Two very different polls in battle for White House
October 8th, 2012
04:12 PM ET
2 years ago

Two very different polls in battle for White House

Washington (CNN) - Two national polls released Monday suggest Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney got a bounce out of last week's first presidential debate, though they differ on how much of a bump the GOP nominee received after his performance in Denver.

According to a Pew Research Center survey released Monday afternoon, 49% of likely voters say they back Romney, with 45% supporting President Barack Obama. The survey was conducted October 4-7, the four days after last Wednesday's first presidential debate in Denver, Colorado. Romney's four-point advantage is within the survey's sampling error.

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In Pew's previous poll, conducted in mid-September, the president had a 51%-43% lead among likely voters.

Among registered voters, Obama and Romney were both at 46% in the Pew survey released Monday. In mid-September Obama was at 51% and Romney was at 42% among registered voters.

Meanwhile, Gallup's latest daily tracking poll of registered voters, also released Monday afternoon, indicates the president with a 50%-45% advantage over Romney. The president's edge is within the survey's sampling error. The poll was conducted October 1-7, both before and after the debate.

Early Monday Gallup released a breakdown of its previous tracking poll, which was conducted September 30-October 6. The survey indicated that Obama held a 50%-45% advantage over Romney from September 30-October 2, the three days leading up to last Wednesday's presidential debate, and that Romney and Obama were deadlocked at 47% each in the three days after the debate, from October 4-6.

Responding to the Pew poll, an Obama campaign official pointed to a shift in the party identification percentages used in Pew's mid-September poll compared to the poll released Monday.

The earlier survey was composed of 39% Democrats, 29% Republicans and 30% independents, while Monday's poll was comprised of 31% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 30% independents.

"This is far bigger than any one-month change in party ID ever reported by Pew in the past," the Obama campaign official said.

Another representative of the Obama campaign said the "state of the race is what it has been, which is a close and competitive race in key states with a slight lean towards the president."

Meanwhile, a Romney campaign official said the GOP effort was "encouraged by the enthusiasm we are seeing from supporters who are energized, as well as undecided voters who are now giving the Governor a new look." They are "continuing to work hard to bring home persuadable voters," the official said.

The new Gallup Tracking poll questioned approximately 2,200 registered voters nationwide by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

The Pew Research center poll questioned 1,112 likely voters by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

CNN's Jim Acosta and Dan Lothian contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls
soundoff (363 Responses)
  1. army61w

    We've known for a while that Mitt will say anything to get elected, and now it looks like he found the right recipe. Now if only his statements were based in fact...

    October 8, 2012 05:24 pm at 5:24 pm |
  2. Nate

    To CNN: Way to bury the lead.

    I do not know who will win. Apparently it will be very close. I will probably go for Romney fellas. So let the hate begin. Which is what I deserve for posting on CNN.

    October 8, 2012 05:25 pm at 5:25 pm |
  3. Tish NC

    So these polls are right now? Yeah right!

    October 8, 2012 05:26 pm at 5:26 pm |
  4. angryed

    Not that surprising...people want more than excuses and deficit spending out of the president

    October 8, 2012 05:27 pm at 5:27 pm |
  5. Debby

    Polls after debates matter now so its a close race.

    October 8, 2012 05:27 pm at 5:27 pm |
  6. John Smith

    I think Obama Campaign didn't show up for the debate to see what tactics or how he (Romney) is going to attack Obama on issues. They are waiting for the next two debates to really hit him hard. I'm pretty sure Romney is going to nervous and get mad in the next two debates. This is election is not even close to be over.

    October 8, 2012 05:27 pm at 5:27 pm |
  7. Ronda in Houston,TX

    Is this the truth or a lie....Richard Nixon was Mitt Romney's godfather when George Romney was working in the Dept of Housing and Urban Development?

    October 8, 2012 05:29 pm at 5:29 pm |
  8. Cano

    Mitt Romney suffered from multi-personality disorder ... He says what ever the people in front of him want to hear...Neither side can trust Mitt ...Mitt can not even trust himself from 10 days ago...Right after the Wisconsin recall election he said there was the proof we do not need more policemen, firemen, teachers..on the taxpayers expense..

    October 8, 2012 05:30 pm at 5:30 pm |
  9. ricardo1968

    I'm very surprised how many people bought into this sudden leap into the center. Yeah, we know Mitt started as a moderate, but we also have seen how he'll do anything for the support of the radical right until he doesn't need them anymore. The man lacks conviction in a very big, very dangerous way.

    October 8, 2012 05:30 pm at 5:30 pm |
  10. Andrew

    People are so blinded by Romney the flipflopper! Anyone who votes for this guy should be fired by him if he gets elected! Romney is buying the votes! Romney will throw people away just like the 47% of America!

    October 8, 2012 05:30 pm at 5:30 pm |
  11. ALKP

    It takes more than an hour and 30 minutes in a debate to erase all the years of flip-flopping. I am still voting against Romney.

    October 8, 2012 05:31 pm at 5:31 pm |
  12. Sam

    One cannot be serious and vote for Romney. What does he stand for?
    He would reduce taxes, cause even higher deficit and debt, repeal obamacare and Dodd/Frank, cause another financial armaggeddon (a la Bush 2008), and start Iran war to cover his crimes.
    Who would vote for that?

    Obama is far from perfect, yet he is for real. Obama wins in a landslide.

    October 8, 2012 05:31 pm at 5:31 pm |
  13. Cano

    Romney looked more presidential! That's all the brainwashed conservatives care about! No matter that Romney was lying and flip-flopping and played magic math!
    Obama 2012!

    October 8, 2012 05:31 pm at 5:31 pm |
  14. Scott

    No name: Get a life bud. Romney?Ryan 2012

    October 8, 2012 05:32 pm at 5:32 pm |
  15. philojazz

    Still waiting for Mr Romney's bunch to give some ACTUAL real-life examples of taxpayers in the 100K, 200K , 500K income brackets, and HOW he's going to "cut their tax bracket by 20% and still NOT cut their taxes", Or WHATEVER he thinks he's saying this week. If he's trying to communicate something about REAL people, then he should do it. Otherwise, he looks like what he is, "Mitt Mitt, the chicken-s–t hyprocrite". No "straight talk" here, no "great communicator" either. Just the same old chicken-s–t. (Hey. what's Paul Ryan's latest Marathon Time, huh?...)

    October 8, 2012 05:32 pm at 5:32 pm |
  16. logi_101

    Mitt and Ann refuse to show their tax returns for 2005-2009, since their accountants said they paid about 14%, the only reason to hide those returns is the IRS amnesty for rich tax cheats with secret Swiss accounts. After the UBS whistle blower case the IRS let rich tax cheats "pay the fine" instead of trial for the felony they committed. Maybe they should be in the Big House rather than the White House.

    October 8, 2012 05:32 pm at 5:32 pm |
  17. Dont lie

    Today I tuned into CNN to get some news and was unsettled by Wolfs lead in to the Pew poll.

    October 8, 2012 05:32 pm at 5:32 pm |
  18. James B

    Pew Poll conducted immediately after the debate and covers the period 4-7 October. The Gallup poll covers the last 7 days. Which is more accurate? The Gallup. Come on CNN, put the poll internals out to all citizens. This is much ado about nothing. The race remains unchanged.

    October 8, 2012 05:32 pm at 5:32 pm |
  19. Cano

    Romney will have to explain how he will pay for his massive tax cuts. Planned Parenthood and Big Bird won't cut it. Bush already tried that.

    October 8, 2012 05:33 pm at 5:33 pm |
  20. Silence DoGood

    The "choice" seems like lying conservative or liberal-lite preppy talker.

    The real choice is to vote your conscience (remember that?). Go Green Party! It is Obama's fault if he loses votes because real liberals are becoming disillusioned with the status quo.

    October 8, 2012 05:35 pm at 5:35 pm |
  21. AJ

    Libs, here is some more reality for you, that is if you are interested in reality. This is from http://www.hotair.com

    NEWS FLASH: (This is a poll taken BEFORE the debate)
    A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of likely voters shows ahead of Mitt Romney 49 percent to 48 percent nationally, and the is with a D+8 (Ha, ha, ha, ha no person in their right mind believes for one second Obama is going to have 8% more Democrats go to the polls in 2012 than the D+7 he had in 2008, and you are still losing.

    It has a D/R/I of 38/30/32, for a D+8. That’s more Democratic than 2008′s D+7, which took place in a cycle with much more Democratic enthusiasm than this poll demonstrates. If Obama trails in a D+8 poll by 6 among the extremely likely voters with four weeks to go, he’s in deep trouble — and his debate performance certainly won’t boost him.

    {Obama} you "really know how to pick losers" -Romney in the October 4th Debate schooling Obama

    October 8, 2012 05:35 pm at 5:35 pm |
  22. California Gary

    Now that the polls reflect more positively on Romney, I'll be expecting all those right-wing folks that said last week that the polls were skewed in favor of Obama to question this polling data as well. Or did the pollsters get it right this time? Have they changed their processes in how they poll, and now we can trust the polls again? Is that it? When the polls swing back in Obama's favor, will that signal that they are once again using the flawed process?

    October 8, 2012 05:35 pm at 5:35 pm |
  23. myviewis

    Only Romney can get this country up and running again, Romney can handle the economy and he can create jobs. Obama proved in the debate that he cannot handle the economy, has no vision for the future as to how to get this country up and running again. We cannot afford Obama 4 more years.

    October 8, 2012 05:36 pm at 5:36 pm |
  24. Anonymous

    according to what the bible teaches they obama and rommey are anti christ .

    October 8, 2012 05:36 pm at 5:36 pm |
  25. Peter

    "The Emperor Has No Clothes"

    Shine a light on our President and everyone can see that he has no clue about how wealth is created in the world. As Mr. Kudlow would say, "The Free Enterprise system is the best way to create prosperity". But, tell that to the President and his eyes look like a deer's eyes at night about to be run over by two headlights.

    Why would anyone still vote for 4 more years of this President.

    He has no plans. He has no leadership abilities. He has no clue.

    October 8, 2012 05:36 pm at 5:36 pm |
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