Two very different polls in battle for White House
October 8th, 2012
04:12 PM ET
2 years ago

Two very different polls in battle for White House

Washington (CNN) - Two national polls released Monday suggest Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney got a bounce out of last week's first presidential debate, though they differ on how much of a bump the GOP nominee received after his performance in Denver.

According to a Pew Research Center survey released Monday afternoon, 49% of likely voters say they back Romney, with 45% supporting President Barack Obama. The survey was conducted October 4-7, the four days after last Wednesday's first presidential debate in Denver, Colorado. Romney's four-point advantage is within the survey's sampling error.

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In Pew's previous poll, conducted in mid-September, the president had a 51%-43% lead among likely voters.

Among registered voters, Obama and Romney were both at 46% in the Pew survey released Monday. In mid-September Obama was at 51% and Romney was at 42% among registered voters.

Meanwhile, Gallup's latest daily tracking poll of registered voters, also released Monday afternoon, indicates the president with a 50%-45% advantage over Romney. The president's edge is within the survey's sampling error. The poll was conducted October 1-7, both before and after the debate.

Early Monday Gallup released a breakdown of its previous tracking poll, which was conducted September 30-October 6. The survey indicated that Obama held a 50%-45% advantage over Romney from September 30-October 2, the three days leading up to last Wednesday's presidential debate, and that Romney and Obama were deadlocked at 47% each in the three days after the debate, from October 4-6.

Responding to the Pew poll, an Obama campaign official pointed to a shift in the party identification percentages used in Pew's mid-September poll compared to the poll released Monday.

The earlier survey was composed of 39% Democrats, 29% Republicans and 30% independents, while Monday's poll was comprised of 31% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 30% independents.

"This is far bigger than any one-month change in party ID ever reported by Pew in the past," the Obama campaign official said.

Another representative of the Obama campaign said the "state of the race is what it has been, which is a close and competitive race in key states with a slight lean towards the president."

Meanwhile, a Romney campaign official said the GOP effort was "encouraged by the enthusiasm we are seeing from supporters who are energized, as well as undecided voters who are now giving the Governor a new look." They are "continuing to work hard to bring home persuadable voters," the official said.

The new Gallup Tracking poll questioned approximately 2,200 registered voters nationwide by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

The Pew Research center poll questioned 1,112 likely voters by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

CNN's Jim Acosta and Dan Lothian contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls
soundoff (363 Responses)
  1. Name Kelly

    Romney told 27 lies during the debate. How do you debate a pathological liar? I'm sure Obama will fire back during the next debate. Romney is no job creator. Massachusetts was 47th in job creation when he was governor. He hasn't been polling well in that state, gee I wonder why...

    October 8, 2012 07:03 pm at 7:03 pm |
  2. Eric C. Lopez Rosario

    THis is a Right Wing COnspiracy! Who can beleive these polls?!?! Its the RIght WIng Media!!!

    ..... fools.....

    October 8, 2012 07:04 pm at 7:04 pm |
  3. sc3441

    A VOTE FOR ROMNEY IS A VOTE FOR VOUCHERS INSTEAD OF MEDICARE.

    October 8, 2012 07:09 pm at 7:09 pm |
  4. Parthipan

    I still believe Obama is a honest man than Romney, however he failed to explain why we need to choose him for 2nd time.

    I dont believe he has a good understanding that how economy works and i dont see how he can work with republicans if he get elected and that will be resulted in another 4 wasted years

    October 8, 2012 07:14 pm at 7:14 pm |
  5. Hillcrester

    A President Romney will get little or no support from Senate Dems for HIS agenda, as it was clearly stated during his campaign for the GOP nomination. If this hypothetical President Romney embraces Dem ideas, as he did as Governor of MA, then some progress is possible.

    October 8, 2012 07:24 pm at 7:24 pm |
  6. Valar Morghulis

    Where is the surge in the swing states?

    Where are your tax returns Romney?

    Ryan explain how you will save Medicare?

    These two clowns may think they've shifted the debate, but they haven't.

    Vulture/Voucher 2012 going down, down, down.

    October 8, 2012 07:30 pm at 7:30 pm |
  7. MaryM

    The Polls will switch again next week. Kinda like Romney the weather vain

    October 8, 2012 07:34 pm at 7:34 pm |
  8. patiat

    Why on earth would the debate cause such a bump for anyone? It's not like the two candidates are so similar that we just need one little thing to set them apart.

    October 8, 2012 07:38 pm at 7:38 pm |
  9. IO

    A 7 point increase in Republican participants, an 8 point decrease in Democrat participants, but only a 6 point bump for Romney? Sounds like he actually lost a point or two since the previous poll.

    October 8, 2012 07:57 pm at 7:57 pm |
  10. Turnitover

    Romney creates wealth by having YOU give up yours. It's really not hard to figure out.

    October 8, 2012 07:59 pm at 7:59 pm |
  11. Dan

    This is very bad news for America. I'm sure the the wealthy and the extremists are happy though.

    October 8, 2012 08:00 pm at 8:00 pm |
  12. Lauri

    I am completely amazed at the folks that think Obama has done nothing? I guess you aren't old enough to know what a real depression looks like, again, as the result of a war. And, Romney has jobs? Are ya'll going to India? Then he doesn't have a job for YOU.

    October 8, 2012 08:01 pm at 8:01 pm |
  13. bigdoglv

    The left says Mitt won because of lies. They are somewhat correct. The lies from the Obama campaign trying to destroy Romney's character have backfired. When the people finally got a look at the real Romney, they knew that the Obama campaign has been doing the lying. Not paying taxes, responsible for a womans death. Lies. So keep talking about Romney's character, he will be talking about the issues.

    October 8, 2012 08:12 pm at 8:12 pm |
  14. km

    Romney isn't someone who can be trusted,He doesn't inspire confidence at all!

    October 8, 2012 08:16 pm at 8:16 pm |
  15. mike

    Polls are very dangerous to measure a election. Obama will win this election. Romney dosn't have a plan to health the working class and his policies and too close to those of GB. Obama 2012-2016.

    October 8, 2012 08:24 pm at 8:24 pm |
  16. Marie MD

    I don't believe that much in polls but there are still 30 days and the twit doesn't know from one day to another what he is going to think today or in the next hour.
    He is moving to the middle which means he will tick off his tea bagging friends!

    October 8, 2012 08:26 pm at 8:26 pm |
  17. FubarObama

    Wait till the news of the Obama's coverup regarding the Ambasssdor's assassination comes to light.. (if the media even reports it).. Obama's numbers will be below 40%.. He will go down as the worst president in IS history hands down

    October 8, 2012 08:30 pm at 8:30 pm |
  18. Clem

    Mitt is not truthful AT ALL; he is constantly lying. His business was built on the backs of us and he outsourced our jobs like it's just fine. I'm sorry, but who in their right mind would vote for someone who wanted to shut down the auto industry. He was a BULLY at the debate, and I don't like people like that. He didn't care about anyone but himself.

    October 8, 2012 08:32 pm at 8:32 pm |
  19. Intruth24

    So you have essentially three polls that still show Obama in the lead. Romney blantently lied in the first debate and got a boost. Will not happen next time. There are three more debates to go. Obama will win this election and republicans will say it was rigged....Whatever!

    October 8, 2012 08:38 pm at 8:38 pm |
  20. elaine

    I'm voting for Romney, the last 4 yrs suk.

    October 8, 2012 08:43 pm at 8:43 pm |
  21. Anonymous

    Finally America got to see Obama without a telepromptor and without the media covering for him.

    Romney/Ryan 2012

    October 8, 2012 08:45 pm at 8:45 pm |
  22. Romney cares less

    God bless the POTUS!
    Forward not backwards to the dark ages.

    October 8, 2012 08:50 pm at 8:50 pm |
  23. E

    Romney won the debate but he lied and will come back to bite him. He talked of giving $718 billion back to Medicare. I'm the CFO of a health plan, and that money isn't going into the care of seniors if Romney wins. It's going to increase my company's bottom line, to my bonus, and to the stockholders in Medicare HMOs. So I win either way. Obama wins and I get good care when I retire, or Romney wins and I get paid next year.

    October 8, 2012 08:52 pm at 8:52 pm |
  24. Middle

    After 4 years how is it the President can't explain himself? He shouldn't even need debate prep. I find that very telling. Think about it, most of us can talk for hours about our jobs but Obama has to beg Leherer to move on because he can't. Obama may be more prepared next time but it is clear Romney has more knowledge and skill. I think we saw the real Obama and he is in over his head. Frankly I trust Romney more. My kids deserve more. I just don't get it, what has Obama been doing the last 4 years? I can't see how anyone could argue Obama has been a success. I can't vote for a failure, I don't care what party he is from. Romney has my vote.

    October 8, 2012 08:53 pm at 8:53 pm |
  25. demidiot

    Sorry folks, romney is going to be the next president of USA, that is my prediction.

    October 8, 2012 08:54 pm at 8:54 pm |
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