Two very different polls in battle for White House
October 8th, 2012
04:12 PM ET
2 years ago

Two very different polls in battle for White House

Washington (CNN) - Two national polls released Monday suggest Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney got a bounce out of last week's first presidential debate, though they differ on how much of a bump the GOP nominee received after his performance in Denver.

According to a Pew Research Center survey released Monday afternoon, 49% of likely voters say they back Romney, with 45% supporting President Barack Obama. The survey was conducted October 4-7, the four days after last Wednesday's first presidential debate in Denver, Colorado. Romney's four-point advantage is within the survey's sampling error.

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In Pew's previous poll, conducted in mid-September, the president had a 51%-43% lead among likely voters.

Among registered voters, Obama and Romney were both at 46% in the Pew survey released Monday. In mid-September Obama was at 51% and Romney was at 42% among registered voters.

Meanwhile, Gallup's latest daily tracking poll of registered voters, also released Monday afternoon, indicates the president with a 50%-45% advantage over Romney. The president's edge is within the survey's sampling error. The poll was conducted October 1-7, both before and after the debate.

Early Monday Gallup released a breakdown of its previous tracking poll, which was conducted September 30-October 6. The survey indicated that Obama held a 50%-45% advantage over Romney from September 30-October 2, the three days leading up to last Wednesday's presidential debate, and that Romney and Obama were deadlocked at 47% each in the three days after the debate, from October 4-6.

Responding to the Pew poll, an Obama campaign official pointed to a shift in the party identification percentages used in Pew's mid-September poll compared to the poll released Monday.

The earlier survey was composed of 39% Democrats, 29% Republicans and 30% independents, while Monday's poll was comprised of 31% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 30% independents.

"This is far bigger than any one-month change in party ID ever reported by Pew in the past," the Obama campaign official said.

Another representative of the Obama campaign said the "state of the race is what it has been, which is a close and competitive race in key states with a slight lean towards the president."

Meanwhile, a Romney campaign official said the GOP effort was "encouraged by the enthusiasm we are seeing from supporters who are energized, as well as undecided voters who are now giving the Governor a new look." They are "continuing to work hard to bring home persuadable voters," the official said.

The new Gallup Tracking poll questioned approximately 2,200 registered voters nationwide by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

The Pew Research center poll questioned 1,112 likely voters by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

CNN's Jim Acosta and Dan Lothian contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls
soundoff (363 Responses)
  1. mb2010a

    I really don't pay any attention to the polls anymore. All I know is that it is statistically impossible for Romney to win this election based on the electoral map. He may or may not win the popular vote by a small margin, but the president is not elected by the popular vote, remember? I am predicting Obama will win the electoral vote by 345 to Romney's 193...it takes 270 electoral votes to win. Romney just does not have the electoral votes locked up to win this thing...period.

    October 9, 2012 06:24 am at 6:24 am |
  2. Grayson

    "Don't tax the rich, they are doing just fine". That way we can bypass socialism and go straight to fascism. Yeah! Let's do it!
    A real and honest capitalistic government would be just to fair.
    us common people need to stay....common.

    October 9, 2012 06:33 am at 6:33 am |
  3. GI Joe

    Have you seen how much Romney wants to INCREASE Defense spending? Can't pay for that without tax increases - major tax increases - on the middle class, no doubt. Or maybe steal granny's soc. sec. that she paid in.

    Lying Ryan/Romney will NEVER get my vote. I love my grand-children and great-grand-children.

    October 9, 2012 06:36 am at 6:36 am |
  4. shamil

    Romney has already made so many blunders I don't understand why he is still on the race???

    October 9, 2012 06:52 am at 6:52 am |
  5. crazeelegs

    Mitt & his handlers knew they only had the debates to try to win the election. That is why the Mitt prepared for over a month for the debates. President Obama did not have such a luxury..he was too busy running the country and only had a few days to prepare. I personally don't think Mitt "won" the debate..he simply lied and strayed from his previous stands. He appeared to be more to the left of the far-right and therefore seemed to be more attractive to more voters. He will, and has, said anything & everything to try to win. After a slight "bump", the numbers settled back down. The important numbers are in the key battleground states where Mitt has not made up much, if any, ground. Under the WORST scenario, President Obama will win with 276 electoral votes..even IF Mitt wins Va, NC, Fla, NV & Iowa...and that is too much to believe that the Mitt will win all of them. Thanks goodness, only 28 more days of Mitt-lies.

    October 9, 2012 07:09 am at 7:09 am |
  6. danita

    President Obama touted it in 2010 as evidence "manufacturing jobs are coming back to the United States,” but two years later, a Michigan hybrid battery plant built with $150 million in taxpayer funds is putting workers on furlough before a single battery has been produced.

    October 9, 2012 07:20 am at 7:20 am |
  7. Jeff from Columbus

    This race is doing down to the wire. The bad news for Obama is Romney has the momentum. The good news is there's almost a month to go in the race. Lots of time for something to happen.

    October 9, 2012 07:22 am at 7:22 am |
  8. VoteHimOut

    Obama is able to campaign well with Hollywood and big bird. Any questions?

    October 9, 2012 07:23 am at 7:23 am |
  9. ChiefGunner

    Are We Back To Liking the Rigged Polls Today ~ You just don't get it. The polls are still skewed in favor of Obama but he is losing anyway.

    October 9, 2012 07:24 am at 7:24 am |
  10. Jake

    If Romney wins, you might have elected GWB and Cheney again. Romney and Ryan represents everything those two represented during our worst times in history. Wars, tax cuts and breaks for the rich and corporations is what we will see. Goodbye Medicare and Social Security, two outstanding great social programs for those who have worked hard and paid much into it. Privatization is what GWB tried before with Social Security, it's not heresay, but fact for anyone to see. How anybody in their right mind can vote to return to those disasterous days is simply beyond beliefs. Are we a nation that enjoys misery? If they win, that is what will happen once deregulation and privatization will bring.

    October 9, 2012 07:28 am at 7:28 am |
  11. Bill

    Sorry but any poll that is conducted by phone is no longer valid! Who under 40 owns a landline phone these days? And cell phones are unlisted!

    October 9, 2012 07:31 am at 7:31 am |
  12. sanityisrare

    This kind of turnaround is very unusual...but probably correct...BO got his ass handed to him in the debate...and will lose the next time around...Benghazi cover-up will do him in....Biden is quite frankly is toast....

    October 9, 2012 07:31 am at 7:31 am |
  13. crazeelegs

    These close poll numbers will only help Democrats and President Obama supporters to be more energized and see that they will get out in force to vote for the president. Those in the GOP have being said that there will be less voters from the Dems. They are merely hoping that they will not turn out. Voters WILL be out to vote FOR President Obama b/c they have seen the alternative–the Mitt– and they sure as heck don't want him anywhere near the WH. The GOP has and will have their base out in force–b/c they have been fed a steady diet of "hate" that the Republicans have promoted from President Obama's first day in office. The GOP tactics are in desperation and will not work. Americans are now more informed than they ever have been.

    October 9, 2012 07:40 am at 7:40 am |
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