Poll: Obama 53%-Romney 42% in Wisconsin
October 3rd, 2012
04:33 PM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Obama 53%-Romney 42% in Wisconsin

(CNN) - Hours before the first presidential debate, a new poll indicates President Barack Obama is holding his lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in the race for Wisconsin's ten electoral votes.

According to a Marquette Law School survey released Wednesday, 53% of likely voters in the Badger State say they're backing the president, with 42% supporting Romney, the former Massachusetts governor. Obama's 11-point lead is down from a 14 point lead in the previous Marquette poll conducted in mid September, after the Democratic convention.

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Two other non-partisan, live operator surveys conducted during that same mid-September time period indicated a much closer contest. A CNN Poll of Polls which averaged all three surveys put Obama up by nine points.

The last Republican to win Wisconsin in a presidential contest was President Ronald Reagan, in his 1984 re-election. While the battle for Wisconsin was close in 2000 and 2004, Obama won the state by double digits four years ago. Wisconsin is the home of Romney's running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan.

According to the poll, Obama holds a 49%-40% advantage over Romney among independent voters, and a 61%-36% lead over Romney among females. Romney has a 49%-44% edge among men.

The poll also indicates a close contest in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl, with Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin holding a 48%-44% edge over former Gov. Tommy Thompson, the Republican nominee. Baldwin's margin is within the poll's sampling error. She held a nine point lead in the previous Marquette survey.

The Marquette Law School poll was conducted 27-30, with 894 likely voters in Wisconsin questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.


Filed under: 2012 • Wisconsin
soundoff (33 Responses)
  1. Bill

    The presence of Ryan on the ticket has assured that Romney will lose Wisconsin. The guy is a creep and deserves to lose his House seat (which may well happen – go Rob Zerban!!). Imagine, at age 42, he would have to go out and get a real job.

    October 3, 2012 05:48 pm at 5:48 pm |
  2. janelle

    Just remember, in the recent recall election, the polls had Gov Walker losing all the way, and were calling it too close to call on election day, Walker won by 7%, 1% more than he beat the same opponet by 2 years earlier.

    October 3, 2012 05:53 pm at 5:53 pm |
  3. eric

    love the comments regarding poll errors and left leaning.....the article even says it itself, Wisconsin has not gone blue since Reagen, frankly this is not news Wisconsin is going to go blue...

    October 3, 2012 05:59 pm at 5:59 pm |
  4. truth hurts

    Come on people... does anybody in their right mind believe that Obama is going to carry Wisconsin by the same amount he did in 2008?!! Totally delusional.... this poll is WAY out there on the fringe.

    October 3, 2012 06:06 pm at 6:06 pm |
  5. rs

    Truth- Polls are a snapshot. They are not predicting what will happen on Nov. 6, but what is happening NOW. There are 34 more days that will determine what happens then. RIGHT NOW, Obama beats Romney. Nov. 6 is still an open question.

    October 3, 2012 06:27 pm at 6:27 pm |
  6. Sniffit

    "Just remember, in the recent recall election, the polls had Gov Walker losing all the way"

    Seriously? No they didn't. Truly, they didn't. They almost universally had him winning the entire time and it was a major uphill battle all along for the recall, as everyone knew it would be going into it. Are you guys so addled from the Teatroll echo chamber that you even feel the pathological need to try to rewrite history of just a couple months ago?

    October 3, 2012 06:30 pm at 6:30 pm |
  7. the situation

    BAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

    janelle
    Just remember, in the recent recall election, the polls had Gov Walker losing all the way, and were calling it too close to call on election day, Walker won by 7%, 1% more than he beat the same opponet by 2 years earlier.

    October 3, 2012 05:53 pm at 5:53 pm |

    What poll were you watching. Walker was leading for in the polls all the way thru the final weeks of the recall according to RCP. Ryan is a dweeb and a pathetic liar. The Rethugs are going to lose the industrial Midwest, MI, OH and WI. Along with PA, you can kiss this election over. I guess around the time frame of anytime after 11:30 to 12am on the night of Nov 6 or morning of Nov 7, Mitts will be making his concession speech!

    October 3, 2012 06:33 pm at 6:33 pm |
  8. Lisa P

    If this polling result caused all parties to walk back their ad buys it would be a real win for Wisconsin –we're all already sick of all the creepy, lying commercials. We've made up our minds, now leave us alone! Unfortunately there probably aren't enough real "battleground" states left to absorb all that corporate and special interest money. Maybe they could spread the largesse to some of the dark- or solid-colored states for a change? Please?

    October 3, 2012 06:33 pm at 6:33 pm |
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