Two very different polls in battle for White House
October 8th, 2012
04:12 PM ET
2 years ago

Two very different polls in battle for White House

Washington (CNN) - Two national polls released Monday suggest Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney got a bounce out of last week's first presidential debate, though they differ on how much of a bump the GOP nominee received after his performance in Denver.

According to a Pew Research Center survey released Monday afternoon, 49% of likely voters say they back Romney, with 45% supporting President Barack Obama. The survey was conducted October 4-7, the four days after last Wednesday's first presidential debate in Denver, Colorado. Romney's four-point advantage is within the survey's sampling error.

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In Pew's previous poll, conducted in mid-September, the president had a 51%-43% lead among likely voters.

Among registered voters, Obama and Romney were both at 46% in the Pew survey released Monday. In mid-September Obama was at 51% and Romney was at 42% among registered voters.

Meanwhile, Gallup's latest daily tracking poll of registered voters, also released Monday afternoon, indicates the president with a 50%-45% advantage over Romney. The president's edge is within the survey's sampling error. The poll was conducted October 1-7, both before and after the debate.

Early Monday Gallup released a breakdown of its previous tracking poll, which was conducted September 30-October 6. The survey indicated that Obama held a 50%-45% advantage over Romney from September 30-October 2, the three days leading up to last Wednesday's presidential debate, and that Romney and Obama were deadlocked at 47% each in the three days after the debate, from October 4-6.

Responding to the Pew poll, an Obama campaign official pointed to a shift in the party identification percentages used in Pew's mid-September poll compared to the poll released Monday.

The earlier survey was composed of 39% Democrats, 29% Republicans and 30% independents, while Monday's poll was comprised of 31% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 30% independents.

"This is far bigger than any one-month change in party ID ever reported by Pew in the past," the Obama campaign official said.

Another representative of the Obama campaign said the "state of the race is what it has been, which is a close and competitive race in key states with a slight lean towards the president."

Meanwhile, a Romney campaign official said the GOP effort was "encouraged by the enthusiasm we are seeing from supporters who are energized, as well as undecided voters who are now giving the Governor a new look." They are "continuing to work hard to bring home persuadable voters," the official said.

The new Gallup Tracking poll questioned approximately 2,200 registered voters nationwide by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

The Pew Research center poll questioned 1,112 likely voters by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

CNN's Jim Acosta and Dan Lothian contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls
soundoff (363 Responses)
  1. zeyn2010

    So Romney changed his tune in the debate from when he was campaigning and people like him more now? What? We have a lot of people with short term memory I guess!

    October 8, 2012 10:41 pm at 10:41 pm |
  2. H. L. Mencken

    These polls are all over the map and will probably continue as such right up until Nov 6. Let's face the cold hard facts, kids. This is probably going to be pretty close to a rerun of 2000, with things breaking 50-50 on the raw numbers nationwide. It's going to come down to Florida and Pennsylvania...and maybe Ohio. Nobody's undecided anymore.. It will boil down down to how motivated voters are to get out and vote for their guy, and whether the local campaign offices are successful in getting their people to the voiting booths. Ignore the polls. They're absolutely meaningless at this point.

    October 8, 2012 11:06 pm at 11:06 pm |
  3. tvnewton

    Gallup Poll

    Romney wins Debate by largest margin ever recorded!!!

    OUCH!!

    October 8, 2012 11:07 pm at 11:07 pm |
  4. Name. Joanne

    I do not believe it. Romney will loose. Not honest. Poor choice. Flip-flipper. He will not win.

    October 8, 2012 11:07 pm at 11:07 pm |
  5. NameD.C. Swayze

    No more Obama, democrats have oppressed and lied to my people since the trail of tears. Its time for some tough love from our leader.
    ROMNEY/2012

    October 8, 2012 11:19 pm at 11:19 pm |
  6. Lost

    Obama 2012

    October 8, 2012 11:20 pm at 11:20 pm |
  7. jaimie

    Romneyhood ....... Give to the Rich take from the poor

    October 8, 2012 11:21 pm at 11:21 pm |
  8. jaimie

    Romney ..... No honesty No integrity

    October 8, 2012 11:21 pm at 11:21 pm |
  9. jaimie

    Romney and Ryan ...... Laurel and Hardy of the 2012 Presidential Camapign

    October 8, 2012 11:22 pm at 11:22 pm |
  10. chris

    The Ryan/Biden debate is going to be embarrassing to watch. Biden will be eaten alive.

    October 8, 2012 11:26 pm at 11:26 pm |
  11. danieljsf

    I wish I knew what Mitt Romney really stands for and how he would lead as President, but he changes his statements and promises with every difference audience he appears in front of to suit their interests. Being that I see no sincere effort on his part to show me who he really is and what he'd really do to my country, I'm sticking with President Obama who has at least been trying to move things in the right direction with no help or compromise from the partisan-at-all-costs Republicans.

    October 8, 2012 11:27 pm at 11:27 pm |
  12. blake

    Every poll reveals a Romney bump. He is even or ahead in every poll taken since the debate, even with a 5-10% oversampling of Democratic voters in the polls. Ryan will completely destroy and embarass Biden on Thursday. It is going to be a decisive Romney/Ryan victory on November 6th.

    October 8, 2012 11:29 pm at 11:29 pm |
  13. MaryM

    When Ted Kennedy was debating Mitt Romney for the Senate, Mitt Romney said he was Pro Choice,
    Ted Kennedy said he was Pro Choice also and that Mitt Romney was multiple choice and that was back in 1994

    October 8, 2012 11:31 pm at 11:31 pm |
  14. Daboom

    I believe that you guys are missing the point. Those of you that would be easily swayed by one debate, which Romney very cunningly did an about face on many issues, don't have a clue to what is going on. I'm a staunch independent and let me tell you one thing, Romney did nothing to sway me whatsoever. Have we already forgotten that for the past four years that the Republican's have held this nation hostage and refused to make any effort whatsoever to solve any or our countries problems? They have hidden behind claims of "principles" when in fact it was all about winning this election. THEY are the ones with the lowest approval rating in history, not the current president. It is a shame that they have held us hostage and blackmailed us to the point that we all have suffered just so they could get a Republican in the white house. I have never favored one party over the other, but I am ashamed of how our leaders have sabotaged the system. All in the name of power. I just hope whatever the outcome is that we can live with it. I'm not going to vote for someone just because they are a good debater, I want someone with leadership, integrity, honesty and humility to be in office. Someone that actually cares about the American people and not just winning. There is more to America than free enterprise and making money.....and if you don't understand that, then pick up a rifle and join those of us who have served, for we are doing it for all American's not just the fortunate ones.

    October 8, 2012 11:38 pm at 11:38 pm |
  15. LESLIE

    American wake up.You all talking about your grandchildren.if you american want to see there grandchildren.American do you think Mr Romney can ever solve the problem in the middle east let he go ahead.No body can control those middle east people.if Mr Romney should win,american will be crying for there children.Look how many americans are dieing.If mr.romney gets in american will be going to war.American you all want to see your children dieing again and again.You all want to see a world war 3.Black, Latino,will lost healthcare,Middle class will pay more tax,the rich will get away,republican is for the rich.American dont you dont see he him self dont even file his tax untell Obama told him he as to show it to the american people.you trust him.who is Israel that they want american children to come over there to help them to fight awar with Iran,That is what mr Ramney wants.He is a bully type Like mr.Bush.Wake up american.this will be a world war.nobody cant change these people.you could carry the horse to the well but u cant let him drink the water.Let them fight there own war.follow the obama path and save the world.these younger generation are not the same.American will suffer in the middle east.

    October 8, 2012 11:39 pm at 11:39 pm |
  16. Jason

    I'm sticking with President Obama. One debate doesn't change my mind, he's the right choice for the job. These polls are fabricated to the highest.

    October 8, 2012 11:40 pm at 11:40 pm |
  17. Land of Ice and Snow

    Here in Canada we have been paying attention to US politics for more than 200 years. Quite frankly Canadians cannot understand why any American is unable to see the greatness in Mitt Romney. This man possesses every quality that Americans claim they want in a President, and more.

    Obama is certainly a great man, but certainly not a great President.

    Too many Americans treat their political parties and candidates like their favourite varsity sports teams, and have lost all concept of political ideologies and political platforms.

    May the best man win.

    October 8, 2012 11:55 pm at 11:55 pm |
  18. Mack

    I guess only in America can you flat out lie during a debate be declared the winner. It's like sneaking onto the course of a marathon during the last half mile, crossing the finish line and being declared the winner. Our corporate owned media is a disgrace.

    October 9, 2012 12:09 am at 12:09 am |
  19. robere

    What is really amazing. Four years ago they were blocking out space on Mt. Rushmore for this guy. They gave him a Nobel Peace Price after 15 minutes in office. He was hailed as the New Messiah. Now after four years of bumbling he's in a dead heat with a Republican candidate even Republicans are luke warm over. Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your teleprompter....

    October 9, 2012 12:24 am at 12:24 am |
  20. Rick

    Anyone can learn more about Mitt Romney by watching his 47% tape than by watching any debate.

    October 9, 2012 12:28 am at 12:28 am |
  21. osc

    All I can say is that if last week's debate was a boxing match,that was a total nockout,Romney is the one that will really take this country out of this mess,Obama had his chance and has not proven much so is time for a change.

    October 9, 2012 12:29 am at 12:29 am |
  22. Geoff

    No true American would vote for today's republican party. Penguins wouldn't do it and nor should we.

    October 9, 2012 12:32 am at 12:32 am |
  23. Cow

    Every election the media keeps the polls close to get better ratings. It does not matter who is really ahead or by how much. They manufacture numbers to keep things interesting! Free speach is i two edged sword that even aplies to the media. The side affect is a freaked out, stressed, missinformed population. That is one of the prices of freedom!

    October 9, 2012 12:34 am at 12:34 am |
  24. january2454

    Obama is finished. Now that the news is out about how Ambassador Stevens and the other Americans begged the Obama Administration for more security in the days and weeks before the fatal attack, it will be the absolute last straw.

    Stevens was told, "NO" by the Obama administration Stevens was told that he would have to "do more with less." Obama figured he couldn't spend money protecting the US embassy because he needed to buy cell phones for his voting base.

    October 9, 2012 12:38 am at 12:38 am |
  25. RR2012

    I am ready for a change. Romney/Ryan 2012

    October 9, 2012 12:43 am at 12:43 am |
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