Two very different polls in battle for White House
October 8th, 2012
04:12 PM ET
2 years ago

Two very different polls in battle for White House

Washington (CNN) - Two national polls released Monday suggest Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney got a bounce out of last week's first presidential debate, though they differ on how much of a bump the GOP nominee received after his performance in Denver.

According to a Pew Research Center survey released Monday afternoon, 49% of likely voters say they back Romney, with 45% supporting President Barack Obama. The survey was conducted October 4-7, the four days after last Wednesday's first presidential debate in Denver, Colorado. Romney's four-point advantage is within the survey's sampling error.

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In Pew's previous poll, conducted in mid-September, the president had a 51%-43% lead among likely voters.

Among registered voters, Obama and Romney were both at 46% in the Pew survey released Monday. In mid-September Obama was at 51% and Romney was at 42% among registered voters.

Meanwhile, Gallup's latest daily tracking poll of registered voters, also released Monday afternoon, indicates the president with a 50%-45% advantage over Romney. The president's edge is within the survey's sampling error. The poll was conducted October 1-7, both before and after the debate.

Early Monday Gallup released a breakdown of its previous tracking poll, which was conducted September 30-October 6. The survey indicated that Obama held a 50%-45% advantage over Romney from September 30-October 2, the three days leading up to last Wednesday's presidential debate, and that Romney and Obama were deadlocked at 47% each in the three days after the debate, from October 4-6.

Responding to the Pew poll, an Obama campaign official pointed to a shift in the party identification percentages used in Pew's mid-September poll compared to the poll released Monday.

The earlier survey was composed of 39% Democrats, 29% Republicans and 30% independents, while Monday's poll was comprised of 31% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 30% independents.

"This is far bigger than any one-month change in party ID ever reported by Pew in the past," the Obama campaign official said.

Another representative of the Obama campaign said the "state of the race is what it has been, which is a close and competitive race in key states with a slight lean towards the president."

Meanwhile, a Romney campaign official said the GOP effort was "encouraged by the enthusiasm we are seeing from supporters who are energized, as well as undecided voters who are now giving the Governor a new look." They are "continuing to work hard to bring home persuadable voters," the official said.

The new Gallup Tracking poll questioned approximately 2,200 registered voters nationwide by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

The Pew Research center poll questioned 1,112 likely voters by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

CNN's Jim Acosta and Dan Lothian contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls
soundoff (363 Responses)
  1. Mountaintop

    Republicans are living in a mountain called the "bullsh** mountain". From this mountain everything looks so small and picturesque that they have no idea of reality. First learn to do math. Let's seek, 1. There is NEVER a tax hike for middle and poor in the democratic plan, only for the rich people like Mitty will be paying more taxes. 2. Romney makes promises and flowery speeches but never give out details, because he doesn't have any. He can make the below intelligence people happy with his hogwash, but there is no integrity on the solutions he proposes. 3. Romeny does not have clear international picture of the time and era we live in. A blinded president like this can completely destroy us. Just like Mr. Bush did. Another term of Republicans will throw this country another 50 yrs back at least.

    October 8, 2012 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  2. DG

    I will definitely vote for Obama; however, I don't know what he was thinking by going into the debate so unprepared. He should have at the very least called out Romney on his gross lies and flip flops. What was he or his advisors thinking - that they should just run out the clock. They better get hoppin at the next debate.

    October 8, 2012 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  3. jon

    "Romney lie #1. "I don't have a $5 trillion tax cut." Romney flatly lied about the cost of his proposal to cut income-tax rates across the board by another 20 percent (undercutting even the low rates of the Bush tax cuts). Independent economists at the Tax Policy Center have shown that the price tag for those cuts is $360 billion in the first year, a cost that extrapolates to $5 trillion over a decade.

    Romney lie #2. "I will not reduce the taxes paid by high-income Americans." Romney has claimed that he will pay for his tax cuts by closing a variety of loopholes and deductions. The factual problem? Romney hasn't named a single loophole he's willing to close; worse, there's no way to offset $5 trillion in tax cuts even if you get rid of the entire universe of deductions for the wealthy that Romney has not put off the table (like the carried interest loophole or the 15 percent capital gains rate.) The Tax Policy Center report concludes that Romney's proposal would create a "net tax cut for high-income tax payers and a net tax increase for lower- and or middle-income taxpayers." Moreover, some of Romney's tax cuts are micro-targeted at American dynasties, particularly his proposal to eliminate the estate tax, which would reduce his own sons' tax burden by tens of millions of dollars.

    Romney lie #3. "We've got 23 million people out of work or [who have] stopped looking for work in this country." Romney is lying for effect. The nation's crisis of joblessness is bad, but not 23 million bad. The official figure is 12.5 million unemployed. An additional 2.6 million Americans have stopped looking for jobs. How does Romney gin up his eye-popping 23 million figure? He counts more than 8 million wage earners who hold part-time jobs as also being "out of work."

    Romney lie #4. Obamacare "puts in place an unelected board that's going to tell people ultimately what kind of treatments they can have." Romney is reviving Sarah Palin's old death panels lie here. Obamacare does establish an Independent Payment Advisory Board to help constrain the growth of Medicare spending. The body has no authority to dictate the practices of the private insurance marketplace. And the law also makes explicit that this body is banned from rationing care or limiting medical benefits to seniors.

    Romney lie #5. "Pre-existing conditions are covered under my plan." In the biggest whopper of the night, Romney suggested that his health care proposal would guarantee coverage to Americans with pre-existing conditions. This is just not true. Under Romney, if you have a pre-existing condition and have been unable to obtain insurance coverage or if you have had to drop coverage for more than 90 days because you lost your job or couldn't afford the premiums, you would be sh it out of luck. Insurance companies could continue to discriminate and deny you coverage, as even Romney's top adviser conceded after the debate was over."

    October 8, 2012 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  4. deek

    OK, so you all say Romney is a liar for making promises he won't keep during the debate. If you are using that as the metric, then Obama is the liar. During his debates he said he would close Gitmo (liar), He would reduce the defit by 1/2 (liar), he wouldn't run again if he didn't turn around the economy (liar), he would bring the unemployment rate down to 5.4% (liar). You can't tell if Romney is lying until he doesn't come through with his promises.

    October 8, 2012 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  5. Wondering Wanda

    I pray everyday that Romney isn't "God's" choice for America

    October 8, 2012 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  6. llatpoh

    Americans are finally opening up their eyes to the TRUTH about Obama... Independents like me who voted for him in 2008 will not be fooled again!

    October 8, 2012 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  7. Anonymous

    CNN will report this race as being evern whether you like it or not. A close race is good for ratings. These guys have special announcers and everything. Its like a sporting even for them - a month long superbowl. Totally irrisponsible. You wonder how we got the Iraq war, look no futher than news outlets like CNN, who was to busy trying to manufacture balanced news than reporting on the facts.

    October 8, 2012 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  8. Mark Johnson

    Romney won the debate on style points, however President Obama won on policy. Policy trumps style.

    October 8, 2012 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  9. California Gary

    Say there feelingood......Kerry got a big bump after beating GWB in the first debate too......but we never got a President Kerry. I wouldn't start counting your chickens just because you found an egg. A month is an eternity in presidential politics.......one debate does not a president make.

    October 8, 2012 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  10. Pete

    What a great message for the kids: LIE, CHEAT, STEAL, LIE some more - and you get ahead in life!

    Mitt Romney is such a great role model!

    October 8, 2012 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  11. RLP

    going from Obama +8 to Romney +4 is called a "bump"? Thats a 12 point swing, CNN has to play it down at all costs

    October 8, 2012 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  12. tee1227

    what the poll would not tell this is today poll in VA and this is why Obama will win VA Tim Kaine has now broken open a 51-44 advantage over George Allen, And remember African Americans make up a very large voting block in that state and Larry J. Sabato said on TV it`s gonna be very very hard for Mitt to win VA and don`t forget about the women vote for Obama there to.

    October 8, 2012 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  13. walternowotny

    HOLLY TIGHTLY...Go ahead....deposit your welfare check at Credit Suisse

    October 8, 2012 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  14. Scott in Michigan

    Finally a poll that nearly sampled Republicans, Dems, and Independents somewhat realistically. This should surprise nobody. With Independents leaning heavy Romney, this should be expected. The Big O is in trouble and he knows it.

    October 8, 2012 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  15. Practical American

    Funny... this is the same poll being accused of being SKEWED a week ago. The Washington Post highlights the problem with this poll and tomorrow, surely there will be a poll the opposite direction. These polls have become meaningless.

    That pesky party ID question: The Pew sample for this poll was 36 percent Republican, 31 percent Democratic and 30 percent independent. That’s a major shift from the organization’s September poll which was 29 percent Republican, 39 percent Democratic and 30 percent independent. In the 2010 election, the electorate was 36 percent Republican, 36 percent Democratic and 27 percent independent, according to exit polling. In 2008, 39 percent of the electorate identified as Democrats while 32 percent said they were Republicans and 29 percent said they were independents.

    October 8, 2012 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  16. Benjamin

    Clint Eastwood is a prophet. The empty chair is true.

    October 8, 2012 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  17. Name

    When your children go off to fight the next war and some don't return what will be said then? I'm just asking everyone to look at the big picture. Who gonna pay for war? Those of you with such hateful comments. God bless u and America! Vote for life,liberty and happiness. Not for hate.

    October 8, 2012 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  18. midwestmatt

    Romney believes half of America is a bunch of whining victims who live solely off the government.

    Oh wait...no he doesn't.

    Never mind that he was WRONG ALL ALONG.

    October 8, 2012 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  19. Tree

    Poll are nothing......people are just looking at the debate. Romney will never be President. More will be reveal.......

    October 8, 2012 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  20. sam

    Well, the Pied Piper is losing some of his followers!!! But look at the good side, Mr O will be on the dinner circuit soon, raking in the money from the Hollywood stars. He'll love it, since it's always been about him, noone else..

    Mr Mirror Man!!!!

    October 8, 2012 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  21. james

    now the polls are not cooked any more? Oh, wait, Mitt is too good (lying) to be spun.

    October 8, 2012 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  22. deek

    How is Riomney a tax cheat? He released his taxes and they were on the up & up. He donated 30% of his salary to charities. Joe Biden donated $300.00. I donated more than that and I don't even get to claim it because I no longer can itemize because of losing my home.

    October 8, 2012 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  23. readon

    Now, it's too bad the Republicans don't believe the polls!!!

    October 8, 2012 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  24. Mark

    and remember all the actual TAX CHEATS Obama has hired. Anyone who even thinks Obama has been a good president is an absolute moron. Lying Chicago politiker and just a puppet for folks who hate America, who think it's ok to kill babies, who think you creat jobs by taking people's money and distributing to a bunch of lazy good for nothing loafers. This man is bad for America folks – VOTE ROMNEY, any vote for Obama is a vote for the destruction of our country.

    October 8, 2012 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  25. Mr. Moderate

    Thanks to the electoral college national polls are meaningless. What's going on in the swing states. The path to victory for Romney is still pretty narrow.

    October 8, 2012 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
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