Poll: Romney advantage in Florida
October 12th, 2012
10:07 AM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Romney advantage in Florida

(CNN) – A new poll of likely voters in Florida released Thursday indicates Republican nominee Mitt Romney has an edge over President Barack Obama in the state.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll shows Romney up seven percentage points with 51% of likely Florida voters' support to Obama's 44%. Romney's advantage is within the poll's sampling error. The same survey conducted one month ago showed a much tighter race between the candidates in the Sunshine State with Obama up 48% to Romney's 47%.

– Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

– Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

The Florida survey was conducted entirely after the first presidential debate, following what was largely considered an unenthusiastic showing from the president. The Romney campaign capitalized on the GOP candidate's lauded performance while the president conceded Thursday that he had a "bad night" last week in Denver.

According to a CNN/ORC International survey conducted right after the debate, 67% of debate watchers questioned said that the Republican nominee won the contest, with one in four saying that President Barack Obama was victorious. National polls released in the days following the debate continued to indicate Romney received a post-debate bounce.

"There's no question in my mind that debate made people stand up and pay attention, and it really wiped away any questions people had about Romney, whether they were undecided or soft for Obama," Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research told the Tampa Bay Times.

An NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, however, released hours before Thursday's vice presidential debate indicated the candidates are in a dead heat among likely Florida voters with Obama at 48% and Romney at 47%. Obama had 47% and Romney had 46% in their poll from early last week.

Senior Obama adviser David Plouffe pushed back on the Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll's findings, telling the Times that the survey "is just not rooted in reality."

"We got 57 percent of the Latino vote, according to exit (polls) last time. We think we'll probably push 60 or above this time," Plouffe said Thursday. The campaign believes the president has an edge over Romney by a point or two and a floor support in the state of 47%.

Last month, polls showed Obama slightly ahead over Romney.

The latest CNN Poll of Polls - which is an average of six Florida polls of likely voters conducted over the past week two weeks - taken September 16-30 shows Obama with an advantage in the state, 50% to Romney's 45%.

The Times poll showed Romney ahead of Obama on a host of issues; including who likely voters believe would help improve the economy, protect Medicare – a boon for the state's large senior citizen population – and who is better looking out for the middle-class.

The battleground state holds a highly-contested 29 electoral votes and is considered a "toss up" on CNN's Electoral Map.

The president attended a campaign rally in Coral Gables, Florida Thursday before Vice President Joe Biden took the stage with Republican running mate Paul Ryan in Danville, Kentucky for the only vice presidential debate.

Shortly after the debate, Obama congratulated the vice president on what the campaign viewed as a stellar performance telling reporters in Washington that he "couldn't be prouder" of Biden. A CNN/ORC poll, nationwide poll conducted right after Thursday night's faceoff, showed debate watchers split over the winner of the match-up. Forty-eight percent of voters who watched the debate thought Ryan was victorious while 44% said Biden won. The Republican running mate's four point advantage among a debate audience that was more Republican than the country as a whole is within the survey's sampling error.

Though vice presidential debates are unlikely to tip the scales Thursday's survey in Florida as well as national polls suggest Romney's performance had an effect on voters.

The presidential contenders will square off for the second time in New York on October 16 in a debate moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald survey consisted of 800 telephone interviews of likely Florida voters and was conducted from October 8-10 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for the Times and its media partners. The poll's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Florida • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (324 Responses)
  1. Name s kel

    Its time to bury the devil,vote the tea out!

    October 12, 2012 11:02 am at 11:02 am |
  2. Rolly Vincoy

    Biden is caught lying. He did vote for the two wars but says he opposed it. He is a liar. He only professes his Catholic faith if it suits him. What an immoral person. There is a difference between flat out lying and half-truths (highlighting a point and ignoring the rest, rounding of numbers, stating an opinion as fact even though others claim it is false). All politicians say half-truths but only the immoral ones, like Biden, would flat out lie on national tv. And the worst part is the media is not calling him on it but the media will go along with or report that the Obama campaign thinks Romney is a liar with no proof to the contrary.

    October 12, 2012 11:03 am at 11:03 am |
  3. Jason

    It must be those 7,000 employees that the CEO threatened to fire if Obama wins.

    October 12, 2012 11:04 am at 11:04 am |
  4. Paul

    Just proves old people are senile. Hopefully Romney yanks their medicare and social security, so they die off faster.

    October 12, 2012 11:05 am at 11:05 am |
  5. Dan

    What was the percent of cell phones vs land lines?

    October 12, 2012 11:05 am at 11:05 am |
  6. Woman In California

    IF by chance this is true, it won't last long because seniors and those "youth" Ryan refers to, will realize Medicare is a big issue and so is the chance of going to yet another war and then, Obama will regain his lead.

    October 12, 2012 11:06 am at 11:06 am |
  7. al in memphis

    About a year ago, a very prominent CEO said the next president will have an easier go it when it comes to getting things done. Mostly because the hole the economy and world activities where in were getting better and the next president would not have to deal with such overwhelming issues. That should tell voters something about the foundation that was laid by this administration. It easier to deal with an economy that producing 150,000 jobs a month than one that losing 750,000 jobs a month.

    October 12, 2012 11:09 am at 11:09 am |
  8. us_1776

    Please, gimme a break.

    TBT/BayNews9/MiamiHerald all fawn over the GOP.

    I would never trust any of their polls.

    .

    October 12, 2012 11:10 am at 11:10 am |
  9. Richard

    A poll with a sampling error of more than 7% is a joke. CNN, as a news source, you should know that any poll with a sampling error greater than 4% is not even worth mentioning. What a joke.

    October 12, 2012 11:11 am at 11:11 am |
  10. carlos

    what a disgrace it will be to have the two LIARS willard and ryand in charge.
    willard the cheater, liar, deceiver and ruining lives all along and leading the pack?....UGH!

    October 12, 2012 11:13 am at 11:13 am |
  11. Namehardball

    Four died and this administration lied.

    October 12, 2012 11:14 am at 11:14 am |
  12. mike

    Obama is sinking like the fake man he is.

    October 12, 2012 11:14 am at 11:14 am |
  13. obamaphone

    Come on Florida! Vote Obama so I can keep my free obamaphone and all my gov't handouts! I don't want to work!! Obama makes that possible. Romney will make me have to work for a living. VOTE OBAMA!

    October 12, 2012 11:15 am at 11:15 am |
  14. Nate

    This would have been a yellow line across the top and "BREAKING NEWS" had the news been in Obama's favor.

    October 12, 2012 11:15 am at 11:15 am |
  15. zzzzz

    Seniors in FL, if you love Romeny so much it is
    time to kill the Medicare for the seniors too...
    You paid ~$150K in the system and are getting out ~$250K.
    We are payung for it.
    You love SS and MC but do notsupport it for your children and grandkids!?
    Selfish!

    October 12, 2012 11:16 am at 11:16 am |
  16. Alina77

    Please Florida don't do the same mistake as what you did with electing Bush... then simply said 'Oh well it didn't worked out".

    October 12, 2012 11:16 am at 11:16 am |
  17. itsmejc

    LMAO! 30 days ago it was the "LIBERAL MEDIA" tainting the polls! Now all is well again huh repubs?!?!? YOUR IGNORANCE IS SAD! Just wait till Romney gets called out on social issues and foreign affairs. I bet you anything you tools will be crying about the "liberal media" once again.

    October 12, 2012 11:17 am at 11:17 am |
  18. D. Johnson

    Well, no accounting for abject stupidity.

    October 12, 2012 11:17 am at 11:17 am |
  19. Chris in NY

    These polls are getting tiring. I know these people have a job to do but how do these serve the people's purpose. It's not like campaigns don't have their own pollsters.

    October 12, 2012 11:20 am at 11:20 am |
  20. Bob

    Wow...a 7pt swing...and even with democrat oversampling! Now we just need Ohio and its over for Obama and his unAmerican administration.

    I've heard several Company CEOs are flatly telling employees that Obamacare will raise healthcare insurance rates in Jan. GOOD! The truth is finally out. No where for the Democrats to hide...bye bye.

    October 12, 2012 11:20 am at 11:20 am |
  21. JoeyE

    never trust florida EVER! always rigged on election every time :P

    October 12, 2012 11:20 am at 11:20 am |
  22. sayer

    Mitt hides money, taxes, and specifics. Romney cannot take a stand on anything. Michigan and Massachusetts don't want Mitt. R & R have no problem lying to us. The repubs cause the debt & deficit and high unemployment and vow to do everything they can stop progress in those areas and then President Obama for high debt and unemployment. This former republican couple is voting a straight Democratic ticket this November.

    October 12, 2012 11:21 am at 11:21 am |
  23. Gary

    Gotta love these folks that were all enthralled as Romney bullied the moderator and the tried to interuput the president whenever he could get away with it that are now saying that that Biden as rude. Hipocracy in action again.

    October 12, 2012 11:22 am at 11:22 am |
  24. Really Hilarious

    Folks are really calling Obama a liar when the fact checkers constantly call out Romney/Ryan?

    October 12, 2012 11:22 am at 11:22 am |
  25. Leo

    two words for biden. retirment home! thats where biden belongs. RYAN was the better man. calm and respectfull!

    October 12, 2012 11:22 am at 11:22 am |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13