National polls indicate dead heat in Obama-Romney battle
October 9th, 2012
01:59 PM ET
2 years ago

National polls indicate dead heat in Obama-Romney battle

Washington (CNN) - Three new national polls of likely voters released in the past 24 hours indicate the race for the White House is all knotted up and suggest that Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney got a bounce out of last Wednesday's first presidential debate.

According to a CNN Poll of Polls that averages all three non-partisan, live operator surveys, Romney has the support of 48% of likely voters, with President Barack Obama at 47%. While the CNN Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error, the margin is well within the sampling error of the three surveys averaged into the CNN Poll of Polls.

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The surveys are the Pew Research Center, which was conducted October 4-7 (entirely after the debate), American Research Group, which was conducted October 5-8 (entirely after the debate), and the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, which was conducted October 2-8 (partially before and mostly after the debate).

The Gallup daily tracking poll indicated Romney at 49% and Obama 47% among likely voters.

This is Gallup's first release of a tracking poll of likely voters, so no comparison can be made to pre-debate surveys from Gallup.

The ARG poll indicates the former Massachusetts governor at 48%, with Obama at 47%. According to ARG's previous poll, conducted Sept. 27-30, the president was at 49% and Romney at 46%.

The Pew Poll indicates Romney with a 49%-45% advantage over Obama. In Pew's previous survey, conducted in mid-September, the president had a 51%-43% lead among likely voters.

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Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • President Obama
soundoff (81 Responses)
  1. Marie MD

    Speaking of actors. The twit put on a wonderful performance while the President fell asleep but we ned to remember that this bully bishop hates the poor and that 47%+ of Americans that he now suddenly wants to embrace with those dirty little arms of his!
    He hasn't changed his spots. Now he is talking and agreeing with he same things the President has been saying for years and he has been for/against/for/against/for/against (I am getting dizzy here just typing about the flip flopping) since forever!!!

    October 9, 2012 02:04 pm at 2:04 pm |
  2. HOLY TIGHTY WHITIES WILLARD

    The only poll that counts is the one on 11/6/12.

    October 9, 2012 02:08 pm at 2:08 pm |
  3. California Gary

    So where is all the uproar from the GOP about the polling techniques? Are we now to believe the polling results after being told last week that they are totally invalid?

    October 9, 2012 02:10 pm at 2:10 pm |
  4. Thomas

    Mitt Romney's plan to help people with pre-existing medical conditions: hang on to your health insurance if you want to be protected.
    The GOP presidential candidate wants to help those who maintain continuous coverage, a fraction of a much bigger group of people at risk of getting turned down because of medical problems.
    Here's the catch: If you had a significant break in coverage, an insurer still could delve into your health care record, looking for anything — from a bad back to high blood pressure — that foreshadows future claims. They'd be able to turn you down.

    October 9, 2012 02:10 pm at 2:10 pm |
  5. Tomtomtom

    And it was Romney that brought up Big Bird. Now he is criticizing the Obama compaign for discussing it. Romney says his tax cut for the rich will be revenue neutral because he will close loopholes and deductions, but he won't say what those are. Instead he brings up cutting PBS support, which is ridiculous because it is so insignificant. Romney is the etch-a-scetch man, just as his campaign said he was.

    October 9, 2012 02:12 pm at 2:12 pm |
  6. truth hurts

    People saw Romney and liked what they saw. People heard Romney and liked what they heard. Obama was sleep walking through the debate, just like he has sleep walked through the last 4 years. He doesn't know how to lead. All he knows how to do is campaign and give teleprompter speeches. Another 4 years is this insanity and we're all toast. The American people have also come to that conclusion.

    October 9, 2012 02:13 pm at 2:13 pm |
  7. Planner922

    Romney dodged the Draft when he had the opportunity to serve the Armed Forces. Now he pretends to be supportive and to "stand up for America". Such a poser. And which Romney are we supposed to believe?

    October 9, 2012 02:15 pm at 2:15 pm |
  8. matt

    “WE HAVE TWO (2) CAMPS THIS ELECTION:
    …[1] CAMP 1 believes food, clothing, housing, education, and health care are RIGHTS…and even though half the nation disagrees with them, they still believe the OTHER half should pay for THEIR entitlements. They believe a GDP of $2.1T and BUDGET of $3.8T is “o.k.”…and the realities of Europe and economic laws DON’T MATTER.
    ...[2] CAMP 2 believes those things are NOT rights…in ANY constitution, nor in ANY nation on the planet…for a REASON…never were…never will be. If they were nothing would get done and everyone would just sit around waiting for others to pay for their entitlements. They believe $2.1T – $3.8T is imminent failure based on first grade math, logic, economic laws, Europe, and 4600 years of repeated history. They KNOW it is just a matter of time before REALITY and MATH catches up…and the “free stuff” mentality WILL come to an end. They KNOW we have to face those realities NOW…not defer them to our kids (and our kids’ kids) just so we can add 30 million MORE people to the “FREE STUFF” list.

    Sooner or later reality WILL catch up….and the “free stuff” Socialism movement WILL run out of OTHER people’s money to dole out. Defer economic laws all you like…sooner or later your entitlements WILL run out of money.

    October 9, 2012 02:17 pm at 2:17 pm |
  9. Borderless

    Famous Obama flip flops:
    GITMO
    Afghan war
    Working across the aisle to achieve bipartisan results
    Transparency
    Gay marriage
    Taxing the middle class.
    One thing Obama has done is to embrace the poor. So much so that low paying unskilled labor accounts for virtually all the job growth that got him to 7.8% unemployment, which is right where he found it.
    Romney/Ryan 2012

    October 9, 2012 02:18 pm at 2:18 pm |
  10. bbrooker88

    Romney is such a great leader that he became the republican nominee by default after the party had desperately tried out OTHER NOMINEE BUT HIM! He is anything BUT a leader.

    October 9, 2012 02:18 pm at 2:18 pm |
  11. matt

    “ROMNEY WILL TAKE AWAY YOUR HEALTH CARE AND SOCIAL SECURITY” …no Einstein…he won’t. That is a SURE sign a person has not ACTUALLY READ his plan…not to mention the obvious ugly truth: what part of “UNFUNDED LIABILITY” do people NOT UNDERSTAND !? The ENTIRE PROGRAM along with SOCIAL SECURITY becomes INSOLVENT after 2022 ! We are already GIVING OUT MORE THAN WHAT IS TAKEN IN…. That is directly from [1] treasury.gov [2] bls.gov and [3] your very own Geithner and Bernanke testifying before the Senate Budget Committee FEB 2012 (both of them stating “UNSUSTAINABLE”) . Arguing this is tantamount to arguing over ARRANGING THE DECK CHAIRS ON THE TITANIC for pete sake. Instead of choosing NOT to hand our kids OUR garbage...we are more worried about OUR OWN SELFISH SHORT TERM ISSUES !!!???? We are a sick bunch of entitlement junkies...who apparently cannot even function without a dependency umbilical cord attached to D.C. What happened to us? I won’t even MENTION the $690 BILLION Obama’s plan LEDGERED from Medicare in order to PAY for Obama care.

    October 9, 2012 02:18 pm at 2:18 pm |
  12. Gotta Be Kiddin

    So now the polls are right, according to the republicans! Has anyone noticed what's been going on with the stock market ever since Romney started to gain in the polls? Think people are getting nervous that Romney might actually win this. Market was doing great when Obama was well ahead. Ya'll might want to check on those 401Ks – just sayin'.

    October 9, 2012 02:19 pm at 2:19 pm |
  13. harry

    This Romney has only one plan to get powerful position and then screw this country's wealth in the hands of investing banking crooks to make profits for rich and wealthy.No wat he can create jobs and can not be trusted with his hidden taxes.

    October 9, 2012 02:21 pm at 2:21 pm |
  14. Keri

    I'm so glad to see other independent voters like myself seem to be truly looking at the candidates, their strengths and weaknesses, their positions and beliefs and seemingly deciding that we need to change course. President Obama has been in over his head since day one and the people he chose to surround himself with were also incompetent.
    November 7th will finally be a day when the American people can breathe again after 4 years of constant bad news and worry. Romney/Ryan!

    October 9, 2012 02:21 pm at 2:21 pm |
  15. Yonni

    What troubling is that amoral man seeking the highest office in the land, if he succeed there are at least other 15 Romanys running for the same office because have the money, the time and the connection what will stop them.

    October 9, 2012 02:24 pm at 2:24 pm |
  16. Stein

    "national polls indicate dead heat".....

    No they don't, they indicate Romney is running away with this.

    October 9, 2012 02:30 pm at 2:30 pm |
  17. ghostriter

    Matt, your side believed deficits didn't matter for 8 years. Now you wish to listen to them when they say spending is out of control Why do they only seem to care about spending when a democrat is in office?

    And if they really cared about spending, why is Romney actually increasing the amount spent on the military? We don't have it, we don't need it right now. So republicans don't care about spending. They only care if you are spending on what they think you should be. Them.

    October 9, 2012 02:30 pm at 2:30 pm |
  18. rs

    Funny, now Republicans belive polls again. Ah, that shifting landscape of their reality.

    October 9, 2012 02:31 pm at 2:31 pm |
  19. ExRepublican

    I dont care about no polls.. I am voteing for Obama and my friends, family, coworkers are voteing Obama,.
    We think Romney is a big liar and flip flop and everyone said they dont trust Romney.

    October 9, 2012 02:32 pm at 2:32 pm |
  20. Thomas

    @matt
    “WE HAVE TWO (2) CAMPS THIS ELECTION:
    …[1] CAMP 1 believes food, clothing, housing, education, and health care are RIGHTS…and even though half the nation disagrees with them, they still believe the OTHER half should pay for THEIR entitlements. They believe a GDP of $2.1T and BUDGET of $3.8T is “o.k.”…and the realities of Europe and economic laws DON’T MATTER.
    ...[2] CAMP 2 believes those things are NOT rights…in ANY constitution, nor in ANY nation on the planet…for a REASON…never were…never will be. If they were nothing would get done and everyone would just sit around waiting for others to pay for their entitlements. They believe $2.1T – $3.8T is imminent failure based on first grade math, logic, economic laws, Europe, and 4600 years of repeated history. They KNOW it is just a matter of time before REALITY and MATH catches up…and the “free stuff” mentality WILL come to an end. They KNOW we have to face those realities NOW…not defer them to our kids (and our kids’ kids) just so we can add 30 million MORE people to the “FREE STUFF” list.

    Sooner or later reality WILL catch up….and the “free stuff” Socialism movement WILL run out of OTHER people’s money to dole out. Defer economic laws all you like…sooner or later your entitlements WILL run out of money.

    -–

    You sound like a disgruntled banking employe who can no longer bundle derivatives and sell them at a triple A rate !

    Have you ever thought of moving to India and living your dream in a cast based society ?

    October 9, 2012 02:32 pm at 2:32 pm |
  21. rob

    @California Gary
    The great irony of your statement/question is that they are still skewing Dems in these polls. All the more reason to believe Romney in a landslide.

    Nov. 6th can't come fast enough.

    Romney/Ryan 2012

    October 9, 2012 02:34 pm at 2:34 pm |
  22. the situation

    No worries. Obama will regroup and Romney will screw up again to lose.

    October 9, 2012 02:35 pm at 2:35 pm |
  23. rs

    Matt-

    Solving "selfish issues" sort of pales against the reality of sending almost the entirety of the retired population to the gutter by doing away with Social Security and their healthcare. You radical righties are pathetic- you see the problem but not the people. Maybe if we funded Social Secirity and Medicare like say, we do the military (endless gobs of cash for useless wars), there would be real quality of life for Americans. This nation will never prosper if all it does is give endless giveaways to the rich (with borrowed money from China), and we create the largst population in poverty ever.

    October 9, 2012 02:36 pm at 2:36 pm |
  24. Tony

    Doesn't look like the Big Bird strategy is working out too well for Obama...Today is the first day this year that the Real Clear Politics Poll of Polls shows Romney ahead.

    The tide has turned!

    October 9, 2012 02:40 pm at 2:40 pm |
  25. lxunyc

    "According to a CNN Poll of Polls that averages all three non-partisan, live operator surveys, Romney has the support of 48% of likely voters, with President Barack Obama at 47%. "

    That's not accurate.

    For Obama, polling average is (47% + 47% + 45%) / 3 = 46.33%, LOWER than 47%; if you want a round number, it should be ROUNDED DOWN to 46% (which even a 4th grader knows).

    For Romney, it's (49% + 48% + 49%) / 3 = 48.67%; to get to a round number, it should be ROUNDED UP to 49%.

    Cannot even trust CNN to do Math without bias, let alone reporting.

    October 9, 2012 02:41 pm at 2:41 pm |
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