Two very different polls in battle for White House
October 8th, 2012
04:12 PM ET
2 years ago

Two very different polls in battle for White House

Washington (CNN) - Two national polls released Monday suggest Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney got a bounce out of last week's first presidential debate, though they differ on how much of a bump the GOP nominee received after his performance in Denver.

According to a Pew Research Center survey released Monday afternoon, 49% of likely voters say they back Romney, with 45% supporting President Barack Obama. The survey was conducted October 4-7, the four days after last Wednesday's first presidential debate in Denver, Colorado. Romney's four-point advantage is within the survey's sampling error.

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In Pew's previous poll, conducted in mid-September, the president had a 51%-43% lead among likely voters.

Among registered voters, Obama and Romney were both at 46% in the Pew survey released Monday. In mid-September Obama was at 51% and Romney was at 42% among registered voters.

Meanwhile, Gallup's latest daily tracking poll of registered voters, also released Monday afternoon, indicates the president with a 50%-45% advantage over Romney. The president's edge is within the survey's sampling error. The poll was conducted October 1-7, both before and after the debate.

Early Monday Gallup released a breakdown of its previous tracking poll, which was conducted September 30-October 6. The survey indicated that Obama held a 50%-45% advantage over Romney from September 30-October 2, the three days leading up to last Wednesday's presidential debate, and that Romney and Obama were deadlocked at 47% each in the three days after the debate, from October 4-6.

Responding to the Pew poll, an Obama campaign official pointed to a shift in the party identification percentages used in Pew's mid-September poll compared to the poll released Monday.

The earlier survey was composed of 39% Democrats, 29% Republicans and 30% independents, while Monday's poll was comprised of 31% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 30% independents.

"This is far bigger than any one-month change in party ID ever reported by Pew in the past," the Obama campaign official said.

Another representative of the Obama campaign said the "state of the race is what it has been, which is a close and competitive race in key states with a slight lean towards the president."

Meanwhile, a Romney campaign official said the GOP effort was "encouraged by the enthusiasm we are seeing from supporters who are energized, as well as undecided voters who are now giving the Governor a new look." They are "continuing to work hard to bring home persuadable voters," the official said.

The new Gallup Tracking poll questioned approximately 2,200 registered voters nationwide by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

The Pew Research center poll questioned 1,112 likely voters by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

CNN's Jim Acosta and Dan Lothian contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls
soundoff (363 Responses)
  1. TomCat

    since 84' ive voted for the winning president. republican 4 times and democrat 3 . if the election was today, i would vote romney. but there is still time for either of them to shine or mess up.
    st.louis

    October 9, 2012 12:51 am at 12:51 am |
  2. McIver3

    Obama calls Romney names because Obama's record is so poor he has to deflect it. For example:

    Obama spent $60 billion tax payers dollars to float GM. They still owe $30 billion and hardly making a profit.
    Obama spent $1.7 Trillion tax payer dollars to fund the ACA. Wait until you get the tax bill.
    Obama hid 20 new taxes in the ACA. One taxes home sales beginning in 2013.
    Obama spent $787 billion on his failed stimulus projects so billionaire buddies like Geroge Soros could profit.
    Obama spent $6 Trillion in 4 years whereas Bush spent $4.9 Trillion in 8 years.
    Obama spent.... Obama spent..... Obama spent.... Do you see a pattern here?

    We owe $5 Trillion to countries like China as Romney tried to explain to Obama.

    Only 49% of the population is paying taxes (and 47% are dependent on goverment programs). Therefore, the 49% are going to pay for Obama's reckless spending policies. A vote for Obama is a vote to head this country to bankrupty.

    October 9, 2012 12:57 am at 12:57 am |
  3. tryfixstupid

    The polls have changed, but the polling hasnt. The polls were off 10% last week and are still off 10% this week!

    October 9, 2012 01:05 am at 1:05 am |
  4. BralenX

    doesn't take much to pull the wool over Americans eyes.

    October 9, 2012 01:11 am at 1:11 am |
  5. Chris

    Democrat here... congrats to mitt romney on his debate.

    October 9, 2012 01:12 am at 1:12 am |
  6. Comen

    No real shock. Barrack Obama is not a Democrat. He is a Socialist. Neither serious Dems nor Reps accept a socialist as being able to correct an economy.

    October 9, 2012 01:21 am at 1:21 am |
  7. joe

    The debates won't change the fact that Romney is anti-women, anti-science, and anti-student.

    October 9, 2012 01:40 am at 1:40 am |
  8. Tim

    Hey Obama, that sound you hear is America waking up and telling you that you have failed.

    October 9, 2012 01:43 am at 1:43 am |
  9. Iamnotfooled

    There are still 2 other Presidential Debates. Let's see what Romney morphs into this time. Sooner or later Americans will figure him out. Panderer – in Chief. He will say or do anything for votes.

    October 9, 2012 01:49 am at 1:49 am |
  10. tenzin

    drop in unemployment is another blow to obama. now he has less people depending on him.

    October 9, 2012 01:52 am at 1:52 am |
  11. norman

    americans you are making mistake if you vote rommey

    October 9, 2012 01:56 am at 1:56 am |
  12. Rancher Chris

    Even the left leaning press is starting to admit to Mitt.....We have a Winner!!!!

    October 9, 2012 02:03 am at 2:03 am |
  13. 66Biker

    When will people learn that self-serving politicians do not care about anyone but themselves and their rich friends. If you aren't one of them, you are just another victim to them.

    October 9, 2012 02:04 am at 2:04 am |
  14. Mciver3

    Since Obama cannot run on his record, he runs his mouth.
    All Obama has done is spend taxpayers money for failed programs like the $787 billion stimulus, $60 billion GM bailout (barely making a profit), and the tax- laden ACA which will cost $1.7 trillion. In 2013 when you sell a house, you will be hit with an ACA tax.
    More taxes to come with Obama!

    October 9, 2012 02:12 am at 2:12 am |
  15. Intruth23

    Wade you are totally clueless. If Dems registration is so down how then are all these senate republican candidates trailing their Democratic opponents. Geez! And if the Gallop is so Jacked up then way do all he other polls show the same thing???
    Really???

    October 9, 2012 02:23 am at 2:23 am |
  16. Luis

    All biased politics aside, in stark contrast to 4 years ago, Romney has changed his position on virtually every major political issue, such as abortion, the auto bailout, the medical reform, taxes, etc. You cannot trust someone like that to lead our nation. Why do you think he was constantly on the defence during the debate?

    October 9, 2012 02:28 am at 2:28 am |
  17. Bruinsfan1969

    Gee, I don't know, maybe the President was busy, ya know, trying to fix 8 years of republican disaster, that he didn't get a chance to prepare for the debate unlike Mittens, who been preparing for the debate for 3 years now.

    October 9, 2012 02:34 am at 2:34 am |
  18. ConfucianScholar

    Obama is finished and he knows it. In his four years he was unable to improve the failing economy. Every job report is "worse than expected" He ignored all campaign promises. Guantanamo is NOT closed. NO ONE has gone to jail for the financial debacle and he went back on his promise to reform campaign finance law. He is going to be voted out of office.

    October 9, 2012 02:57 am at 2:57 am |
  19. josh rogen

    the president's campaign strategy is easy to see - cliches and catch phrases, focus groups and excuses, throw in some push button hate ads and counting on the electorates lack of an ivy league education and government school education easy re-election. and there's a good chance that will work.

    October 9, 2012 04:02 am at 4:02 am |
  20. Anonymous

    Electing Mitt Romney will cost thousand of American lives.

    October 9, 2012 04:18 am at 4:18 am |
  21. Aliwisious Davendander III

    Romney is really going to shine in the next debate when he gets tough on protests in other nations and starts another cold war by spewing red meat and bluster to his base, which he totally abandoned to run against himself in the last debate. How anyone can take Mitt seriously when he has no plan what-so-ever other than not to have any plans at all. All one can do is make assumptions about what his plans will be and no one seems to understand how dangerous it is to assume when it comes to picking a freaking president. All one has to go on with Romney is his past which has been as a terrible govenor who was 47th in job creation and as a vulcher capitalist who's job it was to destroy companies and make a few share holders a lot of money by sending jobs to china. But turning on the television and watching for more than a minute and you can really start to understand where the average american mind is, and its terribly sad.

    October 9, 2012 04:46 am at 4:46 am |
  22. Rick1948

    I sure hope the President gets his act together; he did horribly in the first debate. A Romney presidency combined with Republican control of the house and senate will destroy the middle class in the United States and turn us into just another polluted third World country run by the rich and big business.

    October 9, 2012 05:24 am at 5:24 am |
  23. Jose

    People come together Romney is a liar

    October 9, 2012 05:36 am at 5:36 am |
  24. demovsemperor

    I notice most political stories are under the Political Ticker banner, where hard comments about Obama by a democrat like myself get censored.

    October 9, 2012 05:47 am at 5:47 am |
  25. Jason

    Mitt Romney's a liar. He wins debates by not telling the truth about anything. If he wins, you get what you deserve.

    October 9, 2012 05:59 am at 5:59 am |
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