Two very different polls in battle for White House
October 8th, 2012
04:12 PM ET
2 years ago

Two very different polls in battle for White House

Washington (CNN) - Two national polls released Monday suggest Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney got a bounce out of last week's first presidential debate, though they differ on how much of a bump the GOP nominee received after his performance in Denver.

According to a Pew Research Center survey released Monday afternoon, 49% of likely voters say they back Romney, with 45% supporting President Barack Obama. The survey was conducted October 4-7, the four days after last Wednesday's first presidential debate in Denver, Colorado. Romney's four-point advantage is within the survey's sampling error.

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In Pew's previous poll, conducted in mid-September, the president had a 51%-43% lead among likely voters.

Among registered voters, Obama and Romney were both at 46% in the Pew survey released Monday. In mid-September Obama was at 51% and Romney was at 42% among registered voters.

Meanwhile, Gallup's latest daily tracking poll of registered voters, also released Monday afternoon, indicates the president with a 50%-45% advantage over Romney. The president's edge is within the survey's sampling error. The poll was conducted October 1-7, both before and after the debate.

Early Monday Gallup released a breakdown of its previous tracking poll, which was conducted September 30-October 6. The survey indicated that Obama held a 50%-45% advantage over Romney from September 30-October 2, the three days leading up to last Wednesday's presidential debate, and that Romney and Obama were deadlocked at 47% each in the three days after the debate, from October 4-6.

Responding to the Pew poll, an Obama campaign official pointed to a shift in the party identification percentages used in Pew's mid-September poll compared to the poll released Monday.

The earlier survey was composed of 39% Democrats, 29% Republicans and 30% independents, while Monday's poll was comprised of 31% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 30% independents.

"This is far bigger than any one-month change in party ID ever reported by Pew in the past," the Obama campaign official said.

Another representative of the Obama campaign said the "state of the race is what it has been, which is a close and competitive race in key states with a slight lean towards the president."

Meanwhile, a Romney campaign official said the GOP effort was "encouraged by the enthusiasm we are seeing from supporters who are energized, as well as undecided voters who are now giving the Governor a new look." They are "continuing to work hard to bring home persuadable voters," the official said.

The new Gallup Tracking poll questioned approximately 2,200 registered voters nationwide by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

The Pew Research center poll questioned 1,112 likely voters by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

CNN's Jim Acosta and Dan Lothian contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls
soundoff (363 Responses)
  1. Boytjie

    I guess the Pew poll unskewed their poll sufficiently for the conspiracy nuts.

    October 8, 2012 05:14 pm at 5:14 pm |
  2. ja

    according to polls obama wasn't going to win in 08, to hell with the polls

    October 8, 2012 05:14 pm at 5:14 pm |
  3. SpenderH

    Romney is even tied with Obama with women voters at 47%. Obama's wall of lies about the Republicans is falling down and the truth is being exposed. Romney is also winning largely on economic questions. If voters really feel "It's the economy, stupid" this poll shows they will vote for Romney.

    October 8, 2012 05:15 pm at 5:15 pm |
  4. k

    Keep making comments libs. It's freaking hilarious watching your delusional melt down.

    October 8, 2012 05:15 pm at 5:15 pm |
  5. Chris in NY

    No poll counts more than the one on election day and the elctoral college votes which from what I can see on your site hasn't changed or has it?

    October 8, 2012 05:16 pm at 5:16 pm |
  6. Dan

    Romney is crushing Obama in the new Pew poll.

    Now Ryan can cruise past Biden this week.
    Next week, Romney will drive the nail in the coffin on Obama. Obama is the worst debater in the history of politics.

    October 8, 2012 05:16 pm at 5:16 pm |
  7. Phil Muse

    Who are the pollsters? More important, how do they determine the people that they call? I've followed the political campaigns avidly in recent years (especially now that the Republican Party has turned out a lot funnier than any TV sitcom), but no pollster has ever called me to ask my opinion. Like a lot of Americans, I recently switched to a cell phone because it was less expensive than my land line . Now, I'm not likely to be called at all.

    October 8, 2012 05:16 pm at 5:16 pm |
  8. Mahone

    HOLY TIGHTY WHITIES WILLARD....you need to wear boxers....based on your comments, the blood flow to both of your heads is being restricted!

    October 8, 2012 05:16 pm at 5:16 pm |
  9. no name

    Americans use your vote well – if you have a 53% trust that Mitt Romney will not change his mind on the plan that he should lay out in detail before the election then vote for him – if you have a 47% trust that he will say anything to get voted in as president then you know who to vote for. Listen and listen well because you can direct the course of the country. The Republican Party appeared to have taken the voters lightly. The voters can tell them once and for all that lying to get votes is not a joke or good polictics. I am not a fan of President Obama but I believe he is the right man for the right time. He really inherited a really bad situation which no republican candidate wanted at the time they want it now so you know for sure things are definitely improving. The voting public can determine if President Obama should continue the course to improvement and success for the economy or elect Romney and put the country on a whole different unknown course (he has not laid out his plan in detail) because all though Mitt Romney says he is similar to President Obama in some instances you have to ask yourself if he means it this time or just saying it to get votes.

    October 8, 2012 05:17 pm at 5:17 pm |
  10. llydapdicter

    @beevee Obama couldn't even defend his own record because it is so atrocious. Now that's a real president for ya! hahaha

    October 8, 2012 05:18 pm at 5:18 pm |
  11. Azax

    McCain had a similar bump after announcing Sarah Palin as his running mate. People always find out soon about the real deal.

    October 8, 2012 05:18 pm at 5:18 pm |
  12. cantbelivethis

    Loqe, you think Obama didn't say and do anything to get elected? Remember that Hope & Change B.S.? Remember how Obama said, "Let's focus on Main St. and not Wall St." Funny how the first order of business was to bailout Wall St. and payback his campaign contributors.

    October 8, 2012 05:18 pm at 5:18 pm |
  13. amber

    Don't people realize that Romney is a total tool that's going to say whatever he thinks will get him votes? How can you debate utter lies? You can't! And can you honestly say your life is worse than it was 4 years ago?? Because it's not. Unemployment is dropping, the economy is stabilizing and things ARE better. Just go look in your local shopping mall. Do you think it would be THAT packed if people were really starving and in utter poverty? NO!!!! Wake up people....Romney is NOT the answer!!!!! What civil liberties have been taken from you since Obama has been in office? Can't you still go to your church? Can't you still speak your mind? Can't you still bear arms? Can't you still do all the things you could before he got into office? YES, YES, YES and YES! At least with Obama, you can verify what he's saying as truth. Why would people willingly put a LIAR in office, like Romney? I dont get it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    October 8, 2012 05:19 pm at 5:19 pm |
  14. NObama

    Obama is corrupt giving Billions to bankrupt green energy companies who give bonuses to each other with our money. That is a crappy businessman, and he doesn't even apologize, cuz he always has excuses. The weakest leader I've ever seen and amazing how people still would vote for him. How bad does it have to be before the others realize, we just can't afford to have a lazy president who would rather be on talk shows than to lead a country!!!

    October 8, 2012 05:19 pm at 5:19 pm |
  15. Chris in NY

    I don't care what the polls say. Mit Romney is not going to win this election.

    October 8, 2012 05:19 pm at 5:19 pm |
  16. wow

    these polls are rigged...oh, wait a minute, we are winning...my bad, the polls are the best indicator of how the people are feeling!

    October 8, 2012 05:21 pm at 5:21 pm |
  17. mary

    So, now the republicans believe the poll is no longer skrewed up.

    October 8, 2012 05:21 pm at 5:21 pm |
  18. BC

    Well this can't be right, because the RIGHT swear that the national polls are rigged!

    October 8, 2012 05:22 pm at 5:22 pm |
  19. Wholly Mary

    PEW-Somethng stinks!

    October 8, 2012 05:22 pm at 5:22 pm |
  20. Max

    70 million peoeple got to see Obama without his teleprompter. He is exactly what Clint Eastwood described..an empty chair. Obama did the worst performance in debate history according to Gallup. The whole world got to see what everyone was saying about Obama... is TRUE! It's over..time to elect Romney and get this country moving in the right direction!

    October 8, 2012 05:23 pm at 5:23 pm |
  21. misty

    I cannot believe people are so blind. Romney is a flip flopper, liar, and cheat. He is still a bully and cares about no one but his cronies. Obama is a good and honest person. He is doing the best he can with the dingbats (GOP congress) that he can. If you think for a second that Romney cares about people, then you are all blind sheep. He will lead you straight to the slaughter house and you will all be crying!

    October 8, 2012 05:23 pm at 5:23 pm |
  22. Pete/Ark

    Polls are great...they give pundits something to talk about...however, the odds of being right are about the same as beatinf the casino 6 straight at blackjack.

    October 8, 2012 05:24 pm at 5:24 pm |
  23. Thomas

    According to a new report in The Washington Post, the median net worth of the current Congress rose 5% during the recession while it fell 39% for the average American. The wealthiest one-third of lawmakers saw their net worth rise 14%.

    Ryan , Lobbyist ,

    October 8, 2012 05:24 pm at 5:24 pm |
  24. wolfpackbob

    It is The Economy, Mr. President. Your Economy, Mr. President. You built that.

    October 8, 2012 05:24 pm at 5:24 pm |
  25. flavoter

    The media and many Americans have given Romney a pass. No details very evasive .... Not called to account for his many lies. The old double standard at work again ... not suprising in this country.

    October 8, 2012 05:24 pm at 5:24 pm |
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