National polls indicate dead heat in Obama-Romney battle
October 9th, 2012
01:59 PM ET
2 years ago

National polls indicate dead heat in Obama-Romney battle

Washington (CNN) - Three new national polls of likely voters released in the past 24 hours indicate the race for the White House is all knotted up and suggest that Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney got a bounce out of last Wednesday's first presidential debate.

According to a CNN Poll of Polls that averages all three non-partisan, live operator surveys, Romney has the support of 48% of likely voters, with President Barack Obama at 47%. While the CNN Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error, the margin is well within the sampling error of the three surveys averaged into the CNN Poll of Polls.

– Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

– Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

The surveys are the Pew Research Center, which was conducted October 4-7 (entirely after the debate), American Research Group, which was conducted October 5-8 (entirely after the debate), and the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, which was conducted October 2-8 (partially before and mostly after the debate).

The Gallup daily tracking poll indicated Romney at 49% and Obama 47% among likely voters.

This is Gallup's first release of a tracking poll of likely voters, so no comparison can be made to pre-debate surveys from Gallup.

The ARG poll indicates the former Massachusetts governor at 48%, with Obama at 47%. According to ARG's previous poll, conducted Sept. 27-30, the president was at 49% and Romney at 46%.

The Pew Poll indicates Romney with a 49%-45% advantage over Obama. In Pew's previous survey, conducted in mid-September, the president had a 51%-43% lead among likely voters.

MORE FROM THE CNN POLITICAL TICKER:

Big Bird the focus in sarcastic new Obama ad

Romney revives 8% unemployment critique at rainy rally

Pastor at Ryan event once said Romney is not a Christian


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • President Obama
soundoff (81 Responses)
  1. Anthony

    Obama's poll numbers are down because many of his supporters are disappointed that he did not punch back in the debate. Obama thought that he did not need to attack, and worried about a backlash if he did, because before the debate Romney had run an utterly incompetent campaign and had shown no sign of life. Americans don't like people piling on. Well, Obama does not need to worry about a backlash anymore. It is time to take the gloves off. Obama knows how to attack. His ads on the 47% tape and Bain Capital prove it. Now he needs to do it in the debate. It is never too late. If Romney can bounce back from the 47% tape, Obama can bounce back from a bad debate.

    October 9, 2012 02:41 pm at 2:41 pm |
  2. DENNA

    Mittens was all fired up because he had been laying around Denver for three days. President Obama has a country to run so he was busy right up until the day of the debate. So yeah, the President wasn't up to par. The GOP was hoping for this so that their boy would have a better chance to getting in. If MItt does, a lot of you middle class people will suddenly find out your life isn't going to get any better. LOL My life has actually gotten better in the last year and I personally know someone who just got hired. So see, things are getting better, as the new unemployment numbers show. LOL I truly enjoyed the howling from the right when those figures went public. Can't have things improving right now, right?

    October 9, 2012 02:41 pm at 2:41 pm |
  3. Tony

    Doesn't look like the Big Bird strategy is working out too well for Obama...Today is the first day this year that the Poll of Polls shows Romney ahead.

    The tide has turned!

    October 9, 2012 02:41 pm at 2:41 pm |
  4. JimB

    Obama needs to up his game. Forget "the bird" and get back to Romney's lies. What happened to Romney and his tax plan and refusal to release his taxes? Most disturbing are the swing to Romney among women voters. How could this be? Have women been watching the GOP plans for birth control, health care, and reproductive rights? How could Obama let Romney get away with Medicare plan? I am so disappointed in Obama's lack of preparation. Next time don't visit the Hoover Dam, study...prepare...look him in the eye and professionally confront...

    October 9, 2012 02:43 pm at 2:43 pm |
  5. Facts don't LIE

    I guess the far right was correct the polls ARE skewed. Oh wait a minute, they're only skewed if OBAMA is leading them...MY BAD!!

    October 9, 2012 02:44 pm at 2:44 pm |
  6. rs

    BTW Matt- Take a look at the Ryan plan- it privatizes and limits Medicare spending, and the GOP has long wished to undo the single most successful social safety net ever made in America- Social Security (I guess they like the idea of Granny eating cat food in her "golden", non employee benefit years)).

    The truth is Mr. Romney is a plutocrat- there isn't anything he won't do to benefit the richest 1% of Americans like himself. He wants an America that can produce record numbers of millionaires and billionaires (through sweetheart tax breaks that create remarkably few jobs), but won't help the poor or unemployed-his theoretical 47%. THAT is his image for America- if you agree that's great. But if you aren't one of the 1% you are a fool.

    October 9, 2012 02:45 pm at 2:45 pm |
  7. CanadaONE

    HAZARD ALERT !!!!!!!!

    after what the GOP did to the US economy where Bush and his fellow GOPers like Romney and Ryan all fell a sleep at the switch RESULTING in a massive down turn – they counted on their conservative approach and it FAILED

    America why would you try it again?

    the GOPers approach is out of date in the 21st Century – no government – no country

    DO NOT BE FOOLED AGAIN!

    October 9, 2012 02:45 pm at 2:45 pm |
  8. Cannuck Guy

    Unreal that America is basing all the progress made by the president on one debate and a guy who is obviously not capable of practical sound judgements. As a Canadian who cannot vote in the American elections, in discussion with friends, they see a CLEAR difference with the current president and this guy trying to win the presidency.....First thing...it will be a terrible and frightening thought to the world if Mitt wins this election.......There will be total unrest in the world as they see this guy as a warmonger who the middle East will test often and quickly to see him committ American forces to many ungodly actions. He is RECKLESS, UNTRUTHFULL, FLIPS/FLOPS to anything for his benefit....In a nut shell Americans......YOU ARE ALL ON THE RIGHT TRACK to peace and stability....why ruin that?.be patient..it will happen soon.

    October 9, 2012 02:48 pm at 2:48 pm |
  9. Romney > obama

    If more people had watched the debate, Romney would be far ahead of obama. For the first time, the American public was able to see Romney without the interference of a left-leaning media OR the obama campaign's blatant lies.

    Romney >>> obama

    October 9, 2012 02:48 pm at 2:48 pm |
  10. Phil

    My favorite thing to read... "Romney Lies" If you can't recognize the lies from the Obama admin for the last 4 years then common sense says that you couldn't tell the difference between a lie and a truth. 2nd favorite thing to read "obama was busy running the country" Actually both Obama and Romney have had the same schedule pretty much. Traveling & Stumping on the campaign trail. Romney started prepping a few days early while Obama cont going to Party Rallies. Obama is lost with out a teleprompter. Obama=4 years of Failed Politics & Empty/Broken Promises! ROMNEY/RYAN 2012

    October 9, 2012 02:49 pm at 2:49 pm |
  11. caesaro

    The amount of lies...what is happening to America? We allow Romney to just lie and flat out lie to the American public and even the media has gone numb...it's ok to lie now in our faces. If he can lie that freely in a debate can you imagine what it will be like when he is president...so much for being a Mormon...maybe their 10 commandments are different than ours. Thou shalt lie a lot if it's for greed or power (GOP)

    October 9, 2012 02:50 pm at 2:50 pm |
  12. demwit

    What!? Romney's ahead now! But. but...
    CNN really needs a new polling director because their current fool is clueless..

    October 9, 2012 02:50 pm at 2:50 pm |
  13. albert Friday

    Obama is afraid if they get rid of Big Bird that he won’t have a debate coach.

    October 9, 2012 02:51 pm at 2:51 pm |
  14. demwit

    Might as well be watching Faux News. They had the same "likely voter" results months ago...

    October 9, 2012 02:52 pm at 2:52 pm |
  15. rrd

    DENNA

    Mittens was all fired up because he had been laying around Denver for three days. President Obama has a country to run so he was busy right up until the day of the debate.

    -------------------------------------

    Right busy campaigning, check his schedule.

    Obama Schedule || Monday, October 1, 2012

    by Keith Koffler on September 30, 2012, 9:54 pm

    The next three days will be devoted debate prep – including at least part of Wednesday, the day of the debate. Wednesday night’s event is in Denver, but Obama is preparing just outside of Las Vegas.

    October 9, 2012 02:52 pm at 2:52 pm |
  16. caesaro

    I am shocked in America you can lie a lot for president and nobody cares...right in our faces during the debates he lied and lied and lied and nobody is shocked..the media is now numb so many lies. I guess mormons have a different version of the 10 commandments...theirs says...thou shalt lie a lot if it's for greed or power.

    October 9, 2012 02:52 pm at 2:52 pm |
  17. rosco

    you dems have been beating the drum on obummer poll #s, so go suck an egg,

    the only poll that counts is called ELECTION RESULTS

    October 9, 2012 02:54 pm at 2:54 pm |
  18. sarah parcey

    If you are a woman and you vote fro Robme/aRyan YOU DESERVE TEH PAIN AND SUFFERING THAT WILL COME TO YOU AND YOUR DAUGHTERS

    October 9, 2012 02:54 pm at 2:54 pm |
  19. Howard

    Abraham Lincoln said: 'You can fool some of the people some of the time ... and, you can fool all the people some of the time ... but, you can't fool all of the people all of the time'.
    Americans have woken up, and are tired of being fooled by Obama ... in the past 4 years, he has nearly destroyed America. NOW, it's time for Barack and Michelle to abdicate their throne, so Mitt Romney can begin repairing the excessive damage caused by Obama's terrible policies. Good bye Barack, Michelle, Nancy, Harry, Jarret, and Axelrod, and all the unelected czars ... and, GOOD RIDDANCE TO YOU ALL ... I'm sure you all will find another way to pick the pockets of hard working Americans !!!

    October 9, 2012 02:56 pm at 2:56 pm |
  20. rrd

    Anthony

    Obama's poll numbers are down because many of his supporters are disappointed that he did not punch back in the debate. Obama thought that he did not need to attack, and worried about a backlash if he did,

    ----------------------------------------------–

    Obama didn't punch back because he didn't have a script on what to say.

    October 9, 2012 02:56 pm at 2:56 pm |
  21. once upon a horse

    if anyone should feel stupid about this it should be those on the right that threw their tantrums last week complaining the polls were skewed and fixed in favor of Obama. Now this week when they are starting to lean towards Romney all is well back in righty land. I think people are starting to notice that when things don't go the GOP's way they are quick to cry conspiracy and underhandethings going on instead of facing that it might be something they did that caused the issue. They need to come out of that right wing FoxNews bubble they live in a see the real world once in a while.

    October 9, 2012 02:57 pm at 2:57 pm |
  22. Fair is Fair

    HOLY TIGHTY WHITIES WILLARD

    The only poll that counts is the one on 11/6/12.
    ------
    Says the democrat when the numbers don't go his way.

    October 9, 2012 02:58 pm at 2:58 pm |
  23. Lynda/Minnesota

    Uh oh. Looks like GOPers finally found their new weathervane (or newest flavor of the month) .... again. Just goes to show why GOPer candidates get away with lying and obstructing. Apparently thats what their base most wants from their candidates. How anyone of them can say what Romney will actually DO as president is beyond comprehension.

    That in itself ought to be a big wake up call for ALL America.

    October 9, 2012 02:58 pm at 2:58 pm |
  24. gt

    obama had his chance..he had the senate with harry and the house with nancy...and he blew it...time for a change...

    October 9, 2012 03:00 pm at 3:00 pm |
  25. rs

    truth hurts-
    If you like the new liberal (or at least middle-of-the road) Romney that came out to play in the debate that's great. The truth is Mr. Romney couldn't tell the truth if his pants were on fire. The GOP lied that they were all about jobs in 2010, why in the world should we believe Mr. Romney when in his 47% video he stated that he didn't even need to do anything- the economy will just magically heal itself- that is simply delusional.

    October 9, 2012 03:00 pm at 3:00 pm |
1 2 3 4