Two very different polls in battle for White House
October 8th, 2012
04:12 PM ET
2 years ago

Two very different polls in battle for White House

Washington (CNN) - Two national polls released Monday suggest Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney got a bounce out of last week's first presidential debate, though they differ on how much of a bump the GOP nominee received after his performance in Denver.

According to a Pew Research Center survey released Monday afternoon, 49% of likely voters say they back Romney, with 45% supporting President Barack Obama. The survey was conducted October 4-7, the four days after last Wednesday's first presidential debate in Denver, Colorado. Romney's four-point advantage is within the survey's sampling error.

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In Pew's previous poll, conducted in mid-September, the president had a 51%-43% lead among likely voters.

Among registered voters, Obama and Romney were both at 46% in the Pew survey released Monday. In mid-September Obama was at 51% and Romney was at 42% among registered voters.

Meanwhile, Gallup's latest daily tracking poll of registered voters, also released Monday afternoon, indicates the president with a 50%-45% advantage over Romney. The president's edge is within the survey's sampling error. The poll was conducted October 1-7, both before and after the debate.

Early Monday Gallup released a breakdown of its previous tracking poll, which was conducted September 30-October 6. The survey indicated that Obama held a 50%-45% advantage over Romney from September 30-October 2, the three days leading up to last Wednesday's presidential debate, and that Romney and Obama were deadlocked at 47% each in the three days after the debate, from October 4-6.

Responding to the Pew poll, an Obama campaign official pointed to a shift in the party identification percentages used in Pew's mid-September poll compared to the poll released Monday.

The earlier survey was composed of 39% Democrats, 29% Republicans and 30% independents, while Monday's poll was comprised of 31% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 30% independents.

"This is far bigger than any one-month change in party ID ever reported by Pew in the past," the Obama campaign official said.

Another representative of the Obama campaign said the "state of the race is what it has been, which is a close and competitive race in key states with a slight lean towards the president."

Meanwhile, a Romney campaign official said the GOP effort was "encouraged by the enthusiasm we are seeing from supporters who are energized, as well as undecided voters who are now giving the Governor a new look." They are "continuing to work hard to bring home persuadable voters," the official said.

The new Gallup Tracking poll questioned approximately 2,200 registered voters nationwide by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

The Pew Research center poll questioned 1,112 likely voters by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

CNN's Jim Acosta and Dan Lothian contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls
soundoff (363 Responses)
  1. AJ

    For all of you Libs that are now throwing Pew Research under the bus, get a clue. They were polling your boy at D+5 to D+12. They probably still are (I haven't seen the internals for this poll yet, but really think about what this means).

    Obama has NEVER actually been winning this election except in your twisted minds. You really need to get a clue! As your God states, it is simple math. All the polls you have been trumpeting that have your Messiah winning this election are pure and simple, polling fraud. Example

    Democrats Polled 40 individuals
    Republicans Polled 30 individuals
    Independants Polled 30 individuals

    The poll then states your "God" is winning by 5%-10% and you believe the poll. This really shows how idiotic you guys are!

    Now that the same poll shows a 10% reverse swing from the "magic" threshold of 50% to 45%, and almost the exact opposite for Romney now up by almost the exact reverse. Of course you can't handle the truth, you don't even know what truth is, and all you have left is your left leaning screaming of tax cheat or whatever.......

    Romney said it best referring to what Obama champions by saying, "You really know how to pick losers!"

    HA!

    October 8, 2012 04:54 pm at 4:54 pm |
  2. Rusty Shackleford

    The media and $$ run the country. It is not liberal media. It is not right wing media. It is all media that feed upon the fears to increase profits. I honestly do not care who wins but it would be a more interesting country if Mitt wins the election.

    Obama is always...well...Obama. He is very robotic. Mitt will give us some laughing points over the next 4 years and I don't think he will be all that bad. BTW did anyone watch closely at the end of the debate. Romney was so nervous he could not get his paper in his pocket then looked like he needed escorted from the stage. He seemed a little panic stricken. Which is fine by me...he is human...but he will give us some laughs in the next 4 years. Obama has basically disappeared once elected. The fire that got him that spot seemed to quickly diminish once in office. That is why he is paying in the polls. It is not our completely incompetent government. It is not the media constantly feeding upon fears. He got the job and disappeared. I think that is his personality and that is fine...but not when you face a very "human" person in Mitt. They are both egotistical jerks that neither would want to dine with you or your family so this constant battle of citizens is extremely funny to read. People act like their lives are on the line. They are both the same steak...one with different seasoning.

    October 8, 2012 04:54 pm at 4:54 pm |
  3. Robert

    Romney has finally proven himself the great 'Master Debater' I knew he would be when it comes to voicing the story of his fellow Americans.

    October 8, 2012 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  4. MrBeenThere

    Obama is playing Chess compared to Mitt who only understands checker's ..................... I'm betting Mitt is going to loose his little castle, enjoy your little bump Mitt...........

    October 8, 2012 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  5. michael

    I'm surprised there are still so many supporters of Obama the empty suit socialist. A guy who is ruining our country. High taxes, high regulation, factories closing left and right, bad energy policies, wants amnesty for illegal aliens, doesn;t have a clue on foreign policy, running the country into the ground, play more than he works. Has no idea what he's doing and you Obamabots need to stop drinking the koolaid.

    October 8, 2012 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  6. Get real

    How about the fact that the President had to participate in a meaningless debate while Syria was bombing Turkey?!?! He has more important things to think about right now than stupid debates that don't change people's minds anyways. If you already decided Romney nothing is going to change your mind. If you already decided Obama nothing is going to change your mind. Undecideds won't know until they pick a name on election day!

    October 8, 2012 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  7. Br0tH3R

    And the conservativez are jumpin for joy at this poll lol Otherwise they would say: "jus another trick that surveyed only the liberalz" or "the media iz secretly favoring obama". Im takin no sidez in this but the right wingerz are so predictable n typical when it comez to politicz.

    October 8, 2012 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  8. HOLY TIGHTY WHITIES WILLARD

    I'm enjoying watching Willard, Gov. McDonnell & Rep. Riggell getting rained on. Just made my day.

    October 8, 2012 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  9. Peacefulstorm

    Wait! the Republicans believe the polls NOW???

    October 8, 2012 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  10. oy

    Um guys? Did you even read the story? The headline is misleading. Romney got a bump in one poll....but Obama is ahead by a lot in another. You can stop strutting around now.
    And Mark, "god" has nothing to do with it and I find it disgusting that you're "praising" him/her/it over a political poll.
    I can't believe so many people dislike Obama that much that they would cheer over Romney's performance in the debates...b/c that's what it was. A performance. He changed his positions and then flat out LIED to the American public. From Newt's own lips re: Mitt, "You can't debate someone who is dishonest". I don't like Newt, but he speaks the truth on this one!

    October 8, 2012 04:57 pm at 4:57 pm |
  11. braddockboy

    HolyThighty
    You do not have to wait for Mitt Romney to become president of the united states . Just call "Tax Cheat "Mr Geithner.He will show you how to do it now!

    October 8, 2012 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  12. Obama2ndterm

    Not because Obama didn't call Romney out on 47% of american he didn't care about; left Mass. ranked 47th as a job creator; Can't bank on America and who is not afraid to leave 40 million ppl in emergency room, want to fire the moderator and big bird, unpresidential on foreign policy.....do you want me to go on. I AM SURE THE AMERICAN PPL WILL NOT TRUST THIS FLIP FLOPPA!!!

    October 8, 2012 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  13. John Galt Lives

    >If this tax evader becomes President, I'm opening a Swiss Bank Account & a Luxembourg account.
    >If he can get away with it, why can't I?

    Newsflash for you Einstein - you CAN "get away with it", and quite easily, I might add, since having a "Swiss Bank account and a Luxemborg account" is pefectly LEGAL right now. (maybe your lefty friends didn't bother telling you THAT...)

    And while you libel Romney as "tax evader", I'll bet he paid more taxes last year *alone* than you will pay in your *entire life*... so who is the freeloader here?

    October 8, 2012 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  14. KC

    I don't get it. How can a poor "performance" in a debate cause such a major jump in the poles for Romney. Where do they get these numbers from? If they're sampling people with land lines only, I would have to say that that's a bit ancient considering the majority of us have cell phones now don't you think? or am I missing something?

    October 8, 2012 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  15. Rob

    I voted for Obama last time. Not this time. He really let me down these past 4 years.

    October 8, 2012 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  16. TTrocks

    Seriously you guys are using the Romney bully tactic? Some of you don't even fall under the category of lame.

    October 8, 2012 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  17. ALKP

    I am not that gullible. It would take more than an hour and 30 minutes to convince me. Any one can say and paint a rosy picture in a debate but it does not mean they mean it. I am still voting against Romney.

    October 8, 2012 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  18. Mark

    To President,
    I felt in love wiht the way how you speak and believed in your slogan "Change" four yers ago.
    I though you would be a savior from the falling down economy.
    Now, We have seen you in White House for four years. But.. you have done nothing beside blaming Bush...

    October 8, 2012 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  19. Alain Ciphat

    Holy ... Willard,

    Needless to say, if you had enough money, you would already have it in an offshore account. The fact that you don't means you won't. Enjoy your 47%.

    October 8, 2012 05:01 pm at 5:01 pm |
  20. ed bango11211

    hhhahahhahaha this number is skewed

    October 8, 2012 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  21. Rob - NYC

    I think people who support him purposely chose Romney to wake Obama up and realize that this he'll have to fight for every vote.

    October 8, 2012 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  22. Borderless

    Could America actually be waking up from this long, four year dream to the harsh realization that Obama wasn't everything we were told? Could it be that people are now starting to see him for the pathetic wind bag and general loser he is? That is almost too good to be true. What's next? Are we going to realize the Kardashians are pointless? For the first time since "Mr. Hope" was elected, I actually have some hope.

    October 8, 2012 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  23. JHonny five

    Dont worry after nov robme can help bush find the wmds, which is why nobody's seen him

    October 8, 2012 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  24. miklea supporter, but

    You, Obama lovers cannot say what is obvious Romney better than Obama. I think it a shame that President lost and start yell Lie ,Lie. Who is talking LIE.? Obama . That joke.

    October 8, 2012 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  25. ROMNEY 21012

    go getem Romney now we can get serious about fighting Iran

    October 8, 2012 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
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