the auto industry. They still went bankrupt. Just like he suggested. They would be in the same place they are now except the taxpayers would be $25 billion better off. Doesn't sound like much? How about over a year's annual budget for NASA?

    October 3, 2012 12:06 pm at 12:06 pm |
  21. Anonymous

    President Obama isnt cutting Military Spending...republicans in the House and Senate are the ones who want to do the cutting, and vetoed the Veterains jobs bill

    October 3, 2012 12:06 pm at 12:06 pm |
  22. Facts don't Lie

    I wonder if the polls show Romney tied or closer to the president and perhaps after the debate making up ground or even leading in some polls will the right wingers STILL be saying the polls are skewed? I doubt if they will and if they don't the left should go after them on it.

    October 3, 2012 12:07 pm at 12:07 pm |
  23. Wheels Fall Off

    Rob-me fans: I said place it on Lucky Dan! That horse is going to finish SECOND !!

    October 3, 2012 12:07 pm at 12:07 pm |
  24. UrAverageJoe

    Without OH, Romney can't win. He's not truly ahead in any swing state. It could still change, but it's not an easy road. Ohio seems out of reach. Without bringing another state into play, Romeny's chances are bleak. And, despite what John in PA says, Romney's not really contesting Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. The efforts there are minimal compared to what would be needed to truly contest the state and bring them into play.

    October 3, 2012 12:12 pm at 12:12 pm |
  25. Loy Morris

    I don't understand the Republicans. How can you want less Federal Government and regulations and take over a woman's body? Obama's job bill, the farmers bill, and the veteran's bill is sitting in a do nothing Congress. The Congress has one desire.....make Obama a one term president. How can these people in Congress accept their monthly check, benefits, and 5,000 per month cost of living pay from the Federal Government? If I told my former employers NO I won't do my job....I wouldn't have lasted one minute. The 47% of the people in the USA are hard working folks...not moochers or lazy folks that want something for nothing...like the No sayers in Congress.

    October 3, 2012 12:15 pm at 12:15 pm |
1 2