CNN Poll: Race tightening up in battleground Ohio
October 9th, 2012
04:00 PM ET
2 years ago

CNN Poll: Race tightening up in battleground Ohio

(CNN) - On the day that both presidential candidates are campaigning in Ohio, a new poll indicates a close contest in the race for the Buckeye State's 18 electoral votes.

According to a CNN/ORC International poll (PDF), 51% of likely voters in Ohio say they're backing President Barack Obama, with 47% supporting Republican nominee Mitt Romney. Obama's four point advantage is within the poll's sampling error.

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The survey, released Tuesday, was conducted October 5-8, entirely after last Wednesday's first presidential debate. Since non-partisan, live operator polls of likely voters in Ohio conducted prior to the debate indicated Obama with a 7-10 point advantage over the former Massachusetts governor, the new CNN survey suggests that Romney got a bounce following the debate.

The CNN poll indicates a wide gender gap, with Romney leading by 14 points among men and Obama ahead by 22 points among women voters.

"Independent voters, suburban voters, and older voters are all evenly divided, indicating a close race right now," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "But that's not a prediction of what will happen in November. With one in eight likely voters saying that they could change their minds between now and November, and several crucial debates still to come, there is every reason to expect the race to change in Ohio."

American Research Group is also out Tuesday with a poll in Ohio, with Romney at 48% and Obama at 47% among likely voters. ARG's previous Ohio survey, conducted in mid-September, had Obama at 48% and Romney at 47%.

"The new polls are a huge boost for Republicans, coming just a couple weeks after a string of polls made them wonder if there was any way to win without Ohio," says CNN Chief National Correspondent John King.

Three national polls released in the past 24 hours also indicate the race knotted up among likely voters. And two of the surveys, from ARG and Pew Research Center, also suggest a post debate bounce for Romney.

"There is clearly movement in Ohio similar to what we see nationally. You see it in our numbers. It's a very close race in Ohio and you feel it talking to people on the ground," adds King, who is reporting from the Buckeye State.

Ohio was the state that put President George W. Bush over the top in his 2004 re-election. Four years later Obama carried the state by five points over Sen. John McCain. But the Republicans performed well in the Buckeye state in the 2010 midterm elections, winning back the governor's office and five House seats from the Democrats.

This cycle Ohio is seeing an outsized amount of campaign traffic. Obama's Tuesday rally in Columbus is his 12th visit to the Buckeye state since the unofficial start of the general election campaign in early April. For Romney, his event Tuesday in Cuyahoga Falls is his 15th visit to Ohio in the same time period.

Overall, the campaigns, party committees, and super PACs and other independent groups have spent nearly $92 million to run ads on broadcast TV in Ohio since the start of the general election, with more than $20 million of that coming just in the last two weeks. Those figures come from Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political advertising for its clients.

"The governor still has problems here, especially with working women in the critical suburban areas. And the president benefits from an improving Ohio economy," says King. "But our numbers reinforce why there has been $90 million spent on presidential campaign TV ads the past six months: This is the battleground of the battlegrounds."

Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode are also on the presidential ballot in Ohio. When their names were added to the poll, Obama is at 48%, Romney 45%, with Johnson at 3%, Stein at 1% and Goode registering less than one-half of one percent.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International, with 1,020 Ohio adults, including 888 registered voters and 722 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

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Filed under: CNN/ORC poll • Mitt Romney • Ohio • President Obama
soundoff (252 Responses)
  1. boattown

    This is just one poll. A look at Real Clear Politics provides a clearer picture of what is happening.

    Romney is surging nationally and in the battleground states. Obama's support looks very shallow.

    This is about to take on an entirely different complextion. Nasty has not been seen like what we are about to have to go thru.

    October 9, 2012 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  2. I've

    I've flushed things down the toilet that have more "values" than a republican.

    October 9, 2012 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  3. Paul

    So 51% voting for America and 47% voting for Satan

    October 9, 2012 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  4. Nostrathomas

    Can we just get a leader this time around? Everybody that voted for Obama four years ago needs to ask themselves if he met their expectations. If he didn't, how much did he miss by, how will another four years in office improve the chances he meets those expectations and have they lowered their expectations, given the evidence Obama has proven he is not capable of inspiring members of congress to compromise, be productive, selfless and efficient in making the country a better place?

    October 9, 2012 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  5. Koch Brothers Exposed

    Romney: What? Birds vote? I am so sorry Big Bird & all your fine feathered little friends. I was completely wrong. I won't cancel your show. I am so very sorry. ROFLMAO!

    October 9, 2012 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  6. jonny

    Love CNN!!! Obama is up by 4 points, (moe 3.5) and yet if you just read the article without the poll numbers it sounds like Romney leading by 10 points.

    October 9, 2012 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  7. Ed in Reno, Nevada

    Isn't about time for Mitt to change his stance again?

    October 9, 2012 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  8. n

    The big lie continues and more sheep will be lead to the slaughter. Keep trusting big brother. Not the government but the unseen powers that be . . . Booo!

    October 9, 2012 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  9. BostonBlackie

    CNN poll disregard! Or give 5 pts to Romney. These libs skew polls in favor of Trauma Obama

    October 9, 2012 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  10. DustyOnes

    Odd. Two other Polls have it the other way around.

    October 9, 2012 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  11. cloudy in alaska

    Stick a fork in Romney, he's done.

    October 9, 2012 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  12. Ed in Reno, Nevada

    Oops, I left out a word...Isn't it about time for Mitt to change his stance again?

    October 9, 2012 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  13. edjwin

    So in the very next story after a piece on putting too much stock in polls, you do an in depth analysis of one poll?

    October 9, 2012 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  14. LowInfoVotersofAmerica

    Okay I just took a big sigh of relief. We still have control of this thing.

    October 9, 2012 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  15. jdoe

    They put out articles showing poll numbers. Then they put out articles questioning the validity of polls. Then more poll numbers. The media pretty makes up its own news.

    October 9, 2012 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  16. Jason

    All the right wingers yesterday was praising this PEW national poll that has romney leading. Yeah right, All Obama needs to do is WIN 2 or 3 of the battle states and its over. Ohio, VA, CO goes Obama game over.

    October 9, 2012 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  17. EndTheFed

    Elections are electronically rigged.

    If Obama or Romney win, the country will continue down the same path. Both are owned, neither of them care about you.

    October 9, 2012 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  18. Boo

    These polls are going to be all over the place for the next few weeks....it's crazy!

    October 9, 2012 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  19. ME

    Time to start getting nervous democrats

    October 9, 2012 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  20. Joe from CT, not Lieberman

    If Diebold's machines are still being used, Willard should capture at least 150% of the registered voters in Ohio.

    October 9, 2012 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  21. tis_twu

    Read it an weep Romney, you LSOS

    October 9, 2012 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  22. Steve

    And Rasmussen has Romney ahead in an overall poll of all the 11 key swing states with 146 electoral votes at stake as follows QUOTE "In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 49% support to Obama’s 47%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. " they additionally note that 45% of that percentage are "certain" they're voting Romney whiloe only 41% of that percent are "certain" they'll vote Obama. Who trusts BNN (the Barrack News Network) polls? Anybody that thinks when they read can tell they're trying to wag the dog with disinformation. Some will cheer that, some won't.

    October 9, 2012 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  23. soboyuppyrevenge

    ^0.5% is statistically insignificant genius.

    October 9, 2012 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  24. EddyL

    Then 47% of Ohio is made up of idiots.

    October 9, 2012 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  25. Bridget Mount

    media working hard to push us to think Obama is going to win, and thus influence people's opinions. Lay off already.

    October 9, 2012 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
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