Two very different polls in battle for White House
October 8th, 2012
04:12 PM ET
2 years ago

Two very different polls in battle for White House

Washington (CNN) - Two national polls released Monday suggest Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney got a bounce out of last week's first presidential debate, though they differ on how much of a bump the GOP nominee received after his performance in Denver.

According to a Pew Research Center survey released Monday afternoon, 49% of likely voters say they back Romney, with 45% supporting President Barack Obama. The survey was conducted October 4-7, the four days after last Wednesday's first presidential debate in Denver, Colorado. Romney's four-point advantage is within the survey's sampling error.

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In Pew's previous poll, conducted in mid-September, the president had a 51%-43% lead among likely voters.

Among registered voters, Obama and Romney were both at 46% in the Pew survey released Monday. In mid-September Obama was at 51% and Romney was at 42% among registered voters.

Meanwhile, Gallup's latest daily tracking poll of registered voters, also released Monday afternoon, indicates the president with a 50%-45% advantage over Romney. The president's edge is within the survey's sampling error. The poll was conducted October 1-7, both before and after the debate.

Early Monday Gallup released a breakdown of its previous tracking poll, which was conducted September 30-October 6. The survey indicated that Obama held a 50%-45% advantage over Romney from September 30-October 2, the three days leading up to last Wednesday's presidential debate, and that Romney and Obama were deadlocked at 47% each in the three days after the debate, from October 4-6.

Responding to the Pew poll, an Obama campaign official pointed to a shift in the party identification percentages used in Pew's mid-September poll compared to the poll released Monday.

The earlier survey was composed of 39% Democrats, 29% Republicans and 30% independents, while Monday's poll was comprised of 31% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 30% independents.

"This is far bigger than any one-month change in party ID ever reported by Pew in the past," the Obama campaign official said.

Another representative of the Obama campaign said the "state of the race is what it has been, which is a close and competitive race in key states with a slight lean towards the president."

Meanwhile, a Romney campaign official said the GOP effort was "encouraged by the enthusiasm we are seeing from supporters who are energized, as well as undecided voters who are now giving the Governor a new look." They are "continuing to work hard to bring home persuadable voters," the official said.

The new Gallup Tracking poll questioned approximately 2,200 registered voters nationwide by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

The Pew Research center poll questioned 1,112 likely voters by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

CNN's Jim Acosta and Dan Lothian contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls
soundoff (363 Responses)
  1. commenter2222

    "Pew Polls" is incorrect. The headline should be "New Polls". How much else of this article have errors?

    October 8, 2012 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  2. LindaPP

    God help us all if Robme becomes Pres. We will be at war with Iran and all this talk about the economy and jobs will be moot!!! I am sick of all the a**holes who support the Republican party. Where did all of the stupid people in this country come from????????

    October 8, 2012 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  3. slider5

    Now that the polls are a lot closer, the Libs are finding new ways to bash Romney. Obama had 4 years to improve the economy and country. Now is it someone else's turn. If you want to see how Obamacare (Socialized Medicine) is worked out – visit Europe. They pay an outrages amount of taxes – 50-60% is the norm

    October 8, 2012 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  4. JoeH

    I can't believe for the first time in my life that I am going to vote Republican! I am ashamed yes but we cannot take another 4 years of Obama. I am sorry people, I had high hopes like you but the job of President is way too important for on the job training.

    October 8, 2012 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  5. n

    Keep on polling until the Romney numbers say what you want them to say. How desperate are these rich slime buckets that that are willing to fudge the poll numbers to favor Romney in spite of the resent unemployment numbers of which is now under 8%. (7.8%) Romney has nothing to run on because his whole campaign was based on the unemployment numbers being over 8%. Now to the media, republican leadership and Romney, his numbers concerning the debates in which he totally lied are more valid then the tangible unemployment rate of 7.8%. Come on america . . . get a clue already.

    October 8, 2012 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  6. jinx88

    Repugs that think Romney is even with Obama goto Fox news, Romney post debate bounce is gone. Obama back up by 5% points 50 – 45.

    October 8, 2012 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  7. Wes Scott

    The only poll that counts is the one taken on voting day. The rest are merely snapshops based upon who happens to be polled as a sample, and most are rarely accurate.

    A formal complaint has been filed with the US Department of Justice asking for an investigation into Romney’s apparent violation of the False Statements Act that applies to federal office seekers. Substantial evidence contradicts Romney’s claim that he was not “active” in Bain Capital in “any” way after 1999. If this is true, then Romney will either be forced to bow out, or if elected, resign the Presidency in disgrace.

    But, the way corporations own and run our government it is entirely possible that nothing will happen, unlike if you or I violated laws and our violations were known to law enforcement. We have the best government that money can buy!

    October 8, 2012 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  8. jose

    I think people are starting to notice the Emperor has no clothes. And all this failed administration can do is blame other people.

    October 8, 2012 04:50 pm at 4:50 pm |
  9. mitch

    @Mark, which God? Mormoney's god lives on Kolob. Probably a bit different than your version, genius.

    October 8, 2012 04:50 pm at 4:50 pm |
  10. Wondering Wanda

    There is an article about the Red and Blue cups–free coffee-People know that the President is trying to help all Americans and are benefitting from the healthcare act –yet, won't vote for him. I hope these numbers are correct 1in 6 americans have pre-exist conditions– Read the article-very enlighting

    October 8, 2012 04:50 pm at 4:50 pm |
  11. i'm confused

    The fluid nature of Mittens The Flip Flopping Clown's opinions clearly demonstrates how low of a priority personal integrity is to him... If nobody can count on Mittens to not just change his mind tomorrow about whatever he is claiming his opinions are today, shouldn't the great majority of our society consider this compulsive liar to be entirely unelectable regardless of how drastically his "plans for America" coincidentally just happened to change the very minute he stepped on stage at the first Presidential debate of this election???

    October 8, 2012 04:50 pm at 4:50 pm |
  12. Roger Ogilvy Thornhill

    Haha. We are such ldiots. We deserve what we get - 50 years of the dark ages as we turn back the clock on women's rights, citizen's rights, gay rights, the environment and hand the keys to Wall Street, Big Oil, and the Koch brothers. Maybe that is what the Mayans predicted for 2012 - we in the New World would seal our fate with Romney/Ryan/Boehner/McConnell.

    October 8, 2012 04:50 pm at 4:50 pm |
  13. rich

    Americans seem to be able to remember as far back as the last event. And yes Twit was energetic but so are people on meth...

    October 8, 2012 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  14. concerned citizen

    Terrified at the prospests of Obama bankrupting this nation. He inherited about 1 trillion in debt and with his best efforts. has taken it to about 17 trillion. Not the person I want running this country.

    October 8, 2012 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  15. marty rogers

    Gallup released this afternoon has Obama back up by 5....while that included pre debate dates, it also included 4 full post-debate dates. what gives? a big shift from the 4-6th, and then another (job reports) from 7th through 8th. will know better by thursday which is correct. Interestingly the Rasmussen poll, which is conservative, had Romne up by 3 on friday, by 2 on saturday and sunday, and is now tie on Monday. weird....

    October 8, 2012 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  16. It's the swing states, baby!

    Too bad national polls are meaningless since we don't use popular voting. But hey, nice try, CNN. You'll have to find a new way to try to boost Romney's numbers.

    October 8, 2012 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  17. riral

    There you go again! Liberals are in PANIC MODe, Hey find something to get you sleep! Jim Avalon, gloria, Obrien and all others LIBERALS have to find that make them happy. C" mon guys you have to do something otherwise you dont have anything to do!

    October 8, 2012 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
  18. texassmasher

    i dont believe polls.....but after watching the debate i will be voting romney

    October 8, 2012 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
  19. what the meatball

    This jerk is going to start more war only this time it*ll be right here. not in some far away land! mitt is still a BULLY! He will ruin us.

    October 8, 2012 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
  20. deek

    Obama will lose the next debate too. He cannot act "presidential". He likes to wave his arms around and yell like a Baptist minister. What a coward too. Calling Romney a liar after the debate. What a loser. He didn't have the guts to call him a liar to his face so he waited till after. Obama is like a retired school teacher.......no class.

    October 8, 2012 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  21. The only good poll is in a strip club

    Pew that stinks...for Libs! Amazing what happens when you take off the spin goggles and get a shot of the Mitt unfiltered, cant wait until town hall debate

    October 8, 2012 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  22. Wondering Wanda

    Hey, Critical thinking if you were a true critical thinker–you would reach a different conclusion, because you would weigh all the facts and thinking beyond the talking points–Name three things you view as failures by the President!

    October 8, 2012 04:54 pm at 4:54 pm |
  23. daveinla

    Only polls that matter are in battle ground states and the large urban areas of Ohio, Fla. Penn., are all full of inner city Democrats that are ignorant an uneducated so...Obama wins based on "I'm a victim vote" regardless of how many times Romney thrashes the Marxist in debates.

    October 8, 2012 04:54 pm at 4:54 pm |
  24. Snarks

    Thank the heavens and the stars. We need a real leader in office, not a liberal lunatic who never worked one private sector job in his life. Just look at the gas prices, 6 dollars a gallon in California, highest ever. Good job obama, you destroyed our nation, now let us heal with a true patriot.

    October 8, 2012 04:54 pm at 4:54 pm |
  25. Joe (Houston, Texas)

    If Romney wins I am going to deduct my dancing horse. Now I all need is to purchase a dancing horse.

    October 8, 2012 04:54 pm at 4:54 pm |
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