Two very different polls in battle for White House
October 8th, 2012
04:12 PM ET
2 years ago

Two very different polls in battle for White House

Washington (CNN) - Two national polls released Monday suggest Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney got a bounce out of last week's first presidential debate, though they differ on how much of a bump the GOP nominee received after his performance in Denver.

According to a Pew Research Center survey released Monday afternoon, 49% of likely voters say they back Romney, with 45% supporting President Barack Obama. The survey was conducted October 4-7, the four days after last Wednesday's first presidential debate in Denver, Colorado. Romney's four-point advantage is within the survey's sampling error.

– Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

– Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

In Pew's previous poll, conducted in mid-September, the president had a 51%-43% lead among likely voters.

Among registered voters, Obama and Romney were both at 46% in the Pew survey released Monday. In mid-September Obama was at 51% and Romney was at 42% among registered voters.

Meanwhile, Gallup's latest daily tracking poll of registered voters, also released Monday afternoon, indicates the president with a 50%-45% advantage over Romney. The president's edge is within the survey's sampling error. The poll was conducted October 1-7, both before and after the debate.

Early Monday Gallup released a breakdown of its previous tracking poll, which was conducted September 30-October 6. The survey indicated that Obama held a 50%-45% advantage over Romney from September 30-October 2, the three days leading up to last Wednesday's presidential debate, and that Romney and Obama were deadlocked at 47% each in the three days after the debate, from October 4-6.

Responding to the Pew poll, an Obama campaign official pointed to a shift in the party identification percentages used in Pew's mid-September poll compared to the poll released Monday.

The earlier survey was composed of 39% Democrats, 29% Republicans and 30% independents, while Monday's poll was comprised of 31% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 30% independents.

"This is far bigger than any one-month change in party ID ever reported by Pew in the past," the Obama campaign official said.

Another representative of the Obama campaign said the "state of the race is what it has been, which is a close and competitive race in key states with a slight lean towards the president."

Meanwhile, a Romney campaign official said the GOP effort was "encouraged by the enthusiasm we are seeing from supporters who are energized, as well as undecided voters who are now giving the Governor a new look." They are "continuing to work hard to bring home persuadable voters," the official said.

The new Gallup Tracking poll questioned approximately 2,200 registered voters nationwide by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

The Pew Research center poll questioned 1,112 likely voters by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

CNN's Jim Acosta and Dan Lothian contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls
soundoff (363 Responses)
  1. Are We Back To Liking the Rigged Polls Today

    Oh, I am missing the days of.............. just last week, when all the righties could talk about were the rigged and skewed polls and how Romney was actually ahead. Now that the polls are in their favor, I guess all is okay with them this week. Tune in next week when Romney says something stupid again, Romney goes down in the polls again, and the righties go back to hating the polls again. Republicans: Seriously, you guys are a bunch of head cases. Suspension of all reality is a prerequisite. Stunning ignorance is an understatement.

    October 8, 2012 05:37 pm at 5:37 pm |
  2. NObama

    The debate is proof on how one prepares and leads. Romney studied and did his homework for something that is important and succeeded hands down. Obama was lazy and living his reality show crap, and failed miserably. How do you want your leader to be? No contest, Romney all the way, Obama had his chance, and everything that can be measured is a total Failure!

    October 8, 2012 05:37 pm at 5:37 pm |
  3. Peter

    Shine a light on our President and everyone can see that he has no clue about how wealth is created in the world. As Mr. Kudlow would say, "The Free Enterprise system is the best way to create prosperity". But, tell that to the President and his eyes look like a deer's eyes at night about to be run over by two headlights.

    Why would anyone still vote for 4 more years of this President.

    He has no plans. He has no leadership abilities. He has no clue.

    October 8, 2012 05:37 pm at 5:37 pm |
  4. RandyKC

    All these years I thought it was always better to be honest. Now I see how people are reacting to the Romney debate where he gave Lyin'Ryan a run for his money and I realize that people lie all the time and the lies are not only accepted as truth, but it helps the liars get ahead. I feel like my mom and dad owe me an explanation for the bunk they fed me on the importance of being honest.

    October 8, 2012 05:38 pm at 5:38 pm |
  5. Wade

    The only problem with Gallop is first it was black mailed by Obama and the Justice department to give Obama better numbers and second it is REGISTERED VOTERS which mean nothing and third it uses 2008 demographic data which gave dems a 9 point advantage. The problem with that is DEM registration is WAY WAY WAY down and GOP registration is WAY WAY WAY up! Gallop is useless as a poling company after Obama and holder blackmailed them.

    October 8, 2012 05:39 pm at 5:39 pm |
  6. Jean

    Obama needs to sell his plan. But he won't do that. After complaining that Romney wasn't providing details, Romney turned his opponent upside down by providing detail. Obama fell flat. Romney showed depth of knowledge, understanding of the issues and details about his plan.

    So now how does Obama respond? he calls him a liar. This type of response is exactly what the American people are tired of. Obama needs to convince us that somehow his idea of forward will be different than the 4 years we have been slogging through. "Hope is not a policy and change is not a strategy".

    October 8, 2012 05:39 pm at 5:39 pm |
  7. Peter

    I think we need someone new. Let's give someone else a chance to fix things. We just can't go with 4 more years of this President.

    We owe this change to our kids and grand kids.

    October 8, 2012 05:39 pm at 5:39 pm |
  8. fg54

    Knowing that the current President has been a total failure, why not give a chance to ANOTHER person, who at least has had REAL life experience in different business areas and was a leader. At this moment it is not important where he keeps his money (it's HIS money after all and shouldn't be anybody's business). May be, just may be he has what it takes to save the country. The choice is between a person who showed his total incompetence and inability to lead such a huge and diverse 'community' as US and someone who has significant and real experience. It shouldn't matter if you like this person's character. Personally I do think, that Obama seems to be a 'cool' and likeable person, but that qualification only is not enough for the position he (re)applies for. And he didn't show any other qualifications unfortunately.

    October 8, 2012 05:40 pm at 5:40 pm |
  9. Andrew

    I think polls should be banned. people should choose who to vote for on their own.... not be influenced by what they think everybody else is going to do.

    October 8, 2012 05:40 pm at 5:40 pm |
  10. marg

    For all you HATERS who are hating on Mitt Romney: if you all dont have anything good to say, dont say anything at all. You determines your FUTURE. You are only going to get out of life what you put into your life. You all sounds like a bunch of IGNORANT FOOLS. It seems as though you all know nothing to very little about POLITICS. If you all are AMERICANS, it is very sad you know nothing about OUR GOVERNMENT OBLIGATIONS FOR AMERICANS so that the QUALITY OF LIFE WILL BE/MEET ITS REQUIRED STANDARDS.

    October 8, 2012 05:40 pm at 5:40 pm |
  11. Drew Cutthroat

    Unless you're in the elite 1%, you have no business supporting this lying flip-flopper. The 47% he threw under the bus include many in the military and their families. His tenure at Bain speaks volumes about outsourcing American jobs overseas. How about the fact that he hides his money in the Cayman Islands and in Swiss bank accounts? How un-American is that? Can you say unpatriotic? Sure you can!

    October 8, 2012 05:40 pm at 5:40 pm |
  12. Pedro

    I love how CNN mentions the sampling bias in this survey but doesn't mention it in the surveys that give the President the lead. The samples in all the polls have been off, but some of the PPP, Gallup, and others (including the Pew one mentioned by the Democrat spokesman) have show an unrealistic bias towards Dem party affiliation. The September Pew poll mentioned had a greater disparity between the party's than even existed in 2008 when the Dems had their best turnout EVER.

    October 8, 2012 05:41 pm at 5:41 pm |
  13. Thomas

    itt Romney solely blamed President Barack Obama on Monday for potential defense cuts that Republicans in Congress worked out with the White House and Democrats and left the misimpression that Obama has ignored free trade initiatives.
    A closer look at some of the Republican presidential nominee's statements in his foreign policy speech:

    October 8, 2012 05:42 pm at 5:42 pm |
  14. deaconness

    If only the news system could actually remove the spin created by themselves and both sides, the dust might settle enough that we could see the candidates clearly. I want to know how each might impact in the future of our country. Of course that would stop the politics, lies, inuendo, power plays and prejucdices that the news system loves to defend.

    October 8, 2012 05:42 pm at 5:42 pm |
  15. AD

    Nobody can probably argue that president failed to achieve his own promises from 2008. Hold on, though he recently said that the original plan from 2008 for actually for 8 years and not 4 years... Hmm He forgot to tell that 4 years ago, so I can not trust it anymore. ALso, I see some push back for Romney's plan to make life of reach americans better. Well, you need to understand that the goal is to make everybody in America better, poor, middle class and reach. Also understand that reach people are the ones who know how to lead the contry. SO, if you fight against them, you fight against America's prosperity.

    October 8, 2012 05:42 pm at 5:42 pm |
  16. Jrdz

    Wow dose this country want to go back to the same old failed crap under W again maybe this time they will totally destroy the economy! Come on people wake the F-Up Already. Mittens will say anything to win the man flip flops so much if you hooked cables up to him you could power a big city for weeks.

    October 8, 2012 05:44 pm at 5:44 pm |
  17. NoTax

    After Romni victory, the majority of the libs are going to clean out of my country. Good

    October 8, 2012 05:44 pm at 5:44 pm |
  18. Ian

    Nate says, "To CNN: Way to bury the lead.

    I do not know who will win. Apparently it will be very close. I will probably go for Romney fellas. So let the hate begin. Which is what I deserve for posting on CNN."

    "Probably go for Romney?".........If it wasn't clear cut and decided for you months ago (let alone now!), you haven't been paying attention and YOU SHOULD NOT VOTE AT ALL !

    October 8, 2012 05:44 pm at 5:44 pm |
  19. noteasilyswayed

    You partisan hacks crack me up! Both sides do the same thing..... now the Obama people are questioning the make-up of the Pew poll; while the Republicans now say that these results are no longer "rigged" because they show Romney in the lead..... I guess if Romney gets elected, the Democrats will do the same thing to him that the Republicans have been doing to Obama for the past four years..... no compromising whatsoever, just try to win at all costs. This country is damned and the middle class will continue to lose.

    October 8, 2012 05:45 pm at 5:45 pm |
  20. southernwonder

    people are nice are nice enough to not reject the media generated perception that romney debated better with lies.

    October 8, 2012 06:29 pm at 6:29 pm |
  21. rad666

    Romney: 'Hope Is Not a Strategy'
    With that one statement, he has helped dispel the message of all religions.

    October 8, 2012 06:36 pm at 6:36 pm |
  22. Grahame Rhodes

    I'll tell you this If Romney gets in you will forever be very sorry. It will be just like going back to Bush and you will be in a war before you say "Jack Robinson"

    October 8, 2012 06:41 pm at 6:41 pm |
  23. lucky18

    Guess All Romney had to do is study, while Obama had to run a country! Romney shouldn't get too confortable!

    October 8, 2012 06:46 pm at 6:46 pm |
  24. Anthony

    While I believe polls I believe the President hurt hiself in the debate so now he has less. then a month to go he needs to turn things around in the next two debates and hope JB take it to paul ryan Im very dissappointed in the president he could have done better

    October 8, 2012 06:51 pm at 6:51 pm |
  25. Paul

    Four Words: Battleground states : Electoral College.

    October 8, 2012 06:58 pm at 6:58 pm |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15