Poll: Obama 53%-Romney 42% in Wisconsin
October 3rd, 2012
04:33 PM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Obama 53%-Romney 42% in Wisconsin

(CNN) - Hours before the first presidential debate, a new poll indicates President Barack Obama is holding his lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in the race for Wisconsin's ten electoral votes.

According to a Marquette Law School survey released Wednesday, 53% of likely voters in the Badger State say they're backing the president, with 42% supporting Romney, the former Massachusetts governor. Obama's 11-point lead is down from a 14 point lead in the previous Marquette poll conducted in mid September, after the Democratic convention.

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Two other non-partisan, live operator surveys conducted during that same mid-September time period indicated a much closer contest. A CNN Poll of Polls which averaged all three surveys put Obama up by nine points.

The last Republican to win Wisconsin in a presidential contest was President Ronald Reagan, in his 1984 re-election. While the battle for Wisconsin was close in 2000 and 2004, Obama won the state by double digits four years ago. Wisconsin is the home of Romney's running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan.

According to the poll, Obama holds a 49%-40% advantage over Romney among independent voters, and a 61%-36% lead over Romney among females. Romney has a 49%-44% edge among men.

The poll also indicates a close contest in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl, with Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin holding a 48%-44% edge over former Gov. Tommy Thompson, the Republican nominee. Baldwin's margin is within the poll's sampling error. She held a nine point lead in the previous Marquette survey.

The Marquette Law School poll was conducted 27-30, with 894 likely voters in Wisconsin questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.


Filed under: 2012 • Wisconsin
soundoff (33 Responses)
  1. truth hurts

    I wonder what the results are if you don't poll 55% Democrats???

    October 3, 2012 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  2. HOLY TIGHTY WHITIES WILLARD

    If the polling is this bad for the presidential ticket, Lyin Ryan better be very concerned. This could mean he loses his congressional race.

    October 3, 2012 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  3. TheVoice2

    Rethuglicans again are going to question the poll sampling in favor of Democrats. The polls don't go in there and decide how many of each party they are going to poll. Out of all the people they poll they ask what party affiliation they are. Just happends to be everytime more people are voting Democrat or for Obama.

    And to put this at rest. Why does the Faux polls have Obama ahead also? They too are part of the media conspiracy. Bottomline is the neo-cons can't accept they are going to loos the election, the senate, and probably the house. Truth Hurts, truth hurts.

    October 3, 2012 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  4. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    Yet, if you poll only birthers, bigots, and billionaires in Wisconsin, Mittens wins the poll.

    October 3, 2012 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  5. sassysticks53

    Truth, you gonna have to face it; Myth Romney and Lyin Ryan are gonna get their butts whupped on 11/6!

    OBAMA/BIDEN 2012
    ALL DEMOCRATS 2012

    October 3, 2012 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  6. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    What is important to remember is that Lyin Ayn Ryan is not doing much better in his home state than Mittens is doing in MA.

    October 3, 2012 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  7. Woman In California

    Go Wisconsin!

    October 3, 2012 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  8. Donkey Party

    Thanks Paul Ryan!

    And to "truth hurts" – The "real" truth hurts, doesn't it? Silly little broken record.

    October 3, 2012 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  9. Indy

    truth hurts

    I wonder what the results are if you don't poll 55% Democrats???

    The results would be similar, and it just proves that all the lying that Ryan has put forth did not pass the stink test and with Romney throwing 47% under the bus what the heck do you expect, not all Republicans are dumb and they do not accept the lies like you do

    October 3, 2012 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  10. Dan in Chitown

    Hey truth hurts, is there any poll that your side will not complain about if the outcome is not what you like. Is this another conspiracy, the pollsters are now in the bag for Obama? How about this one, I don't know if I believe you or not about the 55% democrats, but if true, it is probably representative of the electorate that they are surveying. Should I survey 50% republicans and 50% democrats in California when it is clear that there are more Democrats in the state population? No, you sample a "representative" sample of the voting population. This is the reason I am sure all of those polls you like show the numbers you like to see.

    October 3, 2012 04:50 pm at 4:50 pm |
  11. rs

    Truth- learn about polling please. There is no grand conspiracy here. Polls don't need to equalize Republican and Democratic voters because they do not have equal numbers in the population as a whole, nor should one assume that a Democrat automatically votes for Obama, or that a member of the GOP votes for Romney. Pollsters are seeking voters and their likely votes, not their party affiliation.

    Read the details: Romney lags more than 20 points with women; 40+ points with Hispanics and hardly registers with Blacks at all. That is not a sustainable path to victory.

    Face it- The GOP has made itself unsellable with too much far-right radicalism, and once again-it stepped on the proverbial "third-rail"- Medicare and Social Security.

    October 3, 2012 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  12. thetruthandnothingbutthetruth

    Romney=Fail

    October 3, 2012 04:57 pm at 4:57 pm |
  13. jmmjr49er

    Wow, more polling from USSR pollsters.

    October 3, 2012 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  14. Willard

    "Truth"
    did you learn something from all of these comments before? Probably not!

    October 3, 2012 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  15. Hammerer

    If you remember in 2008 Obama attacked Wall Street and big oil companies as the bad guys and promised that he would fix that problem.
    Who is making the billions under Obama's regime? With gas at nearly $5 a gal. ( Obama said he wanted energy prices like Europe) big oil is doing quite well and as for Wall Street with all of the bailouts they are seeing record profits
    And the poor working stiff is still getting the shaft.

    October 3, 2012 05:03 pm at 5:03 pm |
  16. Romney Said Let Them Eat Cake

    If Romney can't win in Ryan's home state what does that tell republicans that the truth really hurts.

    October 3, 2012 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  17. Four and The Door

    Considering the failed current Obama administration I would expect that 53% of the people polled didn't understand the question.

    October 3, 2012 05:05 pm at 5:05 pm |
  18. NotFooledByDistractions

    romney/ryan are set to lose every one of their proclaimed home states – wisconsin, mass., michigan – you just can't make this stuff up.

    October 3, 2012 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  19. carlos

    and the willard will be wearing MAGIC DIAPERS tonight, nauseating he is.

    October 3, 2012 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  20. weeDoggie

    Fact is Paul Lyin's got some really bad ideology. GOP better jettison their Tea Party anchor if they want to a major american political party

    October 3, 2012 05:13 pm at 5:13 pm |
  21. Gurgyl

    Obama12.

    October 3, 2012 05:14 pm at 5:14 pm |
  22. Anonymous

    @truth

    You all cried when the polls included AA, Hispanics, the youth, and women in the polling. Now you're crying when all those factors are taken out of the likely voter weighting. Give it up and accept that Romney is going to lose. 52% of America has already made up their minds to vote for Obama.

    October 3, 2012 05:33 pm at 5:33 pm |
  23. Blinded by the republican lie

    Yeah...what they said in previous posts...Obama/Biden 11/6/12

    October 3, 2012 05:36 pm at 5:36 pm |
  24. Hugo Chavez

    Obama will win going away. He is ahead in the illegal alien vote, 100 to 0%. Socialism will win again. You can't stop it just like you can't stop the illegal invasion.

    October 3, 2012 05:38 pm at 5:38 pm |
  25. usa

    So now the Marquette Law School is the authority on polls? Please give us a break. No offense to the law school, but this doesn't hold a lot of weight. You're not going to throw us off our game for tonight, CNN. Bring – it – on!!!

    October 3, 2012 05:40 pm at 5:40 pm |
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