Two very different polls in battle for White House
October 8th, 2012
04:12 PM ET
2 years ago

Two very different polls in battle for White House

Washington (CNN) - Two national polls released Monday suggest Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney got a bounce out of last week's first presidential debate, though they differ on how much of a bump the GOP nominee received after his performance in Denver.

According to a Pew Research Center survey released Monday afternoon, 49% of likely voters say they back Romney, with 45% supporting President Barack Obama. The survey was conducted October 4-7, the four days after last Wednesday's first presidential debate in Denver, Colorado. Romney's four-point advantage is within the survey's sampling error.

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In Pew's previous poll, conducted in mid-September, the president had a 51%-43% lead among likely voters.

Among registered voters, Obama and Romney were both at 46% in the Pew survey released Monday. In mid-September Obama was at 51% and Romney was at 42% among registered voters.

Meanwhile, Gallup's latest daily tracking poll of registered voters, also released Monday afternoon, indicates the president with a 50%-45% advantage over Romney. The president's edge is within the survey's sampling error. The poll was conducted October 1-7, both before and after the debate.

Early Monday Gallup released a breakdown of its previous tracking poll, which was conducted September 30-October 6. The survey indicated that Obama held a 50%-45% advantage over Romney from September 30-October 2, the three days leading up to last Wednesday's presidential debate, and that Romney and Obama were deadlocked at 47% each in the three days after the debate, from October 4-6.

Responding to the Pew poll, an Obama campaign official pointed to a shift in the party identification percentages used in Pew's mid-September poll compared to the poll released Monday.

The earlier survey was composed of 39% Democrats, 29% Republicans and 30% independents, while Monday's poll was comprised of 31% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 30% independents.

"This is far bigger than any one-month change in party ID ever reported by Pew in the past," the Obama campaign official said.

Another representative of the Obama campaign said the "state of the race is what it has been, which is a close and competitive race in key states with a slight lean towards the president."

Meanwhile, a Romney campaign official said the GOP effort was "encouraged by the enthusiasm we are seeing from supporters who are energized, as well as undecided voters who are now giving the Governor a new look." They are "continuing to work hard to bring home persuadable voters," the official said.

The new Gallup Tracking poll questioned approximately 2,200 registered voters nationwide by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

The Pew Research center poll questioned 1,112 likely voters by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

CNN's Jim Acosta and Dan Lothian contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls
soundoff (363 Responses)
  1. wildman

    na,na,na,na, hey, hey,hey, goodbye!!!!!

    October 8, 2012 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  2. Anonymous

    You can open a Swiss bank account and a Luxembourg bank account.

    October 8, 2012 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  3. Dig Dreta

    Yayyy....Go Big Government, Socialist Republicans!

    October 8, 2012 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  4. rla

    AW reality set in and the libreral /progressive babies are all out there spinning and hating- Sorry Romney in a landslide.... Everyone was just waiting fr an excuse to vote romney

    October 8, 2012 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  5. Eric

    The best reason to vote for Romney? The liberal meltdown after he wins will be hillarious, especially on MSNBC. Tune in there to watch Chris Mathews soak himself in gas and set himself on fire.

    October 8, 2012 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  6. JL

    I don't really see how this is a "bump" so much as it is votes trending Romney's way. Clinton and his "Nobody cares or works harder than Barack" speech could be said to have provided a temporary "bump," but Romney's performance at the debate just proved to everyone that he is not who Obama and the media said he was. He didn't look like a stiff, uncaring, rich, wife murdering villian at all. He looked like a real president. Obama looked like a whiny school kid who forgot to study for his exam.

    October 8, 2012 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  7. tampajoey

    After 2 more debates Obama himself will be voting for Romney.

    October 8, 2012 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  8. Mom3

    Go Romney/Ryan!!!! Although I am not surprised but just disappointed that the liberals are stealing the Romney/Ryan yard signs in my area in an effort to stifle our choice – nice try and really classy! Won't work you fools.

    October 8, 2012 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  9. mike

    Oh yeah Mitt really cares about the people of the USA. So does Obama. You think either one of these liars gives a fuuuck about anyone but themselves and the corporations and individuals that help them buy their way into office? Yeah many of you do and you are stupid. Why would someone pay hundreds of millions of dollars to get elected to an office that pays whatever it does like 500K a year? Because they will make it back 10 fold for them and their buddies.

    October 8, 2012 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  10. jinx88

    LMAO! Repugs should know polls are not accurate kinda like what comes out of Mittens mouth.

    October 8, 2012 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  11. Dig Dreta

    Big Government, Socialist Republicans:

    Big Government:
    The US spends more on it's military than the next 19 biggest nations combined.

    Socialism:
    10% have 90% of the money without doing 90% of the work. That's how all socialist ventures end. Keep kissing backsides of the rich.

    October 8, 2012 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  12. The Real Tom Paine

    So, 2 polls indicate a bump, and all the people who were screaming about oversampling of Democrats are now feeling vindicated? There are 3 more debates, and the assumption that Romney is going to win on the basis of debate performances is more than premature. Ryan's debate is critical, since he is one of the reasons Romney trailed in teh first place, and he needs to explain how he is going to implement an agenda that does nothing for the middle class. Obama will not amke the same mistake again, and reminding people of the differences between the Romney who was a severe conservative and the the one who now says he will not give the wealthy tax cuts will eb the key. Romney needs to explain why he has abandoned every position he has taken over the last 2 years in the final 6 weeks of the general election.

    October 8, 2012 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  13. lobo joe

    Willard- Just one question, " Where are the tax returns."

    October 8, 2012 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  14. pc

    In a joint study by the Joan Shorenstein Center on Press, Politics and Public Policy at Harvard University and the Project for Excellence in Journalism, the authors found disparate treatment by the three major cable channels of Republican and Democratic candidates during the earliest five months of presidential primaries in 2007: "The CNN programming studied tended to cast a negative light on Republican candidates—by a margin of three-to-one. Four-in-ten stories (41%) were clearly negative while just 14% were positive and 46% were neutral. The network provided negative coverage of all three main candidates with McCain faring the worst (63% negative) and Romney faring a little better than the others only because a majority of his coverage was neutral. It's not that Democrats, other than Obama, fared well on CNN either. Nearly half of the Illinois Senator's stories were positive (46%), vs. just 8% that were negative. But both Clinton and Edwards ended up with more negative than positive coverage overall. So while coverage for Democrats overall was a bit more positive than negative, that was almost all due to extremely favorable coverage for Obama."[

    October 8, 2012 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  15. TED

    If Romney win it will be so fun to hear all the Republicans crying about how he never keep his promise . He will not have the time to work with healthcare it will stay the way Obama put it , he will let the military run operation overseas with no presidential interference ,
    all lol he will bring the Job numbers up by HIRING EVERYONE BACK THAT HE FIRED.

    October 8, 2012 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  16. suzibee

    I am telling everyone who wants Obama to be president again that you MUST MUST MUST vote....and you MUST MUST MUST make sure that everyone votes. If I wake up the day after the election and Romney is our President I will just die...
    and so will a lot of you because of his health policies....he lied the other night in the debate about many things..and he flip- flopped all over the place – those who think he did a great job didn't listen or haven't been paying attention to him the last few months – what a liar! He ONLY wants to win, he doesn't care about you or me. Yes, YOU, members of his own party....
    He is really good at a con game and pulling the wool over your eyes. Are you listening !!! VOTE OBAMA!!!!!!!!!!!!

    October 8, 2012 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  17. Painless Kolob extraction for FREE

    It gonna be great either way, if obama gets in ...great! If Mitt gets it I will laugh when he makes you all regret what you have not learned the last 100 years. Slaves can be kept with less than a ribbon of string ....its called stockholm syndrome. Do you miss Bush? of course you do!

    October 8, 2012 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  18. us1000

    if romney agrees with obama's views on economy, job growth and social issues, romney has chances to win the election but we are never sure what romney will do after, if he wins, he may go opposite ways and chat american people. so american people need to be more careful and watchful on romney.'s sincereity, to find out whether romney just want to be the president and not for serving or leading the people.

    October 8, 2012 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  19. judy

    id like to bump mittens right on top of his lying head. Just shows you how stupid repos are or how bigoted. They would rather have a lying tax evading draft dodging out sorcing only concerned about the rich for prez. Forward

    October 8, 2012 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  20. 1doctor

    BUT WAIT!~!! Aren't these polls biased...or the numbers were cooked? Repugnicans are sad, small-minded, narrow-minded people.

    October 8, 2012 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  21. Sage

    Repubnuts, you are going to get what you deserved. LOL. Liberal Mitt finally surfaces. Rich folks, get ready to party.

    October 8, 2012 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  22. sam

    To Holy Tighty . . .
    Cus you ain't got no money!!!

    October 8, 2012 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  23. Scott

    Not surprised one bit. Romney had BoBo for lunch at the debate. Can't wait until Ryan eviscerates Bumbling Biden :)

    Scott
    p.s. I wonder how long before Communist New Network turns off the comments on this article?

    October 8, 2012 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  24. lisasc

    No matter who wins this election the country will be divided. Divided by the politicians, the media and big money on both sides. What a shame.

    October 8, 2012 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  25. Wondering Wanda

    The Repubs complaint–the polls change–If the President would complain it would be called whining about the poll results
    You don't hear the First Lady telling people to stop talking about her husband. The truth is I would like to have a different camera angle to understand Romney rushed back to his stand the night of the debate–relook at the tape–he had a small stack of cards-What was on those cards?

    Recently read an article about him insulting another country by saying he did not want to be like them–Help me out-which country is that–I pray he isn't "God' choice for the USA–it will be a sad day to have a liar for a president. No one will trust him–

    I

    October 8, 2012 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
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