Poll: Romney advantage in Florida
October 12th, 2012
10:07 AM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Romney advantage in Florida

(CNN) – A new poll of likely voters in Florida released Thursday indicates Republican nominee Mitt Romney has an edge over President Barack Obama in the state.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll shows Romney up seven percentage points with 51% of likely Florida voters' support to Obama's 44%. Romney's advantage is within the poll's sampling error. The same survey conducted one month ago showed a much tighter race between the candidates in the Sunshine State with Obama up 48% to Romney's 47%.

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The Florida survey was conducted entirely after the first presidential debate, following what was largely considered an unenthusiastic showing from the president. The Romney campaign capitalized on the GOP candidate's lauded performance while the president conceded Thursday that he had a "bad night" last week in Denver.

According to a CNN/ORC International survey conducted right after the debate, 67% of debate watchers questioned said that the Republican nominee won the contest, with one in four saying that President Barack Obama was victorious. National polls released in the days following the debate continued to indicate Romney received a post-debate bounce.

"There's no question in my mind that debate made people stand up and pay attention, and it really wiped away any questions people had about Romney, whether they were undecided or soft for Obama," Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research told the Tampa Bay Times.

An NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, however, released hours before Thursday's vice presidential debate indicated the candidates are in a dead heat among likely Florida voters with Obama at 48% and Romney at 47%. Obama had 47% and Romney had 46% in their poll from early last week.

Senior Obama adviser David Plouffe pushed back on the Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll's findings, telling the Times that the survey "is just not rooted in reality."

"We got 57 percent of the Latino vote, according to exit (polls) last time. We think we'll probably push 60 or above this time," Plouffe said Thursday. The campaign believes the president has an edge over Romney by a point or two and a floor support in the state of 47%.

Last month, polls showed Obama slightly ahead over Romney.

The latest CNN Poll of Polls - which is an average of six Florida polls of likely voters conducted over the past week two weeks - taken September 16-30 shows Obama with an advantage in the state, 50% to Romney's 45%.

The Times poll showed Romney ahead of Obama on a host of issues; including who likely voters believe would help improve the economy, protect Medicare – a boon for the state's large senior citizen population – and who is better looking out for the middle-class.

The battleground state holds a highly-contested 29 electoral votes and is considered a "toss up" on CNN's Electoral Map.

The president attended a campaign rally in Coral Gables, Florida Thursday before Vice President Joe Biden took the stage with Republican running mate Paul Ryan in Danville, Kentucky for the only vice presidential debate.

Shortly after the debate, Obama congratulated the vice president on what the campaign viewed as a stellar performance telling reporters in Washington that he "couldn't be prouder" of Biden. A CNN/ORC poll, nationwide poll conducted right after Thursday night's faceoff, showed debate watchers split over the winner of the match-up. Forty-eight percent of voters who watched the debate thought Ryan was victorious while 44% said Biden won. The Republican running mate's four point advantage among a debate audience that was more Republican than the country as a whole is within the survey's sampling error.

Though vice presidential debates are unlikely to tip the scales Thursday's survey in Florida as well as national polls suggest Romney's performance had an effect on voters.

The presidential contenders will square off for the second time in New York on October 16 in a debate moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald survey consisted of 800 telephone interviews of likely Florida voters and was conducted from October 8-10 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for the Times and its media partners. The poll's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Florida • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (324 Responses)
  1. BobRayTalbot

    How is anyone supposed to take CNN seriously when your reporters can't read poll numbers? First, she says that Romney is up by seven points which, she says, is within the poll's sampling error. Huh? I've never seen a poll with that kind of sampling error that was a poll worth quoting. Then later in the story she says that the sampling error is 3.5 points. Get a grip on your bias.

    October 12, 2012 01:23 pm at 1:23 pm |
  2. AgentProvoca

    Polls today indicate the outcome of last night's vice presidential debate as follows:
    ● 1/3 of registered voters say Joe Biden won the debate
    ● 1/3 of registered voters say Paul Ryan won the debate
    ● 1/3 of registered voters say they're unsure who won the debate, but they are sure that Barack Obama isn't going to be reelected

    October 12, 2012 01:23 pm at 1:23 pm |
  3. Patrick Lewis

    Romney looks good..... until you think about what he'll actually do. Then you realize he's flip flopped so many times you have NO IDEA what he will do. You may not have liked Obama's policies, You may have seen Obama fall short of his own predictions, but Obama actually did what he said he would do.

    I also find it interesting that tkinil has figured out how to cut and paste.

    October 12, 2012 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  4. These are no Debate Debates

    If you call these debates... A question is asked and there is only time for a rebutal and no time to give your side of the debate. Romney/Ryan have not given anyone the meat of there positions except to say we will leave it up to congress. A congress that clearly supports the 1%. Romney has already expressed how he feels about the 47%. How quickly people forget. Seniors, military, poor..... You are freeloaders and need to get over yourself if you vote for the Ryan/Romney Ticket. Where are peoples brains that you don't understand the facts. ROmney/Ryan ticket is all about smoke screens and when they get in office the smoke will clear and you will pay for it! Let's get real!

    October 12, 2012 01:25 pm at 1:25 pm |
  5. Isabella Dominguez

    Romney.Ryan all the way....go Florida! You are not going to be fooled again. R/R signs are everywhere I go in my city and people are excited about a change in the Whitehouse....R/R has four years to straighten out this economy even they do not get the job done then they will get replaced as well. People in Florida are suffering....many people I talk including my family has lost jobs or business! We can not afford more of the last four years!!!!

    October 12, 2012 01:26 pm at 1:26 pm |
  6. Nancy ER Doc Orlando

    I just don't understand what is the confusion. Seniors will suffer here in orlando if Romney wins. Medicare will be toast and SS will be destroyed if you allow them to win. Honestly, I hope Romney wins and makes those changes. Then people will finally wake up and see what will happen. But, for many seniors it will be too late. Go and do your research seniors, go contact AARP.

    October 12, 2012 01:26 pm at 1:26 pm |
  7. Robert Forant

    That's why Bill Maher calls Florida "Welcome to Stupidville

    October 12, 2012 01:27 pm at 1:27 pm |
  8. Becky

    Romney/Ryan for a better financial country for us and for our children and children's children!

    October 12, 2012 01:29 pm at 1:29 pm |
  9. HJ

    @ Critical Thinking, sounds like you are doing wishful thinking to me. Romney still has a difficult road to win the electoral college vote, even with FL. W/O FL, he has literally no chance.

    October 12, 2012 01:29 pm at 1:29 pm |
  10. Beverly - NYC

    Guess Grandma doesn't mind paying more for healthcare. Please someone explain to me what Romeny and Ryan have said that gives you comfort.

    To Liz @12:47 do you want to see Romney's transcpripts & tax returns also? Or just President Obama's, because anyone black, whose overcome the bar set by in most cases Whites, must have done something fishy to get over right ? Something tells me youou probaly voted twice for the last C student, stayed quiet for 8 years though the mess he created, Please take your meds, if yoy believe someone who lies to you and has his staff quietly walk back what he says is "Presidential Smart".

    October 12, 2012 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |
  11. Khaleeshi

    Are you seniors in Florida really going to vote for a guy that's going to destroy medicare for a worthless voucher? I've paid into this system my entire working life and I don't want a stinkin voucher. I don't want my social security privatized. I don't want to pay more in taxes so the wealthy can pay even less.

    Obama/Biden 2012

    October 12, 2012 01:31 pm at 1:31 pm |
  12. Biden is honest. Got to love him!

    Biden is honest and smart. The lies Ryan told last night were laughable. Biden underestimated people to think they were smarter than they were. I thought that too. People eat up the lies than will complain....Where is my social security, where is my medicare, where are my benefits for vets. Oh and by the way, Bush cut medical for the vets and the congress wouldn't vote for it either. Democrats did put up a bill to protect our votes and they are trying to protect our seniors and poor. All the Republicans can say is give the rich there cuts and we will give you the rest. Please! Are we really that dumb?

    October 12, 2012 01:34 pm at 1:34 pm |
  13. penelope

    I live in Florida and I received a call last week from someone taking a poll. She asked me if I supported O'Bama and I said absolutely. She then said in a disbelieving voice, you support him ABSOLUTELY? So, I think that the polls can be swayed by the poll taker. If they call someone who they can manipulate, then the poll will be more or less the opinion of the poll taker.

    October 12, 2012 01:37 pm at 1:37 pm |
  14. true blue

    Im sorry folks. if you accept this Romney/Ryan ticket you will all be placed out on the streets 6500 dollars a year ticket for health please look at your last bill, just remember you will be limited of visits. And the cold weather isn't the elderly best friend.

    October 12, 2012 01:38 pm at 1:38 pm |
  15. curious

    The Obama presidency has exposed the majority in this country as racist biggots. If you are African American, Latin American, Arab American they hate you.

    October 12, 2012 01:39 pm at 1:39 pm |
  16. North of the 49th

    So when do you R&R supporters figure on getting some real answers to some of the economic questions they seem loath to answer? Like which tax loopholes for the rich do they plan to close and how will that pay for a neutral debt ratio while ramping up the war machine? They seem long on PLANS but short on the How. Here is a Canadian suggestion: Create a federal 3% Goods and Services Tax. Ours is 5> This would generate around 1.3 Trillion in extra revenue. Tax the heck out of tobacco products and booze like we do. Huge revenue stream there! Raise personal income tax on the wealthy to 50%. They can afford it. Decrease middle and low income earners taxes so they can become good consumers again so business increases and jobs are thereby created. Just a few thoughts from the stable economy to the north.

    October 12, 2012 01:39 pm at 1:39 pm |
  17. Sue

    I do believe that any senior citizen in the state of Florida who believes that Romney and Ryan will save Medicare has spent too much time in the sun and it's addled their brain! Don't they listen to what Paul Ryan has been saying in regards to Medicare? If Romney is elected, these republicans in Florida will get exactly what they deserve!

    October 12, 2012 01:40 pm at 1:40 pm |
  18. Lib

    Paul Ryan looked goofy as ever. Amazing how much he has people fooled in thinking he is so great with math. Biden looked very experienced and presidential.

    October 12, 2012 01:42 pm at 1:42 pm |
  19. Randy Owen

    Romney will destroy medicare?? lol that's funny Craig. I think you have Romney and satan...um Obama I mean...mixed up! Dems don't like the old. Just the poor and ignorant. that's how they get elected in the first place!

    October 12, 2012 01:44 pm at 1:44 pm |
  20. FactCheck

    I find it interesting overnight just a few blocks I must drive thru to get to my home (these are blocks of straight up middle/lower class), just overnight the Ryan/Romney signs have sprung up on nearly every lawn.
    -------

    You must live in the Cayman Islands. Or maybe Somalia. I live in a very red part of a very red state. There are GOP Senate and House candidate signs up and down the state. I can count on one hand the number of Romeny signs.

    October 12, 2012 01:45 pm at 1:45 pm |
  21. Mother of 4

    How can anyone listen to Biden's lies about Libya. Then he sits and laughs. Really?? The death of 4 Americans is not a laughing matter.

    October 12, 2012 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  22. Michael

    The facts of what Romney would do to the 47% were loud and clear. Not only that but what Romney would do for Roe vs. Wade if he ever gets nominated to the white house. We will be going backwards and the rich will get their tax breaks that are really need in the middle class as Joe states clearly! I vote for the middle class and Obama n Joe will always back them up!

    October 12, 2012 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  23. Veritas

    Obama campaign – "We got 57 percent of the Latino vote.."

    Is it just me, or does anyone else find it odd that the Romney campaign is relying on ideas, while the Obama campaign is relying on race-politics? Isn't that, well, kind of racist?

    October 12, 2012 01:48 pm at 1:48 pm |
  24. jackthegeek

    A victory for Romney-Ryan team. I wish I logged in last night so I could be added on Ryan's tally, but anyway the Independents had spoken. I'm tired of Obama-Biden lies, lies, lies.

    October 12, 2012 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
  25. robert

    if anyone wants to know why not to vote for romney. Go watch great atheist on youtube about republicans . Good facts. Republicans are completely dumb. Obama best president ever. Though they are too ignorant and follow the views of people like rush limbo and romney and sarah palin . They blame obama for socialism. If obama was such a socialist. Why the hell hasn't he thrown all you tea party people in jail like what a real socialist would do. God republicans are so mindless. They are lowest people in the country. Stop blaming the economy on obama and start blaming it on people like romney and crap. It is there fault the economy is in crap.

    October 12, 2012 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
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