Poll: Romney advantage in Florida
October 12th, 2012
10:07 AM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Romney advantage in Florida

(CNN) – A new poll of likely voters in Florida released Thursday indicates Republican nominee Mitt Romney has an edge over President Barack Obama in the state.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll shows Romney up seven percentage points with 51% of likely Florida voters' support to Obama's 44%. Romney's advantage is within the poll's sampling error. The same survey conducted one month ago showed a much tighter race between the candidates in the Sunshine State with Obama up 48% to Romney's 47%.

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The Florida survey was conducted entirely after the first presidential debate, following what was largely considered an unenthusiastic showing from the president. The Romney campaign capitalized on the GOP candidate's lauded performance while the president conceded Thursday that he had a "bad night" last week in Denver.

According to a CNN/ORC International survey conducted right after the debate, 67% of debate watchers questioned said that the Republican nominee won the contest, with one in four saying that President Barack Obama was victorious. National polls released in the days following the debate continued to indicate Romney received a post-debate bounce.

"There's no question in my mind that debate made people stand up and pay attention, and it really wiped away any questions people had about Romney, whether they were undecided or soft for Obama," Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research told the Tampa Bay Times.

An NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, however, released hours before Thursday's vice presidential debate indicated the candidates are in a dead heat among likely Florida voters with Obama at 48% and Romney at 47%. Obama had 47% and Romney had 46% in their poll from early last week.

Senior Obama adviser David Plouffe pushed back on the Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll's findings, telling the Times that the survey "is just not rooted in reality."

"We got 57 percent of the Latino vote, according to exit (polls) last time. We think we'll probably push 60 or above this time," Plouffe said Thursday. The campaign believes the president has an edge over Romney by a point or two and a floor support in the state of 47%.

Last month, polls showed Obama slightly ahead over Romney.

The latest CNN Poll of Polls - which is an average of six Florida polls of likely voters conducted over the past week two weeks - taken September 16-30 shows Obama with an advantage in the state, 50% to Romney's 45%.

The Times poll showed Romney ahead of Obama on a host of issues; including who likely voters believe would help improve the economy, protect Medicare – a boon for the state's large senior citizen population – and who is better looking out for the middle-class.

The battleground state holds a highly-contested 29 electoral votes and is considered a "toss up" on CNN's Electoral Map.

The president attended a campaign rally in Coral Gables, Florida Thursday before Vice President Joe Biden took the stage with Republican running mate Paul Ryan in Danville, Kentucky for the only vice presidential debate.

Shortly after the debate, Obama congratulated the vice president on what the campaign viewed as a stellar performance telling reporters in Washington that he "couldn't be prouder" of Biden. A CNN/ORC poll, nationwide poll conducted right after Thursday night's faceoff, showed debate watchers split over the winner of the match-up. Forty-eight percent of voters who watched the debate thought Ryan was victorious while 44% said Biden won. The Republican running mate's four point advantage among a debate audience that was more Republican than the country as a whole is within the survey's sampling error.

Though vice presidential debates are unlikely to tip the scales Thursday's survey in Florida as well as national polls suggest Romney's performance had an effect on voters.

The presidential contenders will square off for the second time in New York on October 16 in a debate moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald survey consisted of 800 telephone interviews of likely Florida voters and was conducted from October 8-10 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for the Times and its media partners. The poll's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Florida • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (324 Responses)
  1. BOB FROM BRIDGEPORT

    Obama 2012 / Biden 2016 Romney/Ryan SPIN DRY ...

    October 12, 2012 01:02 pm at 1:02 pm |
  2. RapidOne

    The last 4 years we recovered from Bush Jr. and Republicans mismanagement. The Obama administration helped us recover WHILE Republicans tried their best to destroy the country for political power. If Obama wins, then we get more recovery and the country betters itself. If Romney wins - well at least the foolish people voting for him and against their own well being will feel the pain for their ignorance first–namely the seniors, lower class, and those dependent in southern Republican states on federal assistance. Personally, I'm the last touched by the Republican mismanagement so it's a win-win for me.

    October 12, 2012 01:02 pm at 1:02 pm |
  3. adam

    This Ohioan decided to vote for Obama after last night's debate.

    October 12, 2012 01:03 pm at 1:03 pm |
  4. Delaware

    Give them the voucher and we need more wars because if we do not fight like Romney say we are not strong and less respested ok! Let us keep fighting wars on credit cards and send our young people to die for no cause. When was the last time wars make you more respected? I think we are less respected around the world for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and you better think again if you think them little Afghans and Iraqis love USA after we destroy their country. Wars give you more ennemies not more friends.

    October 12, 2012 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |
  5. Dennis

    Biden's embarrassing display of smirks, laughter, & smiles left a bad taste in the voters' mouths. He even lied about his own voting record! But that's all he has left with no record of achievement to run on. Even with the moderator propping him up and constantly interrupting Ryan, most voters still think Ryan was more likeable, which is a critical victory.

    October 12, 2012 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |
  6. Michelle

    Florida....what can one say? If Republicans can't get enough votes there they just cheat like they did in 2000. I think we should cut them off at the northern border and let the whole state float back to Cuba.

    October 12, 2012 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  7. saraph

    Just watched robme's rally in Virginia. Well, it really wasn't a rally. It was Mitt talking to fat old people who nodded a lot.

    October 12, 2012 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  8. RJ1008

    It's a Mason-Dixon Poll. They repeatedly showed McCain leading in swing states until the last minute during 2008 elections.

    October 12, 2012 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  9. Lita Latina

    I don't trust polls. CNN's poll results was 48% for Romney and 44% for Biden, no percentage for independents. CBS' results was 50% for Biden, 33% for Ryan and 19 for independents. What poll is telling us the true. I will vote on Nov. 6 and wait for the TRUE results.

    October 12, 2012 01:09 pm at 1:09 pm |
  10. Ribidit

    Liz – you know not of what you speak....good luck if Romney gets in. This country will be unrecognizable in 2 years and it will take DECADES to recover, if it EVER does. The entire middle class will suffer, ARE YOU LISTENING?...I will NEVER understand why you can't see this. I will be outta here, as I REFUSE to live in a country governed by the likes of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.

    October 12, 2012 01:09 pm at 1:09 pm |
  11. Jeremy

    It amazed me that most social issues have taken a back seat to the economic issues. There is only one nation that has been successful with that formula for politics, and that nation is China. So if you want to vote for Romney, purely based on economic resolves – which started out as a 52 point plan that has been whittled down to 5 points, and the means by which to achieve those ends aren't explained clearly – then you should already have an idea of where we are going. President Obama may not be the best for the country but he is far better qualified to lead than Mitt Romney.

    October 12, 2012 01:09 pm at 1:09 pm |
  12. FLIndependent

    If this rings true the seniors and those just under 55 need to wake up!! It was clearly stated last night that Obama/Biden have and will work to save Medicare (a Dem program) and the R&R team will give us vouchers. :Please ask yourselves, why would the Republicans want to continue a program they've always been against if they have an opportunity to get rid of it. They are only saying it won't change for seniors to get their vote but even if that's the case, don't you care about your children that have worked for that all their lives?

    October 12, 2012 01:09 pm at 1:09 pm |
  13. Ling

    When I was driving this morning, Romney was talking on 97.1 in his slick “military-inspired” mode, with his voice trembling and very concerned about the prospects of future dangers to the US and how he will not let US fall down by increasing the defense budget. Gosh, will we live the next 4 years like in 1999-2003, listening to how “the winning US army” advances deeper in Syria??

    October 12, 2012 01:12 pm at 1:12 pm |
  14. Jerry

    Romney is a joke. I hate him and his Views. He will stick to those engrained controlling and socialistic Mormon views. He is a liar and every time he has opened his fat mouth to the world like they care what he has to say what spews out of there has been nothing but an embarrassment to him and our country. He thinks that we are in the 1950's where the USA just says to the world what it wants and they all comply because we have the Bomb. Well those days are way over, We do not have that pull we work with other nations on world problems. We have given women rights over their own body and should keep them, Gays have rights and they should be expanded, This guy will try and change all that progress.

    October 12, 2012 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |
  15. Ancient Texan

    Craig Adams MD- As an old Texas Senior, I disagree. Obama and the Dims have NO plan to save Medicare and if it is not reformed and fine tuned it will just disappear leaving Seniors without coverage or hope. I will vote for Romney/Ryan, never never Obama.

    October 12, 2012 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |
  16. Scott

    OUTSTANDING! Now Micheal needs to start packing :)

    Scott

    October 12, 2012 01:14 pm at 1:14 pm |
  17. Clear minded

    Biden appeared as an argumentative, slightly addled driver who was pulled over by Officer Ryan to receive a speeding ticket. Last night we saw a Sarah Palin on stage, but this time his name was Joe Biden....

    October 12, 2012 01:14 pm at 1:14 pm |
  18. Jim

    I don't know what all these slanted viewers were watching last night. Both debaters dodged questions and put their party's spin on the answers. There might have well been no questions at all. I am a middle class independent voter that is undecided. I watched the debate with my neighbors, mostly independent non-committed voters, ane we agreed the answers from both candidates were all over the map. Ryan came across as articulate and bright and Biden came across as somewhat confused and overly animated when he wasn't speaking, often blurting out terms in order to get credit for them. For us that seemed to be the difference. We all agreed that given the weak substance that came from both candidates, Ryan was the winner. Will this make us all vote R&R versus Obama/Biden? Most likely not, but it did make us more comfortable with a Republican choice versus the last election where Palin was the #2. The race is by no means a slam dunk for either team unless you are a dyed in the wool Republican or Democrat who has blinders on for their party's candidate. There seem to be a whole lot of them posting here.

    October 12, 2012 01:14 pm at 1:14 pm |
  19. HOLY TIGHY WHITIES WILLARD

    @ Critical Thinking

    No republican has ever won the Presidency without winning Ohio. Willard is not looking good by no means in Ohio. Virginia is Obama country! I know this because I live here. In comparison to the 2008 campaign of McCain to Robmey's, McCain had yard signs everywhere and he still lost VA. You hardly see any Robmey signs. So, I'm sorry to break the bad news to you, but you'll have to live under another 4 years of tyranny and oppression under President Barack Hussein Obama. Have a nice day!

    October 12, 2012 01:14 pm at 1:14 pm |
  20. Anonymous

    My personal favorite part of the debate was when the moderator asked Ryan specifically what his facts were in regards to taxes, and Ryan completely avoided the question! I'm an independent from Wisconsin and Ryan has had controversial budget plans since he was in office.

    October 12, 2012 01:15 pm at 1:15 pm |
  21. Opposition

    Save the small Hedge Fund Business, and drop the senior safety net. Vote Romney Florida!

    October 12, 2012 01:15 pm at 1:15 pm |
  22. Dick Harris

    I was disappointed in Mr.Biden ,I didn't like his smile every time he didn't like what
    Mr Ryan said.My dog does the same thing by showing his teeth.
    It could be, he was had a contract with Colgate

    October 12, 2012 01:15 pm at 1:15 pm |
  23. Shared_gum

    Wait a minute – so Romney is up by seven points in one poll, and Obama is up by one point in another in Florida for the same time period? I don't remember the polls being so far apart in other presidential elections.

    October 12, 2012 01:15 pm at 1:15 pm |
  24. Ralph

    The tides have turned, the Romeny support is on the rise and the Democrats have been caught with their pants down. I have been a strong Obama supporter for the last four years but I have come to one conclusion that forces me to vote for Romney. This administration appears to think that its current course is good for our country and are not speaking of or showing change that we all know is neccessary for economic growth and a brighter future. Romeny may offer that, I cant say for sure but I can say without a doubt that our current administration has failed. Obama couldnt defend himself in the debate and Biden responce was arrogant and rude and did not have me feel that he was Presidential material in the least. We try and demonize the Republicans but then act as we claim they are, Time to give a new man a four year shot at it, if he fails then we vote him out too.

    October 12, 2012 01:16 pm at 1:16 pm |
  25. California Gary

    I think the election was won last night when Biden looked straight into the camera and asked "Who are you going to trust on Medicare, the party that created it and has defended it all these years, or those guys who want to change it into a voucher system?" I just wish he had quoted Newt from back in the 90's when he said he wanted to cut the life blood to Medicare and watch it wither on the vine and die. That is the Romney/Ryan plan in a nutshell. By the way, malarky is my new favorite word...........

    October 12, 2012 01:18 pm at 1:18 pm |
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