Two very different polls in battle for White House
October 8th, 2012
04:12 PM ET
2 years ago

Two very different polls in battle for White House

Washington (CNN) - Two national polls released Monday suggest Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney got a bounce out of last week's first presidential debate, though they differ on how much of a bump the GOP nominee received after his performance in Denver.

According to a Pew Research Center survey released Monday afternoon, 49% of likely voters say they back Romney, with 45% supporting President Barack Obama. The survey was conducted October 4-7, the four days after last Wednesday's first presidential debate in Denver, Colorado. Romney's four-point advantage is within the survey's sampling error.

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In Pew's previous poll, conducted in mid-September, the president had a 51%-43% lead among likely voters.

Among registered voters, Obama and Romney were both at 46% in the Pew survey released Monday. In mid-September Obama was at 51% and Romney was at 42% among registered voters.

Meanwhile, Gallup's latest daily tracking poll of registered voters, also released Monday afternoon, indicates the president with a 50%-45% advantage over Romney. The president's edge is within the survey's sampling error. The poll was conducted October 1-7, both before and after the debate.

Early Monday Gallup released a breakdown of its previous tracking poll, which was conducted September 30-October 6. The survey indicated that Obama held a 50%-45% advantage over Romney from September 30-October 2, the three days leading up to last Wednesday's presidential debate, and that Romney and Obama were deadlocked at 47% each in the three days after the debate, from October 4-6.

Responding to the Pew poll, an Obama campaign official pointed to a shift in the party identification percentages used in Pew's mid-September poll compared to the poll released Monday.

The earlier survey was composed of 39% Democrats, 29% Republicans and 30% independents, while Monday's poll was comprised of 31% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 30% independents.

"This is far bigger than any one-month change in party ID ever reported by Pew in the past," the Obama campaign official said.

Another representative of the Obama campaign said the "state of the race is what it has been, which is a close and competitive race in key states with a slight lean towards the president."

Meanwhile, a Romney campaign official said the GOP effort was "encouraged by the enthusiasm we are seeing from supporters who are energized, as well as undecided voters who are now giving the Governor a new look." They are "continuing to work hard to bring home persuadable voters," the official said.

The new Gallup Tracking poll questioned approximately 2,200 registered voters nationwide by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

The Pew Research center poll questioned 1,112 likely voters by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

CNN's Jim Acosta and Dan Lothian contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls
soundoff (363 Responses)
  1. paul.c

    who cares,it was the first debate..When th second and third debate come up and romney is decimated by obama,NO ONE will remember the first debate...look at palins popularity after the convention in 2008...We ALL know how that worked out for her now dont we!!

    October 8, 2012 08:54 pm at 8:54 pm |
  2. Katherine

    Romney did not "study and do his homework" to prepare for that debate. He does what every sociopath does, he lies, plain and simple. The problem is that you've got uneducated illiterates swaying in any direction the wind blows and swallowing any bait that sounds good for the moment in time. And these are the very people who will be most adversely affected by republican policies. If it wasn't so sad, it would be funny.

    October 8, 2012 08:58 pm at 8:58 pm |
  3. Henry

    So, Romney supporters what aspect of his economic policies do you most support? An answer that doesn't give details or defaults to Obama bashing will not be taken seriously?

    October 8, 2012 09:01 pm at 9:01 pm |
  4. Anonymous

    one poll matters......not this garbage.

    October 8, 2012 09:04 pm at 9:04 pm |
  5. sinsationalbulk

    Why does everyone give president such a hard time. He is like the captain but he can't win a game without the team (congress). I kinda wanna see what Romney will do because if it fails again like Bush they can't say anything. The diffrenence is the dems in congress will help pass bills not like what they did to Obama. Also we should change rules and they should be fired if not approving country like we would a job. All they do is sit round and do nothing.

    October 8, 2012 09:12 pm at 9:12 pm |
  6. MaryM

    Ryan/Romney 2012-- Because one Republican Economic Crash and two Repub wars per decade is no where nearly enough!

    October 8, 2012 09:18 pm at 9:18 pm |
  7. Faith

    Vote for obama, another four years well deserved

    October 8, 2012 09:20 pm at 9:20 pm |
  8. Doublea

    Gallup showed Obama up by five PRE debate, post debate they have it 47% to 47%... Correction needed CNN, I'm sure this was just an honest mistake.

    October 8, 2012 09:21 pm at 9:21 pm |
  9. sally

    This poll is not trustworthy. The numbers of Republicans and Democrats interviewed have changed dramatically. In my book, it does not reflect a bounce when the data is cooked like this.

    October 8, 2012 09:22 pm at 9:22 pm |
  10. penny wright

    Mitt Romney......soft on Wall Street, tought on Sesame Street!

    October 8, 2012 09:23 pm at 9:23 pm |
  11. Raul smith

    He is just a lier that flip flop all the time. He is a fake with no ideas to call his own. Today he was talking about going to war with all our enemies in the middle east. What part of we are financially broke he does not understand?. It's easy for him to say as none of his boys will fighting any war anytime soon.

    October 8, 2012 09:23 pm at 9:23 pm |
  12. toobadsosad

    Not that I am a great fan of polls, but the latest ones show Romney with quite a bounce. Good for Romney.

    October 8, 2012 09:27 pm at 9:27 pm |
  13. tam

    He may be ahead now, but not for long. Can't wait to see what the "genius" Ryan comes up with in the debate.

    October 8, 2012 09:31 pm at 9:31 pm |
  14. Mary1972

    If people believe all the lies from Romney and elect him, the country deserves another 4 years like under Bush.

    October 8, 2012 09:32 pm at 9:32 pm |
  15. Gene Cole

    President Obama and his minions sound a bit panicky. Not surprising, with 7.8% unemployment, diplomats dying, and the deficit exploding. His last wall was breached in the debate; not only did he look like he did not want to be there, but he had no real defense of his four year tenure. Attempting to act like he is a new candidate with no record works with his MSM bodyguard, but it doesn't work with an adversary who cannot be intimidated.

    It is disturbing to watch the leader of the free world so confused when he tries to defend his administration.

    October 8, 2012 09:34 pm at 9:34 pm |
  16. Brian

    And what is the point of a national poll? It doesn't reflect what is going to happen in the electoral college. Polls from the battleground and close states are the only important ones.

    October 8, 2012 09:34 pm at 9:34 pm |
  17. Mm

    THe timing is off to be a bump. Other polls released today give Obama the upper hand. Not buying that women are supporting Romney based on his policies that work against them.....so not buying off on thee polls.

    October 8, 2012 09:34 pm at 9:34 pm |
  18. nc1965

    According to a Pew Research Center survey released Monday afternoon, 49% of likely voters say they back Romney, with 45% supporting President Barack Obama. The survey was conducted October 4-7

    Gallup's latest daily tracking poll of registered voters, also released Monday afternoon, indicates the president with a 50%-45%

    OK. Which one do you choose to believe?

    October 8, 2012 09:38 pm at 9:38 pm |
  19. SafeJourney

    Mitt Romney is running as fast and he can away from Mitt Romney

    October 8, 2012 10:03 pm at 10:03 pm |
  20. Nowye

    I was so disappointed in Obama. He had the election in the bag until he went and screwed up that debate. It just goes to show you the old saying 'its not over until its over' is really true.

    October 8, 2012 10:20 pm at 10:20 pm |
  21. Doug

    Hey Romney, your pants are on fire. everything you say is a "LIE" do you really think the american people is that stupid, and short on memory. I smell much desperation.

    October 8, 2012 10:28 pm at 10:28 pm |
  22. cheapseats2

    How does a bump this big happen? For the first time, many viewers saw Romney and Obama without the media selectively editing the results.

    October 8, 2012 10:31 pm at 10:31 pm |
  23. Erick

    Let Gary Johnson debate

    October 8, 2012 10:39 pm at 10:39 pm |
  24. Fluffles

    The reaction to this debate shows just how shallow this country is. One candidate is entertaining but gives zero substance, the candidate with substance isn't flashy enough so no one hears him or cares. Even though Romney was flat out lying and changing his stance once again, no one cared because he was "likable". He will continue to lie and lie and the people won't care. It's embarrassing.

    October 8, 2012 10:40 pm at 10:40 pm |
  25. Anonymous

    I don't think both of the candidates are good but think the last four years what you and I (middle class) benifited the gas price went up from $1.72 to $3.72 health insurance gone up etc.. So this time all young people like me going to try Romney.

    October 8, 2012 10:41 pm at 10:41 pm |
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