Two very different polls in battle for White House
October 8th, 2012
04:12 PM ET
2 years ago

Two very different polls in battle for White House

Washington (CNN) - Two national polls released Monday suggest Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney got a bounce out of last week's first presidential debate, though they differ on how much of a bump the GOP nominee received after his performance in Denver.

According to a Pew Research Center survey released Monday afternoon, 49% of likely voters say they back Romney, with 45% supporting President Barack Obama. The survey was conducted October 4-7, the four days after last Wednesday's first presidential debate in Denver, Colorado. Romney's four-point advantage is within the survey's sampling error.

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In Pew's previous poll, conducted in mid-September, the president had a 51%-43% lead among likely voters.

Among registered voters, Obama and Romney were both at 46% in the Pew survey released Monday. In mid-September Obama was at 51% and Romney was at 42% among registered voters.

Meanwhile, Gallup's latest daily tracking poll of registered voters, also released Monday afternoon, indicates the president with a 50%-45% advantage over Romney. The president's edge is within the survey's sampling error. The poll was conducted October 1-7, both before and after the debate.

Early Monday Gallup released a breakdown of its previous tracking poll, which was conducted September 30-October 6. The survey indicated that Obama held a 50%-45% advantage over Romney from September 30-October 2, the three days leading up to last Wednesday's presidential debate, and that Romney and Obama were deadlocked at 47% each in the three days after the debate, from October 4-6.

Responding to the Pew poll, an Obama campaign official pointed to a shift in the party identification percentages used in Pew's mid-September poll compared to the poll released Monday.

The earlier survey was composed of 39% Democrats, 29% Republicans and 30% independents, while Monday's poll was comprised of 31% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 30% independents.

"This is far bigger than any one-month change in party ID ever reported by Pew in the past," the Obama campaign official said.

Another representative of the Obama campaign said the "state of the race is what it has been, which is a close and competitive race in key states with a slight lean towards the president."

Meanwhile, a Romney campaign official said the GOP effort was "encouraged by the enthusiasm we are seeing from supporters who are energized, as well as undecided voters who are now giving the Governor a new look." They are "continuing to work hard to bring home persuadable voters," the official said.

The new Gallup Tracking poll questioned approximately 2,200 registered voters nationwide by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

The Pew Research center poll questioned 1,112 likely voters by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

CNN's Jim Acosta and Dan Lothian contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls
soundoff (363 Responses)
  1. Phil

    Hey Obama groupies, instead of stealing Obama's cheap teleprompter lies and talking like you actually know something about facts. How bout you do some research of your own and quit acting like sheep. You've been lied to for 4 years under the Obama admin yet you still worship & defend him like he is your Mother. It's pathetic how you follow him blind after he founded his campaing on broken promises that he never intended to keep. Remember "I will cut the deficit in half if I'm elected President!" Nice 4 straight years of trillion dollar deficits!

    October 8, 2012 05:03 pm at 5:03 pm |
  2. AModerate

    I like how people think that the president controls gas prices and food prices. Must be the same uneducated, bandwagoning repubLIEcans who think RobMe is going to save them from something. ha ha

    October 8, 2012 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  3. Blah blah the wheel's off your trailer

    I have to laugh at both conservatives and even liberals who say the President lost the debate because he didn't say this and didn't say that. Total nonsense. Romney has been on the campaign trail for more than a year now and there's a whole lot he hasn't said about his position on foreign and domestic issues. For exapmle, Romney is yet to explain where he stands on equal pay for equal work, whether or not he is for or against increasing the minimun wage, whether he'd support or repeal Don't Ask, Don't Tell, whether he'd repeal the Dream Act, whether he'd support Paul Ryan voucher program to privatize medicaid and medicare, his position on rape, his position on collective bargaining and on and on and on. Then he has spent months accusing the President of not doing anything to help the middle class, yet he has failed to explain how billions of stimulus dollars to help the millions of unemloyed Americans keep food on the table and a roof over their love ones' heads while they search for work is NOT helping the middle class??? Furthermore, Romney likes to accuse the President of inflating the national deficit but he is yet to explain how he would have gone about stabilizing the broken American economy differently without passage of a stimulus package or how he would have gone about helping the millions of unemployed differently??? Just keep in mind that Romney said its not his job to worry about 47% of the American people. Never mind his phony tearful apology! And just keep in mind that he once said that he's not worried about the poor because there's a safety net of some sort. And while Romney likes to accuse the President of inflating the national deficit, he is yet to explain how 5 trillion dollars wasted in Iraq and Afghanistan is the President's fault.

    October 8, 2012 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  4. flip flop fizz fizz

    Wolfe avoided the obvious when someone said... It will be interesting to see the swing state polls. Wolfe had a blank stare and skipped over the comment. Why would he do this? Because Obama is still leading.. the race is still over.. no one will watch election night knowing this this. Why has Wolfe failed to show any new CNN polls on Monday when he does every other Monday? I hate when all we get is what CNN wants us to hear and see, so it benefits their ratings.

    October 8, 2012 05:05 pm at 5:05 pm |
  5. sayer

    The only poll that matters is on November 6th. Obama 2012!

    October 8, 2012 05:05 pm at 5:05 pm |
  6. pjstephe

    This guy will say or do anything to become president.By the sounds of it he will have the US in new wars before you know it if elected.Start counting your dead.At Obama is showing restraint when it should be applied.

    October 8, 2012 05:05 pm at 5:05 pm |
  7. Seriously?

    Does CNN understand basic arithmetic??? The post says that there was a sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percent, but the margin of Romney's advantage over Obama is 4 percent. Unbelievable that we have people like this reporting our news.

    October 8, 2012 05:06 pm at 5:06 pm |
  8. New Yorkers against Trump

    Romney is a tax cheat and a big yellow bird hater. I hate him and hope he falls off the face of the earth.

    October 8, 2012 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  9. Pete

    Do Americans have ADD?

    They try 8 years of Republicans, they end up in a financial crisis.

    They try 4 years of Democrats, they end up with a slow recovery, but a RECOVERY nonetheless.

    Not fast enough for them, so they now want to go back to Republicans?

    Does this make any sense at all? Your babysitter burns down your house. You fire her. You hire a new babysitter; she slowly rebuilds your house - now you want to fire her and rehire the babysitter that burned down your house.

    Seriously, what the hell is wrong with Americans? Are they really this stupid?

    October 8, 2012 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  10. Mac Crabbe

    I love the misguided hippie left-wing lies about Romney. I've never seen such animosity directed at someone simply because he went out into the world and made himself a lot of money, all on his own. The guy the liberal retards are mocking just gave away 4 million bucks to charity this year. He gave away his entire inheritance to charity, too. The liberal idiot support for Obama is a sign of these corrupt commie times, wherein the pinko automatons actually call you a "felon" and a "criminal" because you make a very good living, and take advantage of perfectly legal tax deductions, just like George Soros and Warren Buffet do. Meanwhile, Barack Obama is the most crooked, thieving, lying, manipulative, hateful, and genuinely racist jerk who ever lived. He has destroyed this country, and turned it into a Third World dump. I can't belive liberals. Liberals are bad news. The most nasty, intolerant, and destructive people in this country are liberals. Nothing but a bunch of angry, violent thugs, who attack and destroy if they don't get their way. Talk about drinking the Kool-Aid. They're guzzling it with both hands, and having it pumped into their arms intravenously. Man, I miss Reagan and the 1980s. People used to want to work hard, obey laws, and be well-off. Not anymore. Now, it's ghetto shiftlessness, laziness, and whining, and demanding everything for free. If I don't have it, I'll scream, and threaten, and riot until you give me what you've got. Nothing but corrupt, spoiled gangsters.

    October 8, 2012 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  11. Anonymous

    Romney will lose. He is a compulsive liar and a yes man.

    October 8, 2012 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  12. Seriously?

    ^^^Yet they said that the advantage was within the sampling error.

    October 8, 2012 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  13. mike58

    I'm for Romney but I still don't believe the polls

    October 8, 2012 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  14. New Yorkers against Trump

    Romney is bad for women and any woman who votes for him is just plain dumb.

    October 8, 2012 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  15. Dirk

    HOLY TIGHTY WHITIES WILLARD, Open up a swiss bank accout – you can do it. Set up a tax shelter in the Caymans. It's all legal if you follow protocol.

    However, don't mince jealousy with opportunity.

    October 8, 2012 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  16. Paul

    This country is going to burn if Romney is elected!

    October 8, 2012 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  17. GaryB

    So the question is, who is the real Mitt Romney and what are his plans. Many of the stands he took during the debates run counter to the positions he has taken last four years. As voters, do we believe what he said for one day, or do we believe what he's been saying for 4+ years? Do we believe what he says to his ultra-private donors in closed door meetings, or do we believe what he says after two weeks of focus polling and debate prep?

    October 8, 2012 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  18. bill

    The only poll that matters is the one in November, and Obama will lead in that poll which will allow him to continue to rebuild a country that the GOP has destroyed.

    October 8, 2012 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  19. Namegreta518

    It's the swing states that matter.....Obama ahead in most of those!

    October 8, 2012 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  20. David

    I'll bet Romney didn't complain about the polls being wrong for that Pew Research Poll. When things are in his favor then the polls must be right but if not, its a conspiracy against him. He is so fake.

    October 8, 2012 05:11 pm at 5:11 pm |
  21. jogs

    The only poll that means anything is on the day of election

    October 8, 2012 05:12 pm at 5:12 pm |
  22. no name

    Americans use your vote well – if you have a 53% trust that Mitt Romney will not change his mind on the plan that he should lay out in detail before the election then vote for him – if you have a 47% trust that he will say anything to get voted in as president then you know who to vote for. Listen and listen well because you can direct the course of the country. The Republican Party appeared to have taken the voters lightly. The voters can tell them once and for all that lying to get votes is not a joke or good polictics. I am not a fan of President Obama but I believe he is the right man for the right time. He really inherited a really bad situation which no republican candidate wanted at the time they want it now so you know for sure things are definitely improving. The voting public can determine if President Obama should continue the course to improvement and success for the economy or elect Romney and put the country on a whole different unknown course (he has not laid out his plan in detail) because all though Mitt Romney says he is similar to President Obama in some instances you have to ask yourself if he means it this time or just saying it to get votes.

    October 8, 2012 05:12 pm at 5:12 pm |
  23. Lisa in Ga

    Umm virtually it is a tie. Nov 6 everyone will be sitting on pins and needles until the results come in. Unless Romney switches back to the severly conservative Romney, maybe the Moderate, maybe the umm. I don't know. I have lost count.

    October 8, 2012 05:12 pm at 5:12 pm |
  24. Vumba

    Sore losers all of you whiners...

    October 8, 2012 05:13 pm at 5:13 pm |
  25. Mahone

    I'm not thrilled with Romney but don't believe in Obama's "socialistic" agenda......let the organizations that are set up to take care of people do their jobs....it is not the governments job to prop up each and every person....I, like most people have no problem helping those that are truly trying to help themselves......it's the people who don't try and feel that they are "owed" something that need to get off their asses, and either get an education, re-training or suffer the consequences.......sorry about that you liberals!

    October 8, 2012 05:13 pm at 5:13 pm |
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